2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

jesus christ what happened over there

yeah lots of parallels with coolidge! thanks, fucking rag that used to be worth a read once upon a time.

i wonder what the likelihood is, assuming that obama wins, that they'll make a push for palin in '12.

― omar little, Saturday, October 4, 2008 2:47 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

we can dream of future lolz to come

Lately, though, I wonder if Mr Obama plans to be the new JFK or the next Silent Cal.

Really.

YA RLY

I did not approve that message btw.

Heheh I like how at The Economist, you don't need a "username" or a "login name" or anything like that to comment, you need a "pen name". Classy oh yeah.

SIR--

To be fair to them, their live-blogging of the debates has been fine.

Although that's like saying they did an OK job of shitting the bed.

Or assuming there's even a bed to shit in.

Question I've been wondering about re US elections, projections etc: In elections where one candidate has had a clear lead, say a couple of weeks before election day, has there been an observable late tendency in "opposing" states of tilting further that way as well, as a result of voters "wanting to be on the winning team", so to speak?

I don't think people care about being on the winning team, but people who know their guy has lost may not bother turning out.

The opposite tendency is also not uncommon (i.e. people tend to think their vote matters less when a ticket is thought to be overwhelmingly popular.)

races tend to tighten towards the end

Thanks, all v interesting. Anyone have links to proper quantitative research having been done on stuff like this?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/should-we-be-discounting-obamas-lead.html

I was gonna say "well yeah but apart from 538", but I hadn't seen that one, so thanks!

i wonder what the likelihood is, assuming that obama wins, that they'll make a push for palin in '12.

I wonder/worry about this as well.

i'd worry about jindal

he'd energize the base just as much but you know he's actually accomplished something

Palin '12 come on, that just seems silly (to ein Ausländer at least). The party must have many many candidates with I dunno at least 80% of her appeal and 330% her competency surely?

^xpost

Jindal, yep, seems more worrisome (in my limited knowledge), he's even more of a relig maniac as well isn't he?

Yeah, honestly, I think Palin is a dead letter at this point for a variety of reasons.

i can def see her making a third place in iowa 5th in nh then drop out and go home sort of run

ya similar to giuliani kinda? star of the party runs for pres in an election past her prime but hardline supporters still hold on for dear life

Giuliani was never really a Republican star though, except for immediately post-9/11.

More like an even more right-wing Quayle actually (except like ya know popular).

Alan Keyes II: The Revenge

We can only hope, but I don't think Keyes was ever popular either.

assuming the current trend holds, people will maybe say that mccain lost despite palin and not because of palin, and the way people in the far right of the gop are gushing about her i can see her at least giving it a major shot in '12. in fact i would be surprised if she didn't.

I think she will be the nominee in 2012. Can I get odds on this?

If she didn't have Troopergate hanging over her head I might agree, omar. (I'm not about to go all Fitzmas on next Friday's report -- do not count chickens etc., and that includes elections of course -- but the sense right now, especially now that the legal attempts to block the report and the subpoenas are almost exhausted, and especially *since* those attempts were so immediate and frenetic to start with after she was named as VP candidate, seems like she's going to be in a world of political hurt on that front soonish. If so and if she faces a crippled remainder of term or worse as a result, that's going to be major hay for potential rivals -- who are also probably thinking right now how best to combine those points of hers that appeal with a sense of 'hey, I also actually know what I'm talking about.')

Thus Jindal in four years if he's lucky: "*Unlike* a certain governor from up north I saw out my time as governor here being squeaky clean. And I'm from Louisiana of all places!"

also TedStevensGate is now a go too, after the judge threatened to dismiss the case

as in the trial will go on, despite the frustrated judge etc

Pfff holy shit. The mere notion of this possibility (SP candidacy), after the exposure so far, gives me reluctant confidence that the regular Norwegian slang expression for overly facevalue idiot chaos'n'lol pageantry -- "American situations" loosely translated -- is not entirely unwarranted.

No offense or animus or anything AT ALL intended to all you nonidiotic Americans, srsly.

(Another slang expression when chaos gets totally overboard, btw, is "completely Texas". Again, n.o.i. to Texans.)

Sadly many other countries fall for "American traditions" too

Oh they & we have our own traditions of wrongity as well of course. You're so much more visible though.

Norwegian slang expression for overly facevalue idiot chaos'n'lol pageantry -- "American situations" loosely translated -- is not entirely unwarranted.

(Another slang expression when chaos gets totally overboard, btw, is "completely Texas". Again, n.o.i. to Texans.)

― anatol_merklich, Saturday, October 4, 2008 8:35 PM (16 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

L O L :) !

Both of those were hell to try to translate (because as slang obv untranslatable); the originals for the record:

amerikanske tilstander
helt Texas

"completely Texas" makes me think that we have our own version of rhyming slang, tho

Mind you, we also have that slang thing in soccer, that if things tend to be somewhat unruly regarding both play and discipline, ie the soccer equivalent of "totally Texas" (goalies running around trying to score in dying moments, reckless revenge tackles, disorganized midfield battles consisting of useless 10 m high headers etc) is called... "Hawaii Football".

I doubt soccer is sufficiently pervasive in Hawaii to have caused a prominent style from there etc etc, so caveat lector obv.

(All of this surely mostly demonstrates that despite Matt Johnson's claim, we were the original 51st state. Marshall Help thankyou!)

omg you guys, we should be campaigning for a Keyes/Palin ticket

no way, Huckabee/Palin would be the cutest, folksiest ticket ever! winks, bass, Ric Flair

you guys no way are we winning in 2012 i am seeing dark clouds so worried ahhh

Due to Palin's comments about Obama being friends with terrorists, a McCain supporter in PA just called my mother (her friend) and explained that she can no longer vote for McCain. Palin is just too batshit crazy for her. So she's gonna vote Obama instead.

:D

what comments? xp

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/04/palin.obama/index.html

"We see America as the greatest force for good in this world," Palin said at a fund-raising event in Colorado, adding, "Our opponent though, is someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country."

Quick Q: I know The Corner has no shame in general, but isn't it embarrassing for them to stump for American Carol? Can't they be like: Well, politically we like it, but yeah, it's pretty awful.

"Our opponent though, is someone who sees America, it seems, as being so imperfect that he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country."

?!???!?!?

Which country? Opponent Country?