Dontrelle Willis. . .

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still absolutely no chance he starts the AS game w/ la russa managing. : (

at the same time, carpenter kinda deserves the attention.

― John (jdahlem), Sunday, 3 July 2005 18:42 (eighteen years ago) link

I love this man.

― Daniel Cohen (dayan), Sunday, 3 July 2005 18:55 (eighteen years ago) link

Fifth complete game, fourth shutout. Zoinks!!

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Sunday, 3 July 2005 20:48 (eighteen years ago) link

Clemens still deserves the start. (plus we'd get to see Piazza tip the hitters agin...)

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 5 July 2005 12:39 (eighteen years ago) link

THIS TIME IT COUNTS

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 5 July 2005 12:39 (eighteen years ago) link

woah, I think John was right about regression.

― gygax! (gygax!), Saturday, 9 July 2005 17:31 (eighteen years ago) link

There are only 5 african-american starting pitchers in MLB.

― gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 11 July 2005 22:42 (eighteen years ago) link

Doc Gooden: Now more than ever

― Jimmy Mod Is Sick of Being The Best At Everything (ModJ), Monday, 11 July 2005 22:51 (eighteen years ago) link

Willis' Friday night thumping enabled LaRussa to make Carpenter a future trivia answer (clearly a Clemens-Piazza reunion was never in the [C]ards)...

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 12 July 2005 13:33 (eighteen years ago) link

Month ERA  WHIP
April 1.29 0.83
May   2.06 1.23
June  2.62 1.30
July  7.58 1.37

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 19 July 2005 16:01 (eighteen years ago) link

Alex what are you doing on Saturday?

― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 20 July 2005 17:34 (eighteen years ago) link

hahaha you sure that's a good idea?

― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 20 July 2005 17:40 (eighteen years ago) link

"Alex what are you doing on Saturday?"

Hahaha I'm sorry. I would totally do this, but it's an evening game and I can't swing it.

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 20 July 2005 21:42 (eighteen years ago) link

oh shit, i totally thought it was a daygame! nevermind. :-D

― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 20 July 2005 22:07 (eighteen years ago) link

He pitched on Friday anyway. And got shelled. For the fourth time this month (his one quality start was a complete game shutout of the Mets.) So here is where we speculate what happens to Dontrelle Willis' head post-All Star break, cuz clearly this is time this is not a regression to the mean or park-related or any bullshit like that. He's completely falling apart. Is it mental? Mechanical? Physical? Whatever it is it's weird and pretty sad.

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Sunday, 24 July 2005 17:49 (eighteen years ago) link

his ERA is well over 3 now. looks like the Cy Young is gonna come down to Carpenter and Clemens.

― gear (gear), Sunday, 24 July 2005 18:05 (eighteen years ago) link

*Cough* Martinez *cough*

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Sunday, 24 July 2005 18:07 (eighteen years ago) link

and him!

― gear (gear), Sunday, 24 July 2005 19:06 (eighteen years ago) link

i was told pedro didn't even hit 90 in his last start.

willis has totally gone to shit. maybe it is fatigue!

― John (jdahlem), Monday, 25 July 2005 01:03 (eighteen years ago) link

For some reason, the Giants own Donrelle. He is now 0-6 lifetime versus SF (including postseason). He's from nearby Alameda (right next to Oakland) so maybe it's a homecoming thing.

― gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 25 July 2005 15:29 (eighteen years ago) link

Willis is now 7th among NL pitchers in VORP (Patterson is 6th). Could fatigue related to the wacky motion be a second-half factor?

If Clemens continue to perform as he has, I don't care who wins the NL Cy; anyone with eyes will know who the best pitcher was. Considering the era (as well as the ERA), he's threatening to better Gibson in '68, at age 43 to Bob G's 32.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 25 July 2005 15:48 (eighteen years ago) link

i think it's far more likely that he fucks up his mechanics in some way, which seems really easy to do w/ such a complex windup. i mean, big windups were typical back when dudes routinely threw 300+ innings a year, right?

― John (jdahlem), Monday, 25 July 2005 15:55 (eighteen years ago) link

either that or he hits some kind of mo rivera-ish annual dead arm period for a few starts.

― John (jdahlem), Monday, 25 July 2005 15:57 (eighteen years ago) link

three weeks pass...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=250817128

― gear (gear), Thursday, 18 August 2005 00:04 (eighteen years ago) link

Another shutout! Whoa!

He's allowed zero ER in eleven starts this year (vs Clemens' ten). Take away those three terrible starts he had in a row and his ERA is nearly cut in half.

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 18 August 2005 00:05 (eighteen years ago) link

Month ERA WHIP
April 1.29 0.83
May 2.06 1.23
June 2.62 1.30
July 7.58 1.37
August0.86 0.86 (before today!)

― gear (gear), Thursday, 18 August 2005 00:08 (eighteen years ago) link

Pshaw... big whoop against the injury-decimated sub-.500 Padres at cavernous ProPlayer Stadium.

For some real excitement, check out what's going on over in the ALCentral right now ...

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 00:22 (eighteen years ago) link

same pattern he's shown pretty much every year.

and right gygax, clearly anyone could pitch a 5 hitter against san diego in THAT park. it's not like there's any precedent w/ willis here; obv luck.

― John (jdahlem), Thursday, 18 August 2005 12:47 (eighteen years ago) link

I guess there's a distinct difference between you and me:

I like to see good pitchers outduel good teams whereas you are a Yankees fan.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:25 (eighteen years ago) link

I like to see good pitchers outduel good teams

G! I didn't know you gave up on the Giants!

― David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:29 (eighteen years ago) link

His other shutouts were against Washington, Philly, at Atlanta, and at the Mets. None of those teams suck. He also gave up zero ER against the Angels and the Reds (who are a losing team, but are also one of the highest-scoring teams in MLB).

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:33 (eighteen years ago) link

See upthread about Park Factors.

I also am a big fan of all this "throw out every game he got 7-8 runs scored on him and he's the third best pitcher in the NL" talk.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:35 (eighteen years ago) link

who is a good pitcher, then, gygax? and what pitcher does not have games where they give up 7 or 8 runs, other than clemensbot?

― Jams Murphy (ystrickler), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:52 (eighteen years ago) link

Chris Carpenter

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:54 (eighteen years ago) link

I'm willing to bet gygax! will completely change his tune if Willis ever comes to the Giants.

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 18 August 2005 16:55 (eighteen years ago) link

Obviously you've never read my posts about the Giants... like my love for Neifi, Tucker, Alfonzo, Durham, Nen, F-Rod, RUETER is undying.

But back to Dontrelle... Chris Carpenter has given up fewer earned runs in his last 16 starts than Dontrelle did over the span of those 3 meltdown starts.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:00 (eighteen years ago) link

I also am a big fan of all this "compare one pitcher's fantastic run w/ another pitcher's shit run" talk.

― David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:02 (eighteen years ago) link

There used to be a stat (it may still be around) that tracked a pitcher's consistency. Let me google.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:02 (eighteen years ago) link

but these last two carpenter seasons are aberrations! until he posts 12 years of sub-3.50 ERA, then we can hardly judge him, can we?

(yes carpenter is good)

― Jams Murphy (ystrickler), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:02 (eighteen years ago) link

Yeah I don't see anyone disputing Carpenter being good. But Willis is obv quite good too (when he isn't falling apart like he did in July.) Only a weirdo with an axe to grind disputes that.

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:07 (eighteen years ago) link

My main gripes (if you actually take the time to read the thread above!) about Dontrelle: he's inconsistent, and he's a fast starter which is true on both accounts. also that he's overrated but that's objective.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:10 (eighteen years ago) link

Me: Wow he's pitching great!
Gyg: He's pitching at home soon he'll come back to reality.
Me (couple of weeks later): He's still pitching pretty great!
Gyg: Yeah, but he'll come back to reality soon enough.
Gyg (pointing at mid-June stats): Look he's totally fucking up!

Me (at ACTUAL end of June): Um no he still looks pretty good.
Gyg: Yeah, but he'll fuck after the All Star break. He always does.

In your own words dude!

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:14 (eighteen years ago) link

There used to be a stat (it may still be around) that tracked a pitcher's consistency. Let me google.

We had the same discussion a couple of months ago re: Johan Santana, and it was generally agreed that he'd been hit hard a few times but in most of his starts he'd been excellent. Most teams would prefer a guy who's excellent most of the time to a guy who is consistently good all of the time.

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:16 (eighteen years ago) link

Don't you mean subjective?

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:17 (eighteen years ago) link

Johan is obviously a slow-starter although his K-rate nearly disappeared for a while and his slugging%-allowed began spiking. Now Johan I would definitely love on the Giants.

(PS: Pierzynski was another Giant I hated Alex, and the fact Sabean gave up Nathan AND Liriano for that lousy POS is another reason to hate him. So to answer your question: yes, it is subjective whether I'm a weirdo or not.)

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 17:22 (eighteen years ago) link

I believe the opp of the 'consistency' you refer to is what BP calls Flakiness (can't find the stat however).

If you don't throw out any stats DW is somewhere around 5th-7th best NL pitcher.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 18 August 2005 18:07 (eighteen years ago) link

He's inched up to #2 (ahead of TheRocket!) on Bill James' Cy Predictor.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 18 August 2005 18:11 (eighteen years ago) link

The Cy Predictor overrates closers, though (saves, specifically).

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 18 August 2005 18:24 (eighteen years ago) link

"If you don't throw out any stats DW is somewhere around 5th-7th best NL pitcher."

I was thinking closer to 5th than 7th, but either way he's pretty good, def a far cry from overrated or simply a "fast-starter".

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 18 August 2005 18:44 (eighteen years ago) link

dude gygax willis is 16-8, he's thrown 6 CG, 5 shutouts, and his era is 2.64. no amount of shite you throw out is going to mask the fact that he's having a great freaking year.

granted even i don't really think he's THAT good, but he is a damn good pitcher - and a fun guy to watch. so i don't think he's overrated in the slightest. he's like ichiro for example.

― John (jdahlem), Thursday, 18 August 2005 19:22 (eighteen years ago) link

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