2008 Primaries Thread

there will be nightmares now

repubs know how to use the oval office, too.

Howard Dean has said he's gonna bring this thing to a close if we don't have a decision after Pennsylvania on 4/22. fwiw, of course, but I doubt it goes on beyond that because the states that follow should have less impact than the bigger ones before them, and shouldn't tell us anything we don't already know. sure, if things are still tied up, there could be a desire for a delegate fight, but I think there would be significant pressure from not just the dnc but the base too to band together for the good of the party, quite possibly by forming a ticket. if Hillary is leading, I think Obama magnanimously falls in line with the knowledge that the remaining schedule doesn't really favor him, and accepts the Veep slot or goes back to wait his turn. if Obama's leading, and Hillary doesn't do the same, I think Dean plus the institutional forces already aligned with Obama - Kennedy, Daschle, etc. - plus perhaps a Gore endorsement, will be able to quash her going forward.

the thing is, I sorta suspect that Hillary has the upper hand given natural advantages in the big March and April states. the question is whether the momentum and coverage of the next four weeks of Obama winning and Hillary losing will be enough to get him to or beyond parity when we get to OH and maybe PA.

I suppose saying that Hillary's got the Catholic vote is more tactful than the NYT's saying that white ethnics and hispanics aren't so comfortable with the hugely successful young black guy filled with apparent ease. And that the later generations like Obama because he's young, not because they feel more enfranchised and identify less with the immigrant experience. Just like the relatively comfortable set of independents and lean-Republicans to whom Obama appeals and Hillary does not. It's an important point, tho - the Clintons have something here that Obama doesn't, which is a problem for him in the primaries. The question is whether it's actually a problem in the general. Fortunately, two of Obama's better Veep candidates - Sebelius and Biden - are Catholic, and old enough (perhaps just in Sebelius' case) to reassure earlier generations. I won't bring up Teddy again, but would note that Chris Dodd fits the bill too, tho he's also a somewhat unlikely choice. Other younger and (much?) more unlikely Catholics include Tim Kaine, Brian Schweitzer, and Ken Salazar. Presumably left-field pick Tony Zinni, who's about Biden's age, would fit the bill as well.

Napolitano's Catholic, too, but can we all pls not pretend that we're gonna put anyone who's single on a ticket?

so let's talk huck. He's basically staying in this race because A)he's getting delegates for cheap, and B)good christian souljas like Dobson are pressuring him to keep it up. He know's mccain will get crowned, and I think he'd rather be on the receiving end of a mccain teabag than oppose him. He's gotta tread pretty lightly here, right?

I will vote for Huck if he will agree to change his name to Dr. Superman.

huckleberry as my grandmother calls him is still there in no small part because he can be - he has very little campaign infrastructure to pay for, so it's not like he's gonna run out of money. and he's there out of self-interest, because he wants a larger role of some sort in the party or in the religious right. and it's not like mccain really has a problem with his being there - he probably helps hide and delay some of the dissatisfaction with him, and mccain probably prefers the dude by miles to some of the other wingnuts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/09/us/politics/09bush.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1202565767-xSQtF52oX6pHnwZ071er7w

this thing suggests that while McCain isn't gonna go out of his way to piss off the base, he's not gonna worry too much about picking a Southern evangelical either, and is more likely to pick a reinforcing rather than balancing candidate. of course 'security' could mean household/financial as well as national security - a Pawlenty or Sanford would fit the bill - but I think this increases the likelihood we're gonna see a more experienced Tom Ridge-type figure. and is it impossible that he picks Giuliani? also, while he doesn't quite fit the theme, I'd forgotten about Brownback. a McCain-Keating ticket would be too funny.

I will vote for Huck

I will vote for Huck shortly after I receive a sign from God that I am guaranteed a place in heaven, and shortly before I kill myself to get there.

I can't resist

McCain will never get the nomination. Bet everything you can on that.

-- don weiner (don weiner), Friday, June 3, 2005 3:08 PM (Friday, June 3, 2005 3:08 PM) Bookmark Link

there's still time!

McCain has a strategic interest in keeping Obama's primary vote down in all future open-primary states. Maintaining a sham "contest" on the Republican side helps him deny Obama some independents in the next couple months.

gabbneb never talks about policy. He's ILE's Democratic Fred Barnes, only more cherful.
All the John McCain speculation upthread seems so laughable now, especially when, as Andrew O'Heir rightly pointed out (dicussing his appearance on FOX News last night), "he's got all all the lifelike vividness of Lenin's corpse, smiling in this ghastly, dead way."

-- Alfred, Lord Sotosyn (Alfred Soto), Wednesday, November 8, 2006 12:23 PM (Wednesday, November 8, 2006 12:23 PM) Bookmark Link

McCain isn't gonna go out of his way to piss off the base, he's not gonna worry too much about picking a Southern evangelical either, and is more likely to pick a reinforcing rather than balancing candidate.

otm, that seems like his style. But so what.

More interesting to wonder what kind of Supreme Court justices McCain would appoint. Whoever gets the presidency pretty much has a 100% guarantee of appointing two new justices of his or her choice, replacing two very old libruls who are mainly alive only because dying while George W. is in office would be too much guilt to carry into the afterlife.

For what it's worth, Bob Shrum weighs the Republican field and says it's already McCain. I agree with him right up until the end when he talks about how to win (shocker). I note that he fails to reckon with Huckabee, who is neither implausible nor extreme-seeming, but he's right that in the his-turn party, Warners don't top the ticket.
-- gabbneb (gabbneb), Saturday, March 11, 2006 12:24 PM (Saturday, March 11, 2006 12:24 PM) Bookmark Link

so much for Powell as McCain's VP:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/08/colin-powell-may-support-democrat-or-independent-in-%e2%80%9808/

oh, I wouldn't conclude that

oh man we would get a real nice debate on the merits of war in iraq w/a mccain/powell ticket

Powell's gonna be on Late Edition on CNN tomorrow

i agree with just about everything gabbneb said in his longer post upthread speculating what will happen with the dem race.

and of course, this is key to determining who it'll likely be:

the thing is, I sorta suspect that Hillary has the upper hand given natural advantages in the big March and April states. the question is whether the momentum and coverage of the next four weeks of Obama winning and Hillary losing will be enough to get him to or beyond parity when we get to OH and maybe PA.

honestly tho, if obama 7 or 8 or 9 of these february contests, wouldn't that catapult him towards winning in march as well?

so we've obviously seen the new clinton campaign strategy for aftr super tuesday, which is an attempt to recast her as the upstart candidate. all of campaigns press-directed activities have been attempts to shore up this storyline -- the loan, the fundraising plea, the call for more debates, the 'press-hates-hillary' shuster affair. but keep in mind -- it takes money and time to come up with new talking points and strategies and requires organization to spread the new narrative -- you can bet a large part of these new-found funds are being used to focus-group new campaign slogans and shit like that... and clinton does need to raise a lot more funds and will be holding more traditional fundraising events, rather than just rallies.

so obama has an advantage here -- i really hope that the obama campaign can take the opportunity to talk more policy and actually set forth proposals for programs and legislation -- the plan for 80% reduction in emissions he set out in seattle is a good example, and delivered to the correct geographic crowd. if he can continue the strong grassroots support and season his events with a few more policy specifics, it will counter the narrative that the obama campaign is self-referential / a cult of personality / all generalities & no specifics.

so obama has an advantage here -- i really hope that the obama campaign can take the opportunity to talk more policy

Don’t worry, he won’t. Senator Obama will get hammered by both Senator Clinton and McCain if he even comes close to making policy the focus of his campaign, the campaign is well aware of this fact.

it will counter the narrative that the obama campaign is self-referential / a cult of personality / all generalities & no specifics.

You can’t change what he, or his campaign is. Frankly, if you’d like to see him win you should be praying he doesn’t attempt to change the narrative.

dude, you're really obnoxious.

Since on many levels Obama and Clinton "policies" are indistinguishable, and Obama's the more fiery speaker, HRC better buy some rosary beads.

Also, the only people that care about policy are the 10% of the population that's strongly involved in politics, so the more turnout increases, the less policy matters. 30% turnout = at least 2/3 of voters are making their decision based on personality or associative cues.

Worth reading -- reports on caucusing in Nebraska. TONS of people showing up for Democratic voting, overwhelming expectations. Some bits:

1:52 p.m.

The decision to have only one caucus site in all of Sarpy County appears to have been a bad one.

Reports are coming in that the caucus site in Papillion is overhwhelmed.

Thousands have turned up, when organized expected only several hundred.

They are still registering.

Traffic is backed up on Highway 370.

"All of Sarpy County is at this school and they've run out of registration forms," said Cindy Perich, of Papillion.

She had taken today off to caucus on behalf of Barack Obama. But, she left. It was too chaotic.

"It's totally unorganized. I'm totally disappointed with the (Nebraska) Democratic Party," said Perich.

* * *

11:42 a.m.

It doesn't look good for Clinton at Monroe Middle School.

The line to the Clinton box is empty. The line to vote for Obama is about a half block long.

Mr. Goodman, has the possibility that Obama is smarter than Hillary ever occurred to you?

i hope obama's momentum can help him out in texas and ohio

Mr. Goodman, has the possibility that Obama is smarter than Hillary ever occurred to you?

Of course it has. Look, I vote on three issues. The future of two of these determine my future employment as I plan to work within their area of policy and as a part of the next administration. It is in my best interest to support the candidate who I think will not only best serve the country, but serve myself (and my beliefs) as well.

While I have the utmost respect for the three leading candidates, I believe Senator Clinton is the candidate who best fits my ideology and interests.

you are out of a job if clinton looses?

The future of two of these determine my future employment as I plan to work within their area of policy and as a part of the next administration

At least you're selfless.

you are out of a job if clinton looses?

http://www.medgadget.com/archives/img/12423511gp1.jpg

From: Lil' Boosie

Date: Feb 9, 2008 9:48 AM
Subject: VOTE FOR A CHANGE
Body: Normally I dont even get involved in all the politics... but make sure you go vote for BARACK TODAY...

You want to see change in the world... make sure you go vote.

lxy reports that washington's caucus today is "already really annoying"

Huckabee takes Kansas

LIVE REPORT FROM MACKRO MACKRO VIA PHONE:

--

"From Queen Anne Hill, 'pro-Hillary'/Gary Locke district:

Obama -- 90%
Clinton -- 10%
GOP -- a vast and empty silence

Now off to the Kimya Dawson instore at Easy Street.

Rock. (Pretty surprising even for me!)"

i wish more ron paul fans wouldn't vote

-- J.D., Sunday, 30 December 2007 10:28 (9 hours ago) Link

Sorry. We're coming out in droves on super tuesday. Get ready.

-- If Assholes Could Fly This Place Would Be An Airport, Sunday, December 30, 2007 2:51 PM (Sunday, December 30, 2007 2:51 PM) Bookmark Link

x-post -- He adds his estimates aren't official, but just judging by the raising of hands. Also adds it was a total madhouse, people asked to leave if preferences had already been recorded -- scene outside "like a natural disaster had happened and everyone was waiting in line for supplies"

at least he broke 5% in NY, xp

is QA supposed to be pro-Hillary because richies live there?

My wife drove by the Republican caucus site in our crappy Kansas town this morning as the caucus was ending, and said every person she saw was age 65 or older (I guess the three Ron Paul voters were still inside moping).

I'm surprised Huckabee won so big here---there's a lot of military here, and I thought they'd be very pro-McCain.

x-post -- Ask the man when he gets back to this thread.

Not one of Huckabee's better photos:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/homepage/hp2-9-08a.jpg

Now off to the Kimya Dawson instore at Easy Street.

lol

Was he chewing on a baby with those incisors?

(xpost)

i am hoping huckabee can make a run and conservative infighting will continue.

i saw ann coulter on cspan at the cpac thing and she said she would have voted for giuliani because he would pick judges that would be against miranda rights

i'm still in shock that ann coulter's a deadhead.

I'm not!