2008 Primaries Thread

haha

Alfred, that Rich NYT story is not just worrying . . . it's frightening.

rich turns this amazing trick of both saying the obvious and being completely wrong about everything

I was referring to the story not the Rich column, about which Tracer is otm.

link to rich column??

it can stand repeating, everytime i hear talk about re-seating the michigan/florida delegates i want to puke

An innocent question: is there any movement in the Democratic Party to abolish this oligarchic superdelegate system (which was itself counter-revolutionary)?

at this point I'm preparing for Obama to win the delegate, state, and popular vote, while Clinton ends up with the nod thru backroom SuperD dealings. I doubt ppl would put up much of a protest if that happened.

if the delegate winner doesn't become the nom i guarantee there will be talks (if not movement) to abolish the system.

http://bearingdrift.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/BO_Ludicris.jpg

ROLL OUT

Obama's tie is great!

Ben Wanted shirt = subliminal donation appeal

gershy, next time just say IT WAS MADE PRETTY CLEAR THAT THIS WAS A JOKE AND YOU ALMOST STABBED YOURSELF IN THE FACE LIKE A HULKAMANIAC TRYING TO TELL ME I'M A DOUCHE FOR *ACTUALLY* THINKING THAT.

Haven't posted to ILX in a while but having been lurking on this thread in particular.

I think it's naive to dismiss race as a factor in Obama's white vote (or lack thereof) in some places but I don't think it's just a Southern issue (for the record: I'm a white Southerner and strong Obama supporter).

It's interesting that Obama seems to be doing best either in states with a large black vote in the democratic primary (where he wins so overwhelmingly that he only needs 25% or so of the white vote to win overall) OR in relatively racially homogenous states with a very small black population (Idaho? Nebraska? even Minnesota).

What this says to me is that it's easier for white voters, in mass, to support a black candidate in states with very small black populations, not because white voters in these places are less "racist" (a loaded word best avoided in most circumstances) but because their political thinking is less rooted in reacting to race or race-based identity politics.

In other words, white voters in more diverse areas are more likely to feel threatened by a black politician (or, more to the point, that politician's perceived constituency) or uncomfortably implicated in the effects of racial discrimination that politician makes people confront than white voters in heavily white areas.

The idea that only "racist" or Republican white voters are affected by race (if even unconsciously) is wishful/simplistic. As is the notion that this is only a Southern dynamic.

My two cents

^ possibly the most thoughtful thing i've read on the race factor in the primaries.

it's pretty obvious, too. but the question is how much it will actually matter in the places that matter.

Obama won the swing regions of Louisiana, btw

tomboto otm!

hstencil much much better at the interweb beef baiting tho

molly seemed like a nice gal : \

i mean, obama is not nearly as popular among white ethnic urban dem primary voters, but does that mean he's gonna lose massachusetts (lol, racists)

can it be presumed that he would get a larger black turnout in swing states with significant black populations? especially after this primary?

Gershy, Molly and I live together, so we have the same IP address.

I'm amazed that you try to take such pleasure in shutting down discussion by whining until the person who called you on your bullshit gets banned. I admire your commitment to open discussion.

I should say that I'm much more struck by Obama's ability to win massively in such lily-white areas than by his struggles (however minor, really) to gain white support in more diverse areas.

Sure -- we probably shouldn't assume that all white Clinton voters will go Obama in the general -- there's probably a sliver that will vote McCain in large part because of a reluctance (acknowledged or not) to vote for a black candidate.

But, conversely, could Obama actually put some hardcore Red states in play? Kansas?

Prolly not 'hardcore' red, but I think there's several new states that could be play if Obama's the candidate this year, especially coming off his primary numbers.

What this says to me is that it's easier for white voters, in mass, to support a black candidate in states with very small black populations, not because white voters in these places are less "racist" (a loaded word best avoided in most circumstances) but because their political thinking is less rooted in reacting to race or race-based identity politics.

I think this is a really elegant way to put it.

State Democratic parties in many southern states have a functional divide between urban black political machines (Memphis, Atlanta, New Orleans) and the white-dominated apparatus in the rest of the state. The white Dems tend to be more rural and conservative, and have to content with rhetoric from the Republicans about tax dollars going to welfare queens in the ghettos, and try to offer pork-barrel and more conservative rhetoric. This is played out again and again in primary battles, executive races, and legislative manouvering. The Ford family in Tennessee is an interesting case-- Harold moved much further to the right of any elected Democratic official I can think of, but the endless ads linking him to family scandals did quite a bit of damage (more than the disgusting "call me, Harold" ad, I suspect).

I would suggest that the Dem primary race in several southern states has followed this pre-existing racial alignment.

It certainly doesn't mean that Hillary supporters in the south are in the fucking klan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joke

xp to Hubie:
in 2004 Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia all went to Bush by pretty narrow margins.

If you add an increase in black + independent turnout (ignoring the myriad of other factors), Obama could win any of these states against McCain. So yeah, this could redraw the map.

Get this through your head: even as a joke, it's totally self-defeating to dismiss Southern Democrats who have had to put up with decades of having our asses handed to us by racists as being, in fact, racist.

That kind of stupidity has created an us vs them mentality that has handed hundreds of electoral votes to the Republicans over the last four decades.

So yeah, if some smug shit is going to slur what I've been fighting for-- a liberal/left voice in a place that needs it-- I'm going to call him on his bullshit.

http://www.geocities.com/mmesuzanne/sockpuppet.jpg

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/3/d/1/hillary_drivingmiisshillary.jpg

Regarding the Frank Rich NYT article: Rich's anti-HRC bent does color his argument, but I can imagine a nightmare convension like he envisions, even with less of a ruthless politician than Rich makes HRC out to be.

love the wal-mart bag
xp

Reverend, just to make things real literal, are you accusing me, who has been on ILX since 01, of having a sock puppet identity in the form of my fiancee, with whom I live and share an internet connection?

False accusation. We await your apology.

I live in Memphis FWIW. You mean Harold Jr., but your point is well taken.

But, again, I don't think this is a Southern phenomenon or even a black-white issue. Anywhere that has racial/ethnic diversity also has, unavoidably, a political climate rooted in racial competition, which impacts the political instincts of people who live there even if they resist it.

he's also winning Grammys.

He won best spoken word LMAO.

-- The Brainwasher, Sunday, February 10, 2008 12:44 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Link

BEATING OUT BILL CLINTON TOO LMAO

link to rich column??

-- deej, Sunday, February 10, 2008 2:16 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/opinion/10rich.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin

True enough. See Chicago vs downstate, or the example of Buffalo where Molly's from, where they're convinced that they have a net tax loss to support NYC, despite facts being to the contrary.

Yeah I meant Junior. We live in Nashville.

dick, it seems like you got out of bed on the wrong side this morning. you might just want to let it go.

yeah this thread is a clusterfuck enough w/o you guys going a it

so anyway everyone was saying hillary was supposed to win maine cause of the demographics and she got served - a sigh on things to come?

uh sign

im sure ive said this before but i dont think the superdelegates have any interest in swinging this thing - particularly if the delegate leader is polling better than the second place finisher in the general election - a lot of these people have to run on the same ticket

well, the point I'm making is that the conventional wisdom about demographics seems off. Obama wins big in pretty much every largely white state. But, yeah, I'm assuming this momentum will keep building and spill over into states where the demographics don't seem to be as much in his favor -- Ohio, Pennsylvania.

x post I pointed out that gershy's comment was unacceptable. Since then, it's been me (with one nice assist from my fiancee) defending off gershy and a pathetic claque, who have gone so far as to try to have me banned from ILX and have tried to claim that I'm using Molly as a sockpuppet. I think I was entitled to defend myself against slander, and those who pulled this bullshit should feel shame and apologize.

Since I know I won't get an apology, I'll leave it at that.

plz stop we get it ok

jesus christ

deej:

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=frank+rich+column

yeah i went there

Dick, I don't think anyone tried to get you banned (at least not recently, I don't see any "ban Dickerson Pike" thread on ModReq)

What this says to me is that it's easier for white voters, in mass, to support a black candidate in states with very small black populations

what numbers bear this idea out?

(see primary results)