2008 Primaries Thread

obama-haters are seriously reaching.

He should be very worried that this nomination is likely to be decided in the big working-class primary states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

this is probably true, though, and it worries me.

press calling obama cult-leader have maybe forgotten about lyndon larouche?

meanwhile:

obama up by 20 points in virginia

i dunno about my aforementioned crackpot theory, but after the self-loan and the "staff going without pay! oops not really lol", the clinton campaign seems to be gaming the media for as much free fundraising publicity as it can get this week

they're just making up stories out of non-issues in order to combat the obama momentum

"staff going without pay! oops not really lol"

lolz

math question: if (1)obama wins most of february's contests decisively, and (2)hillary wins ohio/texas/pennsylvania, but not decisively enough to get a lot of delegates, can he take the lead in delegates (not including super-d's, yet)?

yeah we spoke about that yesterday.

i worry -- the obama campaign claims confidence against the clinton attack machine, but i think hillary's a different type of candidate altogether when she's trailing in polls. has she ever been on the losing side of an election?

well considering she's only run for one office, i would say no.

The "we are the change" Obama line is creepily reminiscent of Nashville's Hal Philip Walker. (and nowhere as funny as Rodham's "dreams and practicality")

xxxpost - sorry i must have missed it. when i look at the numbers i'm not sure, since ohio/texas/penn are so delegate rich

what can they use against obama, though? the only thing i can think of that may really hurt him is that church he belongs to which allegedy has ties to Farrakhan...

xxxpost she was neck and neck with rudy, but when he dropped out she pretty much had it in the bag against lazio

xpost

I think according to the Obama campaign's math, the answer is yes. He should still hold a slight lead in pledged delegates even if he loses in all three of those states, as long as they're not very distant losses.

morbs, "we are the ones we've been waiting for" is apparently a hopi proverb? something like that?

well, I bet it sounds better in the original.

obama camp memo, lays it all out pretty well why obama is the best match against mccain (re: independent voters):

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/obama_campaign_memo_hes_the_gu.php#more

i should send all this stuff to my mom.

I will seriously be much happier and less distracted once this shit is settled and I can regain relative sanity until at least October.

seriously. i haven't gotten anything done at work in the past two weeks. more of my time is taken up by reading political sites, blogs, news, etc. than by anything else. i also think i've made like 2 posts to the rest of ILX in the past month.

timesaver for Mark and elmo:

"Laugh about it, shout about it when you've got to choose
Every way you look at it you lose."

Crowd for Obama getting turned away today:

http://i29.tinypic.com/2le3zgk.jpg

NBC NEWS STATEMENT REGARDING CHELSEA CLINTON COMMENT:

On Thursday's "Tucker" on MSNBC, David Shuster, who was serving as guest-host of the program, made a comment about Chelsea Clinton and the Clinton campaign that was irresponsible and inappropriate. Shuster, who apologized this morning on MSNBC and will again this evening, has been suspended from appearing on all NBC News broadcasts, other than to make his apology. He has also extended an apology to the Clinton family. NBC News takes these matters seriously, and offers our sincere regrets to the Clintons for the remarks.

all in all, it was a shitty comment and he deserves to be chastened for it.

contrary to fact hypothetical: had shuster made a remark about obama pimpin' out michelle, he would have been fired and possibly hunted down by enraged vigilantes, y/n? lolz

http://www.thefug.com/files/images/cans_0.jpg

wish they'd change the program's name to "Tucker!"

I think according to the Obama campaign's math, the answer is yes. He should still hold a slight lead in pledged delegates even if he loses in all three of those states, as long as they're not very distant losses.

It is possible, and if it happens it will be slight. It will be difficult to nominate a candidate who did not win New York, New Jersey, Florida, California, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania though.

I see this being brokered before Pennsylvania. Chairman Dean needs to step up.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/02/sweet_obama_pressing_clinton_t.html

Statement from Obama campaign: “Why should Democratic voters have to wait until after the primary campaign is over to find out important information about Senator Clinton's finances that Senator Obama has already disclosed?

For someone who claims to be fully vetted, hiding a campaign loan from voters until after Super Tuesday and refusing to release your tax returns until after the primary doesn't seem like the best way to prove that there are no surprises for the Republicans to find once they start digging.”

Clinton camp counters: "If you want to talk disclosure, what about Rezko?"

Not fair. Shuster is one of the best journos/commentators on MSNBC.

well the Clinons are acting like they don't know Rezko even though they've been photographed with him...

has she ever been on the losing side of an election?

My memory is whispering to me that Bill lost a campaign for Arkansas governor. I could be wrong there.

He lost when he ran for a house seat in '74.

Jondy sort of looks like Don Imus.

Rezko also has campaign financing ties with Villaraigosa, who's a major Clinton backer. Also:

According to the 1997 story in the Chicago Tribune, both Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton attended the fund-raiser for Senator Moseley-Braun on June 25, 1997. And the next day, records show, one of Mr. Rezko’s companies donated $10,000 to a state Democratic party organization that was supporting Ms. Moseley-Braun, records show.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/25/the-rezko-clinton-connection/

http://newsblogs.chicagotribune.com/clout_st/2008/02/ex-gov-edgar-sa.html
Ex-gov Edgar says Rezko reflects more on Blagojevich than Obama

"I haven't seen anything yet I would consider as a smoking gun with that," Edgar says. "I took campaign contributions from Tony Rezko and, I don't know, I don’t remember him ever asking for anything. He was one of those guys that liked to be involved."

Edgar is a repub btw

yeah I doubt Clinton's gonna wanna push the Rezko angle very far

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/0b568f786d

not actually funny, but a pretty spot-on hillary impersonation

Schuster was suspended.

Good.

What pissed me off was that, for fuck's sake, Chelsea Clinton is 27 years old and is capable of acting and thinking on her own. I mean, what if one of my relatives ran for office and I went out and campaigned on their behalf. Clearly I don't have a brain and am just being pimped out right?

It will be difficult to nominate a candidate who did not win New York, New Jersey, Florida, California, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania though.

otm. as an Obama backer I think he really needs to prove himself by winning one of the upcoming big ones.

Carville likely has some hand in the HRC campaign:

Now, maybe there's some other explanation for it. But personally, if I'd been vigorously denying a role in Hillary Clinton's campaign (beyond financial contributions), I'd probably be especially protective of that itinerary if its front page referred to participating in an "HRC strategy call."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080207.WBwbradwanski20080207132831/WBStory/WBwbradwanski/

also: ROFLWAU & KUDOS to JW for making teh wankette frontpage

has she ever been on the losing side of an election?

it should be mentioned that thanks to Jack Ryan's scandal, Obama skated into the senate without hardly even having to run against Alan Keys.

Conversely, that year's democratic primary race for the Illinois senate seat is a testament to Obama's ability to go up against the establishment and win, as well as proving that "the more people hear/see him, the more they like him" is OTFM.

"Wizard Is Hungry"

My memory is whispering to me that Bill lost a campaign for Arkansas governor. I could be wrong there.

they lost in 1980, due to a Cuban riot at Ft. Chaffee and his raising the cost of car tags.

Clinton got rid of his bearded advisors and Hillary dropped the Rodham from her official name. He was re-elected two years later.

Obama's primary race? What? Someone leaked his opponent Hull's divorce records w/allegations he abused his ex-wife and the guy's campaign tanked.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blair_Hull

ur annoying.

Jon that's awesome

Obama is the only person I've ever voted for who has won.

xxxp lol kudos jon

xp gtfo w/ that daria. Hull was NEVER a formidable opponent, just some loser with a ton of money.

ok, maybe he was a formidable opponent, but i was talking more about his ability to eat away at Hynes' lead the way he has Hillary's.

purely anecdotally, no one in Illinois liked Hull regardless of his money or possible wife beating tendencies.