Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

oh, none of that is a red flag (what day is it). according to post 09/2008 rules, all of those banks should have funeral plans laid out.

right, i'm not worried about the banks. i'm worried about the treasury secretary.

I hope Secretary Mnuchin remembered to bring his passport to Cabo, so he can re-enter the USA.

I think my post was sarcasm. Too much wine last night.

granted I don't follow US politics closely but seems like a weird move to me. and potentially risks sparking the panic he thinks it will obviate

afaik the US prudential regulatory regime is fairly closely aligned to that in europe (I mean, it all comes from a supranational body - the basel committee). so - provided they're operating within the requirements of the regulatory envelope - the banks should be fairly well capitalised and stress tested, with sufficient liquidity to meet all of their regulatory requirements (LCR/NFSR etc)

NSFR*

good morning!

So many of the ipos from recent years are in such dire, dire shape. Snapchat, Blue Apron, GoPro, Fitbit, Switch, Roku, Box. I am kind of surprised that etsy does well.

should be an interesting day. possibility of crash, wouldn't that be weird for xmas eve

nah, most people are out of the office and it's a half day for the nyse (market closes at 1pm).

If the market falls another 7-8% it will have wiped out the entire post-Nov 2016 rally. Prob only needs to fall 4-5% if you include inflation.

no, really -- let's run america like a business!

Gonna close at around-500 for the worst Christmas Eve day of trading ever

oil tanking so hard.

as it were

I mean, I am not sad.

I am in no way endorsing any of these things, but I personally have been trading 2-3xs inverse etfs for oil, biotech, tech and china. so as i mentioned above about short instruments without having to technically short.

― Yerac, Thursday, 20 December 2018 19:37 (four days ago)

indebting generations of americans will pay off someday, just watch

today appears poised to give a whole new meaning to "santa claus rally"

More than $20,000 lost from my 401k in the last three weeks.

ouch

I'm too young for it to be worth giving myself heartburn over oscillations in my net worth rn but I'm counting on Yerac to tell us when we reach the bottom so I can resume plowing cash into VFFVX

There is no bottom. Have we learned nothing post 2016?

and don't worry about your 401k unless you are, like, close to being able to withdraw from it. Although I usually looked at mine once a month to see if I wanted to redistribute or needed to get rid of some company stock (if they give you an as compensation).

At any rate, market timers don't invest at the bottom. They wait till there's only despondancy in peers and pop culture (ie, everyone who wanted to sell did) and tech indicators suggests the doofuses who look at charts are about to get back in.

this thread is the top i’m shorting ilx so fucking hard

love to bounce dead cats off the ground

love a 5% rally on no news

Dead cat bounce?

Insanity. I just counted how many trades I had to make. 19.

Rest of this week should be fun.

wonder the most recent january the DJIA opened the year so dire

2016 was hell.

good news everybody

.⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ says there was a “glitch” in stock markets last month, but they will go up again as trade deals are made and have a long way (up) to go pic.twitter.com/GKgYEy5oDq

— Jeff Mason (@jeffmason1) January 2, 2019

he's taking the SPX private at $420

Apple lowering guidance https://t.co/VBDek4GWD9

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) January 2, 2019

Kinda curious what 'net-cash neutral' exactly means in this context.

Our profitability and cash flow generation are strong, and we expect to exit the quarter with approximately $130 billion in net cash. As we have stated before, we plan to become net-cash neutral over time.

They’re going to continue spending their cash board on buybacks is presumably what that means.

Would that mean no increase or decrease in cash on the balance sheet?

*hoard

weakness in china. is that good or not. i forget?

Net cash neutral suggests they plan on matching stock buybacks and cap ex to cash flow. Ie, if net cash neutral in 2019, they'd have $130B on the books in 2020.

feel like this is all karma for getting rid of the headphone jack

fuck u apple

They have a business model predicated on phone users updating on an annual or biannual basis. I'm perfectly content with a $40 pre-paid plan (ie, no subsidy for phone purchases), and buying whatever iPhone is available at the $150 mark on gazelle.com should I break the screen. 5S forever.

As Apple goes, so goes the Nasdaq. pic.twitter.com/OxGyEWGKeG

— Rene Nielson (@nielson_rene) January 3, 2019

airpods look atrocious. Stock should tank purely for that reason.

Have the last 3-4 generations of iPhones had any important innovations at all? Like there's no reason for me to get a new one, especially knowing that it doesn't even have the headphone jack. All the "new" stuff feels gimmicky and unessential. Perhaps not Apple's fault - I'm not sure what there is left to do in the smartphone space - but relying on customers dumping a grand for tiny incremental upgrades is pretty dumb

the upgrades are getting more and more incremental yeah, unless they can convince the mass populace that they need to play fortnite on their phones there's not a lot of reason to upgrade more than once every 4 or 5 years anymore

I think the price is up in part bc carrier subsidized upgrades are kinda going away and people are replacing their phones every 3-4 years instead of every year or two like clockwork.

my kids were happily playing fortnite on my old 5s for days until i caught them at it

hell i upgraded from a 2014 phone to a 2019 phone and sure everything loads a bit faster but the only major difference to me is the battery life is like 10x longer