The very real possibility that vinyl will outlive CD - T or F?

this Albini guy

oh Tuomas I love you
(no, there isn't much reason why someone who doesn't like "rock" should know/care who Albini is, just a bit surprised after all these years on ILX...)

CDs were a decade old in 1992 but they hadn't been widely available for very long at all. My father has slight delusions of audiophilia and we got a CD player before anyone else I knew except his totally dedicated hi-fi buff friend; that must've been 91, I think. And there've been articles about CD rot going round for as long as ILM's been going. So even if 15 years is a fair estimate it'd still be possible that we hadn't yet hit the point where the general public would start noticing en masse that their oldest CDs don't work. I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing more and more of that over the next few years.

I have a very few 15-year-old CDs myself, but how often do I drag out the old ones now? Not very at all. They might all be unplayable, I'd have no idea.

But if the "average" age of a CD was 15 years, like that guys suggests, then the majority of CDs that were made in 1992 or earlier would be useless now, and I think someone would've noticed such a massive phenomenon.

I play my old CDs all the time (I have converted only a few of the on my computer), and there seems to be nothing wrong with them. My oldest CDs are from 1982 or 1983, and even those work fine.

I want to sing Merge's praises for letting me download GaGaGaGa Ga for free after purchasing the vinyl. Are they doing that for all their releases? And shouldn't everybody?

Yes, and I really wish I had had this option with the Robert Wyatt album because I am on vacation and really wanted to have it on the iPod, but didn't have time to rip it. Get on the ball, Domino!

also some discussion of CD deterioration on my "Data Migration" thread.

They should have this in the back of Diaries, along with the port lists:

1991 - tiring, play out or burn to wavs

I hope CDs don't go away simply so people can still have CD players and I can give people CD Rs. I know I could send them to people via e-mail or something, but I don't really have an online relationship with the majority of the people I know.

Both formats (vinyl and CD) are dead.

explain pls.

Published a couple weeks before that Wired piece:

http://billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3i26138003c343f1a1dd13ec2504e24872?imw=Y

Against all expectations, the vinyl album has refused to disappear into oblivion like the formats—cylinders, 78s, reel-to-reels and 8-track tapes—that fell before it. Numbers, in fact, show that it's actually enjoying renewed interest in the United States.

Vinyl is so fashionable right now that some retailers, like indie merchant Rob Roth of Fords, N.J.'s, Vintage Vinyl, are even predicting it will "outlast the CD." But others wonder if all the anecdotal testimony about vinyl's sales growth really amounts to a meaningful niche market, or whether the format is just the latest flavor in the industry's seemingly endless hype machine.

As one major-label distribution executive puts it, "I hear everyone talking about vinyl. But I just don't get it."

Sure, vinyl shows big growth percentages, but it's growing from an extremely small base. As of Oct. 28, vinyl albums have scanned 766,000 units—up 22.4% from the 612,000 units scanned in the corresponding period last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. What's more, vinyl is outselling the cassette album, which has scanned 247,000 units year to date, by a little more than 3-to-1. But the vinyl album still consists of only 0.02% of total album sales. In contrast, digital sales are now 10.7% of album sales and increasing.

On the other hand, some say so much activity has been bubbling around vinyl in 2007, especially in the second half of the year, that it would be more prudent to await the final tallies of this year's data before assessing how the format is performing. That's because label executives almost unanimously say they are now putting out more vinyl.

They're still making cassette albums?

so CDs still account for 90% of album sales? that's hardly dying, even if digital sales are steadily increasing.

Has anyone actually come across a deteriorated original CD?

"hello implant by eat static.
shame i will never be able to listen to you again due to that chronic case of rot."

apart from the odd PDO related crap, i love the cd format.
the ease of the format makes them the essential option for me.
if i had the time and space, and the right type of hi-fi, then i could continue with my vinyl collection, especially as its the de facto format for techno it seems in 2007, but family life and work makes this impractical.
having said that, i really hate digipacks, as those muthas just get messed up badly.
long live the new rounded corner super jewel box.

buying vinyl + illegal download for my ipod is my preferred format now.

matt h OTM i just need to get that ipod nowwww

This thread contains a disconcerting amount of wishful thinking.

They're still making cassette albums?

For sale in truckstops, gas stations, and Indian grocery stores (among possible other places), apparently. Though I'm not really sure how sales in those places wind up registering on SoundScan.

This thread contains a disconcerting amount of wishful thinking.

-- The Reverend, Tuesday, 20 November 2007 16:21 (11 minutes ago) Link

i'm not naive, i'm not saying that vinyl will become dominant in the market like CDs were in the 1990s, moving billions of units worldwide, etc...

i said "OUTLIVE"...and i still think that's right...i meant that as physical formats like CD decline, there's enough of of an small enthusiast/collector/audiophile market to make it survive long past the time CD is dead.

so no i'm not some silly pollyanna, i get that digital mp3 or some similar format will be the dominant format in the future, i was just observing that i think the odds are better that -- as a physical format -- vinyl will be being manufactured after CDs have stopped.

Everyone's a vinyl fetishist and creates a huge vinyl collection that they worship.

Then they try and move it and suddenly hard drives seem really sweet.

(Scott is the great exception. Scott is beyond good and evil.)

-- Ned Raggett, Tuesday, November 20, 2007 3:01 AM (13 hours ago) Bookmark Link

i dunno it's not that hard to carry some crates of records once every few years.

Sure, vinyl shows big growth percentages, but it's growing from an extremely small base. As of Oct. 28, vinyl albums have scanned 766,000 units—up 22.4% from the 612,000 units scanned in the corresponding period last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. What's more, vinyl is outselling the cassette album, which has scanned 247,000 units year to date, by a little more than 3-to-1. But the vinyl album still consists of only 0.02% of total album sales. In contrast, digital sales are now 10.7% of album sales and increasing.

also take any Soundscan numbers for vinyl and double, maybe triple them to get the real number, as all the indie stores I go too -- which sell the majority of vinyl -- don't report to Soundscan.

http://foetusized.org/cdrot.html

Yeah I recently threw away all my books, plus my couch. Too heavy!

never underestimate the appeal of a "physical object". i'll give you three examples from the closet:

-- scott seward, Monday, November 19, 2007 8:23 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

this is a goofy thread, so here's a goofy story. shit, i think i even told it to 69 when i met him, i probably sound like a windbag here.

moving apartments, we wanted to lighten the load and get some cash. sold a bunch of unwanted records and books. anth0ny from rad1o 4 was there rifling through piles of my records, pulling stuff for himself and his store. then this stylish woman in her twenties comes by and takes a look at a few titles and freaks out at me:

"OMG, you're selling these Bob Marley records for $5 each? You should be selling them for like.. $25 each at least!"

"Well, I'll tell you what, take all 6 for $20 or make me an offer, since I can see you're pretty excited to find them."

"Oh wow! But, but.. but I don't have a turntable.."

as she walked away, anth0ny just looked up and shook his head in disgust.

also take any Soundscan numbers for vinyl and double, maybe triple them to get the real number, as all the indie stores I go too -- which sell the majority of vinyl -- don't report to Soundscan.

This is a very important point.

I bet everyone here who lives in a medium/ big city will tell you that the record shops they go to have reversed the vinyl/ CD proportion in the past few years - sure, CDs are still what most people buy, but that market is spread over supermarkets, video rental stores and Amazon; record shops don't get the 6 records a year guy anymore. I bet, of the total music spend of people who spend more than ¢1000 or its euro/ sterling/ yen equivalent a year breaks down in a much different way in terms of media, especially if you factor in second hand sales

thats a thousand bucksa year on music -

Has anyone actually come across a deteriorated original CD?

Since I worked @ the used record store, mid-late '80's, I've probably had over 1000 CDs through my hands, I can still name the three ones that deteriorated:

Todd Rundgren "Something-Anything" (castle reissue)
REM "Green"
Popol Vuh "For you and Me"

My oldest ones - "Liege & Lief", a Dvorak compilation and a couple of Darling Buds singles - still play great.

I like the format loads, though I think its potential for awesome sound quality been ill-used by record companies, many early ones being pressed from substandard/unsuitable tapes - listening copies, vinyl-mastered and so on - in a hurry to cash in on the CD reissue boom ASAP, more recent ones being flatline-mastered. It's a shame. I wish the format would last for ever and ever, but it obviously isn't going to. If a lossless format like .flac were to become prevalent, I'd be more into uh yer non-physical music format. I still like CDs though.

For me this is kind of academic in a way, probably 90% of the msuic I listen to (@ work) is on Youtube FFS, and that sounds like ass is perfectly tailored to computer speakers.

i think my oldest cd is 'achtung baby' and it still plays fine, though i think the last time i looked at it the playing surface appeared to be slightly mottled.

I bet everyone here who lives in a medium/ big city will tell you that the record shops they go to have reversed the vinyl/ CD proportion in the past few years - sure, CDs are still what most people buy, but that market is spread over supermarkets, video rental stores and Amazon; record shops don't get the 6 records a year guy anymore. I bet, of the total music spend of people who spend more than ¢1000 or its euro/ sterling/ yen equivalent a year breaks down in a much different way in terms of media, especially if you factor in second hand sales

-- sonofstan, Tuesday, November 20, 2007 10:23 AM (Tuesday, November 20, 2007 10:23 AM) Bookmark Link

Not everyone lives in a big city, though. As far as I know, in the northern suburbs of Seattle, there are exactly zero stores you can walk into and buy a new record, whereas there are dozens you can walk into and buy a new cd, although very few of them are actually music stores.

(I should add that I would happily be proven wrong.)

seattle's a medium-sized city, there has to be places where you can buy vinyl

the record shops they go to have reversed the vinyl/ CD proportion in the past few years

this is not the case in SF, at least not in Amoeba, which seems to be stocking fewer "rock" records, but roughly the same amount of hip-hop, dance, and jazz vinyl.

there are a handful of other specialty shops though, that stock great vinyl (Aquarius, Open Mind, Grooves, etc.)

seattle's a medium-sized city, there has to be places where you can buy vinyl

-- Mark Clemente, Tuesday, November 20, 2007 11:09 AM (Tuesday, November 20, 2007 11:09 AM) Bookmark Link

In Seattle, yes, but I didn't say you can't buy records in Seattle. Reread my last post.

ah yes

i can't be bothered to read this thread but yeah guys people who still buy vinyl need a heavy kick to the crotch, right?

Naw, just skot.

Not everyone lives in a big city, though. As far as I know, in the northern suburbs of Seattle, there are exactly zero stores you can walk into and buy a new record, whereas there are dozens you can walk into and buy a new cd, although very few of them are actually music stores

xpost

Yeah, I think record stores - even in cities - are endangered species; big chains just as much as the little guys. It's only the young and/or obsessive that go to shops anymore.

REM "Green"

Interesting... I've had trouble with mine, too. I've have older cd's that seem fine though.

I'd say, actually, it's only the old and/or obsessive. My 17-y.o. sister never buys cds at all. She downloads all her music illegally.

xp

yeah, kids in general are not buying music in any format.

Yeah, the same people who don't download are probably more comfortable going to a record store than ordering online. This is only a matter of time, though.

i like the idea of REM cds rotting :D

DG otm.

My 17-y.o. sister never buys cds at all.

I should amend this to cds, or records, or mp3s, or, or, or...

more anecdotal evidence:

I am on vacation in my home town in Virginia, there are three places here that carry new/used vinyl. I haven't been here in two years. The first place I checked out had moved all of their new vinyl to a more prominent location near the front of the store, but the amount was about the same. The next place had tons more used vinyl than before and the guy said sales had increased to the point that he now sells turntables. And I guarantee you he doesn't report to Soundscan either.

Is it a bad sign that the latest Vinyl Anachronist column reads like a suicide note?

man i wish i thought sacd was going to make it, i hear great things

xpost: Well, there's this:

I'm not going to worry about future generations embracing the LP and the turntable. (They seem to be doing that on their own, remarkably enough.)

WISHFUL THINKING.

My 17-y.o. sister never buys cds at all.

I should amend this to cds, or records, or mp3s, or, or, or..

check - 18 yo daughter with a full MP3 player, spends maybe €50 on music if that

xpost

€50 a year...

i don't even care that much about it. if sacd and/or digital playback gets great, then fine...but for me, i get the most bang for my buck -- sound quality-wise -- from vinyl and a turntable. i don't think that's romantic or irrational at all.

for about $1000 i got a great, small speaker, amp, and turntable setup that sounds amazing and to my ears better than cd or mp3. i realize that if i dropped like 10Gs or something i could probably get server or whatever and do flac but it sounds like too much work to me.

Most people aren't going to spend a thousand dollars on a setup.