2008 Primaries Thread

y sure max - im looking for guess papers btw

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/09/nyregion/09about.html?ref=politics

NYT article says "Catholic Vote is Harbinger of Success For Clinton".

Does it matter whom Catholics like Mr. Quinn voted for in the Democratic primaries? By November, it may not. Still, Catholics, who make up about a quarter of the registered voters in the country, have backed the winner of the national popular vote for at least the last nine presidential elections, going back to 1972.

lol this article knowing its ridiculous but soldiering on anyway w/nary a mention of catholics predictive powers in dem primaries.

The Democrats have it exactly wrong. Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.

The biggest problem for the Republicans will be that no matter what they say that is not issue oriented--"He's too young, he's never run anything, he's not fully baked"--the mainstream media will tag them as dealing in racial overtones, or undertones. You can bet on this. Go to the bank on it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120241915915951669.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

Ornicus points out that while what Schuster said was obviously repellent, Matthews says worse shit every night and gets away with it.

if hillary gets the nomination ill be v v v afraid

That she might lose and McCain would win? Shit, man. I seriously might have to sit that election out and let the cards fall. Hillary is not my candidate at all, except on those few big social issues that we're all supposed to foul our shorts about and base our votes on, and I am weary of that. Other matters are at hand, and neither candidate is going to be spending a lot of time thinking about the contents of uteruses once they have to seriously, honestly start rebuilding the infrastructure of a thoroughly fucked-up country. (Am I talking about Iraq? Well, let's see what the weather does this year.)

I am unconvinced that McCain has lost leave of his senses and turned 180 degrees on everything he has ever said he believed in his whole career. Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter will back me up here! It's why they hate him. It would be great fun to watch them both vote for Hillary, like they say they will. I do not think a McCain presidency would be anything like a disaster. Even his position on the war, turncoat as it seems, isn't, like, nuts.

"Obama and Clinton 'will withdraw our forces from Iraq based on an arbitrary timetable' without regard to consequences, he said. He will heed the advice of the commanders there."

WELL FUCK ME SIDEWAYS, FINALLY SOMEBODY WILL!

The commanders will be so shit-happy they'll put up a giant red white and blue banner on an aircraft carrier that says UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT.

I'm sorry, that post got away from me. What I meant to type was GO OBAMA.

Mellencamp to McCain: Uh, you prob don't wanna use my songs, bro

"Logic says that the facts might prove to be an embarrassment" — namely that Mellencamp had in fact been backing John Edwards.

That's the work of either a sloppy editor or one with a sense of humor.

Hoos that article was linked and mentioned here yesterday. then again lol 8000 posts this thread could prolly use a nighttime news team to repeat today's top stories.

haha

damn i need to cut back on the "haha"s & the "lol"s

this thread was founded on lols. you owe it your allegiance.

8120+ messages so far.

Shit, seeing as how we're going to have daily new threads once the election hits, lets see if we can break that record.

so let's talk huck. He's basically staying in this race because A)he's getting delegates for cheap, and B)good christian souljas like Dobson are pressuring him to keep it up. He know's mccain will get crowned, and I think he'd rather be on the receiving end of a mccain teabag than oppose him. He's gotta tread pretty lightly here, right?

yeah. that's actually a slightly scarier ticket than any i can think of.

16 years of these assholes is a pretty big percentage of the what like 6000 years planet earth has been around.

on the receiving end of a mccain teabag

ew ew why

there will be nightmares now

repubs know how to use the oval office, too.

Howard Dean has said he's gonna bring this thing to a close if we don't have a decision after Pennsylvania on 4/22. fwiw, of course, but I doubt it goes on beyond that because the states that follow should have less impact than the bigger ones before them, and shouldn't tell us anything we don't already know. sure, if things are still tied up, there could be a desire for a delegate fight, but I think there would be significant pressure from not just the dnc but the base too to band together for the good of the party, quite possibly by forming a ticket. if Hillary is leading, I think Obama magnanimously falls in line with the knowledge that the remaining schedule doesn't really favor him, and accepts the Veep slot or goes back to wait his turn. if Obama's leading, and Hillary doesn't do the same, I think Dean plus the institutional forces already aligned with Obama - Kennedy, Daschle, etc. - plus perhaps a Gore endorsement, will be able to quash her going forward.

the thing is, I sorta suspect that Hillary has the upper hand given natural advantages in the big March and April states. the question is whether the momentum and coverage of the next four weeks of Obama winning and Hillary losing will be enough to get him to or beyond parity when we get to OH and maybe PA.

I suppose saying that Hillary's got the Catholic vote is more tactful than the NYT's saying that white ethnics and hispanics aren't so comfortable with the hugely successful young black guy filled with apparent ease. And that the later generations like Obama because he's young, not because they feel more enfranchised and identify less with the immigrant experience. Just like the relatively comfortable set of independents and lean-Republicans to whom Obama appeals and Hillary does not. It's an important point, tho - the Clintons have something here that Obama doesn't, which is a problem for him in the primaries. The question is whether it's actually a problem in the general. Fortunately, two of Obama's better Veep candidates - Sebelius and Biden - are Catholic, and old enough (perhaps just in Sebelius' case) to reassure earlier generations. I won't bring up Teddy again, but would note that Chris Dodd fits the bill too, tho he's also a somewhat unlikely choice. Other younger and (much?) more unlikely Catholics include Tim Kaine, Brian Schweitzer, and Ken Salazar. Presumably left-field pick Tony Zinni, who's about Biden's age, would fit the bill as well.

Napolitano's Catholic, too, but can we all pls not pretend that we're gonna put anyone who's single on a ticket?

so let's talk huck. He's basically staying in this race because A)he's getting delegates for cheap, and B)good christian souljas like Dobson are pressuring him to keep it up. He know's mccain will get crowned, and I think he'd rather be on the receiving end of a mccain teabag than oppose him. He's gotta tread pretty lightly here, right?

I will vote for Huck if he will agree to change his name to Dr. Superman.

huckleberry as my grandmother calls him is still there in no small part because he can be - he has very little campaign infrastructure to pay for, so it's not like he's gonna run out of money. and he's there out of self-interest, because he wants a larger role of some sort in the party or in the religious right. and it's not like mccain really has a problem with his being there - he probably helps hide and delay some of the dissatisfaction with him, and mccain probably prefers the dude by miles to some of the other wingnuts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/09/us/politics/09bush.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1202565767-xSQtF52oX6pHnwZ071er7w

this thing suggests that while McCain isn't gonna go out of his way to piss off the base, he's not gonna worry too much about picking a Southern evangelical either, and is more likely to pick a reinforcing rather than balancing candidate. of course 'security' could mean household/financial as well as national security - a Pawlenty or Sanford would fit the bill - but I think this increases the likelihood we're gonna see a more experienced Tom Ridge-type figure. and is it impossible that he picks Giuliani? also, while he doesn't quite fit the theme, I'd forgotten about Brownback. a McCain-Keating ticket would be too funny.

I will vote for Huck

I will vote for Huck shortly after I receive a sign from God that I am guaranteed a place in heaven, and shortly before I kill myself to get there.

I can't resist

McCain will never get the nomination. Bet everything you can on that.

-- don weiner (don weiner), Friday, June 3, 2005 3:08 PM (Friday, June 3, 2005 3:08 PM) Bookmark Link

there's still time!

McCain has a strategic interest in keeping Obama's primary vote down in all future open-primary states. Maintaining a sham "contest" on the Republican side helps him deny Obama some independents in the next couple months.

gabbneb never talks about policy. He's ILE's Democratic Fred Barnes, only more cherful.
All the John McCain speculation upthread seems so laughable now, especially when, as Andrew O'Heir rightly pointed out (dicussing his appearance on FOX News last night), "he's got all all the lifelike vividness of Lenin's corpse, smiling in this ghastly, dead way."

-- Alfred, Lord Sotosyn (Alfred Soto), Wednesday, November 8, 2006 12:23 PM (Wednesday, November 8, 2006 12:23 PM) Bookmark Link

McCain isn't gonna go out of his way to piss off the base, he's not gonna worry too much about picking a Southern evangelical either, and is more likely to pick a reinforcing rather than balancing candidate.

otm, that seems like his style. But so what.

More interesting to wonder what kind of Supreme Court justices McCain would appoint. Whoever gets the presidency pretty much has a 100% guarantee of appointing two new justices of his or her choice, replacing two very old libruls who are mainly alive only because dying while George W. is in office would be too much guilt to carry into the afterlife.

For what it's worth, Bob Shrum weighs the Republican field and says it's already McCain. I agree with him right up until the end when he talks about how to win (shocker). I note that he fails to reckon with Huckabee, who is neither implausible nor extreme-seeming, but he's right that in the his-turn party, Warners don't top the ticket.
-- gabbneb (gabbneb), Saturday, March 11, 2006 12:24 PM (Saturday, March 11, 2006 12:24 PM) Bookmark Link

so much for Powell as McCain's VP:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/08/colin-powell-may-support-democrat-or-independent-in-%e2%80%9808/

oh, I wouldn't conclude that

oh man we would get a real nice debate on the merits of war in iraq w/a mccain/powell ticket

Powell's gonna be on Late Edition on CNN tomorrow

i agree with just about everything gabbneb said in his longer post upthread speculating what will happen with the dem race.

and of course, this is key to determining who it'll likely be:

the thing is, I sorta suspect that Hillary has the upper hand given natural advantages in the big March and April states. the question is whether the momentum and coverage of the next four weeks of Obama winning and Hillary losing will be enough to get him to or beyond parity when we get to OH and maybe PA.

honestly tho, if obama 7 or 8 or 9 of these february contests, wouldn't that catapult him towards winning in march as well?

so we've obviously seen the new clinton campaign strategy for aftr super tuesday, which is an attempt to recast her as the upstart candidate. all of campaigns press-directed activities have been attempts to shore up this storyline -- the loan, the fundraising plea, the call for more debates, the 'press-hates-hillary' shuster affair. but keep in mind -- it takes money and time to come up with new talking points and strategies and requires organization to spread the new narrative -- you can bet a large part of these new-found funds are being used to focus-group new campaign slogans and shit like that... and clinton does need to raise a lot more funds and will be holding more traditional fundraising events, rather than just rallies.

so obama has an advantage here -- i really hope that the obama campaign can take the opportunity to talk more policy and actually set forth proposals for programs and legislation -- the plan for 80% reduction in emissions he set out in seattle is a good example, and delivered to the correct geographic crowd. if he can continue the strong grassroots support and season his events with a few more policy specifics, it will counter the narrative that the obama campaign is self-referential / a cult of personality / all generalities & no specifics.

so obama has an advantage here -- i really hope that the obama campaign can take the opportunity to talk more policy

Don’t worry, he won’t. Senator Obama will get hammered by both Senator Clinton and McCain if he even comes close to making policy the focus of his campaign, the campaign is well aware of this fact.

it will counter the narrative that the obama campaign is self-referential / a cult of personality / all generalities & no specifics.

You can’t change what he, or his campaign is. Frankly, if you’d like to see him win you should be praying he doesn’t attempt to change the narrative.

dude, you're really obnoxious.

Since on many levels Obama and Clinton "policies" are indistinguishable, and Obama's the more fiery speaker, HRC better buy some rosary beads.

Also, the only people that care about policy are the 10% of the population that's strongly involved in politics, so the more turnout increases, the less policy matters. 30% turnout = at least 2/3 of voters are making their decision based on personality or associative cues.

Worth reading -- reports on caucusing in Nebraska. TONS of people showing up for Democratic voting, overwhelming expectations. Some bits:

1:52 p.m.

The decision to have only one caucus site in all of Sarpy County appears to have been a bad one.

Reports are coming in that the caucus site in Papillion is overhwhelmed.

Thousands have turned up, when organized expected only several hundred.

They are still registering.

Traffic is backed up on Highway 370.

"All of Sarpy County is at this school and they've run out of registration forms," said Cindy Perich, of Papillion.

She had taken today off to caucus on behalf of Barack Obama. But, she left. It was too chaotic.

"It's totally unorganized. I'm totally disappointed with the (Nebraska) Democratic Party," said Perich.

* * *

11:42 a.m.

It doesn't look good for Clinton at Monroe Middle School.

The line to the Clinton box is empty. The line to vote for Obama is about a half block long.

Mr. Goodman, has the possibility that Obama is smarter than Hillary ever occurred to you?

i hope obama's momentum can help him out in texas and ohio

Mr. Goodman, has the possibility that Obama is smarter than Hillary ever occurred to you?

Of course it has. Look, I vote on three issues. The future of two of these determine my future employment as I plan to work within their area of policy and as a part of the next administration. It is in my best interest to support the candidate who I think will not only best serve the country, but serve myself (and my beliefs) as well.

While I have the utmost respect for the three leading candidates, I believe Senator Clinton is the candidate who best fits my ideology and interests.

you are out of a job if clinton looses?