Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

yeah, i was about to say something similar - i hate it, but also i have nowhere else to put my money, so...emoticon shrug guy.

xp to yerac

imo it's perfectly reasonable to invest (passively) in the financial markets b/c there's basically two possibilities for how things go, which is that either the markets continue on average to generate returns either through dividends or speculative growth, in which case you win, or the world financial system conclusively implodes due to global upheaval, which, prepper fantasies aside, is impossible to plan for.

Like I guess the in between scenario would be something like a global turn away from speculation and the concept of "shareholder value", which would probably have your invested principal taking a hit but potentially seeing some cash returned to you by such entities as are hoarding it.

doom is not hard to plan for, you just have to take all of your retirement savings out of the market and reserve a condo room in the doomsday hotel, 13 floors deep in South Dakota

if you call that living!

Like I guess the in between scenario would be something like a global turn away from speculation and the concept of "shareholder value", which would probably have your invested principal taking a hit but potentially seeing some cash returned to you by such entities as are hoarding it.

i started a dumb thread about this recently, about how futile it seems to ever move away from our current system of corporation-driven capitalism, because the future and planning of so many people depends on it continuing (eg 401k plans)

xp

did you read the failing nyt's story on it yesterday? the doomsday hotel includes a pool! it is great there. some call it doomsdale

no I try not to read articles

tbh i just looked at the pictures

:0

that's the way to do it

it's insane that something like giving workers a raise that is still nowhere near a living wage is bad for shareholder value. xpost

It probably isn't actually bad for shareholder value and shareholders should value cash more than they do the problem is most of the shareholders are institutional investors that are just running up the score and have no material needs they actually need to address so fuck currency I guess? This is my guess.

One of the flaws built into the system is that, in fact, it would probably be good for shareholder value if EVERYONE got a raise (workers have more money to spend), yet it only harms your own corporation's share value to give your own workers a raise.

American capitalism is like an autoimmune disorder, is a thought that has been going through my head a lot lately.

so the markets are definitely rebounding tomorrow is what I'm gathering from this

that all depends on what trump yells about china to a reporter tomorrow over the deafening roar of a nearby helicopter

oh cool dow jones -775

so much depends
upon

what trump yells
about

china this
morrow

beside the 'cop
-ter roar

We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019

..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019

lol this man's grasp of world economics sure is something

Powell was literally nominated by Trump lmao

germany playing the game by ... checks notes ... entering a recession.

yes, but have you considered CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!

Crazy Inverted World

Companies & jobs are fleeing

Wait, this is... a good thing?

fleeing from China, I assume he means

this is a good thing for the US! those jobs are definitely coming right back into the US!

Rewards & Gains definitly need to be reaped ! fuck those guys

China has definitely taken more of a hit from the trade war than the US, however I think Trump underestimated the fact that China’s leadership doesn’t have to worry about being thrown out of office because of short term economic downturns but he does. I think China is content to wait until after the election.

i like to invert and i am crazy?

When the curve inverts, it means we've opened the portal to bizarro world, and the only way to fix it is to do everything backwards.

I love this bond yield and its inverted curve. As a teenager, I was often teased by my friends for my attraction to bond markets on the inverted side, ones where the 2-year yield topped the 10-year, markets that the average (basic) bro might refer to as "indicating a recession"

— Alex Yablon (@AlexYablon) August 14, 2019

these after hours seem calmer than last time

i guess everyone just assumes it will bounce back tomorrow ?

Why wouldn't it? Why wouldn't people assume that?

Many will, and they may be correct. The day will come where it doesn't bounce back, and it'll probably be sooner rather than later.

fwiw the single biggest trade today is someone betting that it will be back by october https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/someone-s-betting-big-on-an-s-p-500-rebound-as-sell-off-worsens?srnd=premium

the US tech industry is not big enough to cause a global recession, but wework's *insane* S-1 (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-14/wework-ipo-shows-it-s-the-most-magical-unicorn?srnd=opinion) and uber losing $20bn (with a b) a year do seem significant

the US tech industry is not big enough to cause a global recession

And yet the US tech industry (or at least Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon) is the closest we have right now to Too Big to Fail. I think their total valuation is something like $3 trillion? That's, what, more than 10% of the US GDP?

Didn't it do just that in 2001?

Nothing like 2008. Less deep where it happened and less global

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession

Think we may be in for more pain tomorrow, but there are certainly steps that can be taking to smooth things. This article sums up some of the available options. Just a question of whether the political will exists for any of it.

https://slate.com/business/2019/08/recession-economy-bond-market-yield-curve-trade-china-germany.html?via=homepage_taps_top

“Sure, keeping borrowing costs down might encourage some bad lending or investment bubbles that could lead to problems down the line, but that concern should probably be outweighed by the near and present danger of an actual recession. ”

article asks for lowering rates from the fed (expansionary monetary policy), raising infrastructure spending (expansionary fiscal policy), and stopping trade war (trade policy). i only have faith that one of these (fed) will get done.

I could see Trump flinching on the trade war. There's nothing driving it except his pride. If someone tells him he'll be more popular if he drops it, he may well listen.

Infrastructure seems extremely unlikely despite the fact it's presumably a bipartisan goal.

Infrastructure spending would require passing a budget, so that’s not happening

China is content to wait until after the election.

They've been targeting their own tarriffs/cessation of purchases on swing states. They clearly are using the means at their disposal. I don't think the success of Russian active measures escaped their attention either.

Looks like we aren't getting day 2 of market tanking. Guess that's a good sign.

China has definitely taken more of a hit from the trade war than the US, however I think Trump underestimated the fact that China’s leadership doesn’t have to worry about being thrown out of office because of short term economic downturns but he does. I think China is content to wait until after the election.

― o. nate

oh haha there are still people who believe america is a "democracy"

When was the last big stock drop that wasn't reversed within a few days?

the days after the brexit vote should've lasted longer. then there was 1Q 2016 when china's new circuit breaker kept going off at the beginning of the year and all of 2015 was bad for them.

Yeah, but how about the US?