2008 Primaries Thread

I think you are vastly underestimating the power of hillaryhate.

I'm assuming Hillary isn't gonna win. Partly based on the fact that Dems will realize Obama vs. McCain is a better matchup.

Hold on, I need to recalibrate my racial-stereotype Obama/Clinton vote counter here

static void CountPerson(DemocraticPerson p, ref float[] count)

{

    if (p.Ethnicity == Ethnicity.AfricanAmerican)

    {

        count[Candidate.Obama] += 1.0;

    }

    else if (p.Ethnicity == Ethnicity.Latino)

    {

        count[Candidate.Clinton] += 1.0;

    }

    else

    {

        // caucasian, asian, whatever

        if (p.Gender == Gender.Female)

        {

            if (p.Age >= 35)

            {

                count[Candidate.Clinton] += 1.0;

            }

            else

            {

                count[Candidate.Clinton] += 0.5;

                count[Candidate.Obama] += 0.5;

            }

        }

        else

        {

                count[Candidate.Obama] += 0.75;

                count[Candidate.Clinton] += 0.25;

        }

    }

}

Am I matching you guys right here?

After yesterday especially, I don't think we can assume automatically that Hillary will lose the nom or that she's the weaker GE candidate.

I think its weird that anyone would think I'm underestimating the Hillaryhate, considering that its one (among many) reasons I've always thought she was a shitty candidate and a bad idea for the Dem nom (as noted in this thread and the previous one)

One salient point: Obama, the lesser-known candidate, has now won or come extremely close in the two states that Bush pulled away from us last time.

morbius are there any active politicians you like or respect? what are the policy goals you want a new president to enact?

-- and what, Wednesday, February 6, 2008 1:36 PM (35 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

Still not voting for Shmanesty McCain. Actually thinking about voting for Obama just to help start the process of:

1. cleaning out the party so they can decide what is is they actually stand for

or

2. officially becoming Independent and looking at third party options from here on out (no more Republican voting here)

xp: Feingold

policy: start with reading Israel the riot act and cutting the Pentagon budget by 40%.

msnbc has the delegate count at

obama: 838
clinton: 834

thanks morbius, serious

popular vote in the dem race is within 1% by all counts

a cinema-oriented blogger on a numbing NYT editorial:

"Any candidate, and any party, presuming to unite this country must first unite their own. That is how democracy is supposed to work."

--Pravda

Outside of economics, strictly, I think the biggest achievement of the Bush Administration, 2000-2008, has been to work on a bipartisan effort with the media to pummel our country into a deeper acceptance of idiocy and insubstantiality, and to silence or marginalize those who would speak up in protest. Do so few really notice that all the candidates are using GWB's playbook from 2000? Heal, unite, bring good & honor back to the Oval Office. We're being branded and herded like cattle, and the vehicle for doing so is simply a narrative with a promised endpoint. Have your preferences--express your individuality in the form of your consumer choice for the presidential candidate--but please, folks, do it on our terms.

...Debord may have been a cranky and tyrannical avant-gardist prone to ridicule, but he was nevertheless right, and his condemnatory diagnosis was spot on. The first response: don't stay quiet.

http://elusivelucidity.blogspot.com/2008/02/obey.html

Should we be expecting an imminent Gore endorsement now that Obama fought Clinton to a draw on Super Tuesday?

Tbh, Morbs, that playbook is as old as democracy.

xpost

SPARTAAAAAA

One salient point: Obama, the lesser-known candidate, has now won or come extremely close in the two states that Bush pulled away from us last time.

-- gabbneb, Wednesday, February 6, 2008 1:11 PM (Wednesday, February 6, 2008 1:11 PM) Bookmark Link

But these are Democrat primaries. I don't expect Obama to get 80% of the Idaho vote in a general election (or even over 50%.)

policy: start with reading Israel the riot act and cutting the Pentagon budget by 40%.

-- Dr Morbius, Wednesday, February 6, 2008 2:16 PM (31 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

I agree that the US should, ideally, cut aid to Israel and make more demands on them, but this would make little more than a small dent in our vast Middle-Eastern foreign policy problems.

Should we be expecting an imminent Gore endorsement now that Obama fought Clinton to a draw on Super Tuesday?

this is what I was thinking as well. seems likely...?

I think you mean "Democratic," PP

my guess is that the gore, edwards, & richardson endorsements aren't going to fall right away, if anything they will probably be held in reserve until needed on March 4

^yea this my guess too. though if obama cleans up the next few states to come, we might see the endorsements before 3/4.

*well* before 3/4 is what i meant

i don't even assume that all 3 will go for obama -- i think that it's a bit naive, honestly

my guess is that edwards will endorse first, richardson will endorse when a clear front-runner becomes apparent, angling for a veep nod or cabinet slot, and that gore will not endorse before the general

it makes more sense politically for Richardson to go with Hillary

unless he really cares about and thinks he could get veep

Gore and Richardson have obvious Clinton (Bill) connections, so if they do make a strategic endorsement, it may be in that direction.

i don't even assume that all 3 will go for obama -- i think that it's a bit naive, honestly

yea you're right, i was mainly thinking gore and edwards. even edwards i really don't know. richardson is totally up in the air of course.

I dunno about that - lotta bad blood between Gore and the Clintons

x-post

edwards can't afford to wait very long if he wants his endorsement to still have impact --he has to reach his supporters before they are already fully incorporated into the other two camps

ok, that's all

It would make sense for Richardson to endorse Hillary, but then why hasn't he endorsed her yet? One of the networks asked him last night if he was ready to make an endorsement, even after having spent the Super Bowl with Bill Clinton, and he was still cagey. Although at one point it seemed as though he was saying he might prefer Obama if not for the fact of his long history with the Clintons.

i really don't see gore endorsing clinton, i don't know. i think either he won't endorse anyone, or he'll endorse obama

"Clinton poisoned the '00 election for Gore" is one available narrative

He might know that he makes more sense as an Obama veep given that hispanics already like Hillary a lot. It also might be bad for him to endorse Hillary and then see his State vote the other way. Or he just might not be sure who he really likes best.

honestly, i think an obama / richardson ticket would be very formidable in the general election

rainbow coalition lol

hmm haven't thought of that before but does sound like a fairly impressive combo - Richardson gets to flout his foreign policy exp and pull with Latinos, Obama handles the "vision thing"... altho I don't see Bill being a very effective "attack dog"

I like Richardson, but think he's a bit of a disaster as a politician, and such a ticket would raise a serious Dems=lol, minorities problem

how do "brokered convetions" work?

if it ends up being one, does ted kennedy's support for obama mean anything?

cuz like he seems like a guy that would pull out old favors and naked pixx he's had for years to get shit done....

Obama/Salazar could be interesting because both 'transcend' their designated racial identity in ways that appeal in big-white-majority cultures

among Dems at least, Obama seems to have a bigger problem with Northeastern white ethnics than with rural western whites

obama/napolitano

"white ethnics" == italians? portuguee? what

Sebelius better than Napolitano

I'd be tempted to say that Obama picking anyone vaguely Blue-Doggish would cost him some of his starry-eyed collegiate "Change" acolytes, but given said kiddies' parents' utter denial of Clinton's triangulating Reaganism, probably not a big deal.

obama choosing another female pol as vp would play as "ZOMG ULTIMATE SNUB"

"white ethnics" == italians? portuguee? what

portuguese - lol, Southern New England. Irish, italian, jewish, polish, what have you.

obama choosing another female pol as vp would play as "ZOMG ULTIMATE SNUB"

-- elmo argonaut, Wednesday, February 6, 2008 3:23 PM (49 seconds ago) Bookmark Link

plus napolitano would siphon AZ votes from mccain

too bad moynihan's dead

um, I know Teddy's the most confirmed of legislators and all, but is Obama/Kennedy completely out of the question? just asking.