Clusterfuck Summary Corner

also summarizing ilx: i have no idea why there is a 300+ post clusterfuck that's apparently about tax law in I Love Baseball

if you don't follow baseball I'll sum it up, there is a dude from Japan who is a baseball freak of nature, who is doing things that either have never been done or haven't been done in 100 years, and he just signed a $700 million/10 year contract with the Dodgers and we're just now finding out that he's actually deferring $680 million of that until after his contract is done and I think everyone is mostly stunned that there are no rules preventing this sort of thing from taking place

He also has torn his UCL twice which is probably the most critical ligament in a pitcher's body. Earlier this year I looked up statistics of the 6 pitchers in MLB history who have had TJ surgery twice and only one performed above replacement level after the second surgery.

I know he has a wonky ankle which prevents him from playing a position (he only played 61 games in his last season in Japan) but I have a suspicion that a lot of his other injuries were masking larger ones related to his UCL (blisters/oblique/cramping).

He'll also turn 30 a few months into next season which is an age correlated to a decline in performance:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/agecurve_wrc.png

Earlier this year I looked up statistics of the 6 pitchers in MLB history who have had TJ surgery twice and only one performed above replacement level after the second surgery.

nbd and maybe we can bring this back to ILB, but who was the one pitcher, and by "performed above replacement level" do you mean their entire career after the second TJ, or a single season of above-replacement? (asking because degrom comes to mind, ryu, eovaldi, others)

I can't be arsed with that thread lol.

DeGrom has not pitched since his 2nd TJ (June 2023) and is timetabled to potentially return August 2024. STEAMER projects Jake for 0.0 WAR if/when he returns in 2024.

Ryu only pitched about 1/3 of the 2023 season since he returned from his 2nd TJ, he put up a 0.4 fWAR/bWAR going 3W-3L in 11 GS, 3.46 ERA, overall velo down about 3-4% from prior seasons, and his K/BB was his worst in 7 seasons. STEAMER projects him at 1.8 fWAR for 2024 (8W-9L in 26 GS, 4.35 ERA).

Eovaldi was the one pitcher who I noted performed well above replacement level for having 2 TJs (1.58 bWAR avg since return).

Some of the other notables were Jameson Taillon (1.2 bWAR avg since return), Daniel Hudson (0.5 bWAR avg since return), Joakam Soria (0.4 bWAR avg since return), & Chris Capuano (0.3 bWAR avg since return). After that it's a sad day at the glue factory.

pipecock doesn't quite do it justice really

I saw a lot of people pointing out that Eovaldi had some velo dips late in the season before he missed a month (?) due to injury, so it’s not impossible he fails to maintain his performance down the line.

Taillon had a horrific first half and then picked up a lot in the second half.

DeGrom idk he’s so talented but he’s so crocked, you could flip a coin and tell me he wins the Cy in his next season or he never pitches again & I’d believe you either way.