U.S. Supreme Court: Post-Nino Edition

I wonder how bitter Collins is about Mitch not following through on his end of the deal for her tax cut vote. Those kinds of things matter.

what was his end of the deal?

I don’t think she was sincere about trusting him.

Mitch promised Collins that he would bring a bill to shore up funding for healthcare exchanges to the floor. He never did.

Nerdstrom may be right, idk

I wouldn't hang my hope on Collins.

the ever-reliable salon is already trolling us by telling us that whoever trump picks "won't be that much worse" than kennedy:

https://www.salon.com/2018/06/27/listen-up-progressives-anthony-kennedy-was-not-your-friend/

Trump should nominate Jared

even if trump somehow nominates a guy who shares every single legal opinion with Anthony Kennedy, he will still be much worse cause he'll be decades younger

otm

David Souter to thread pls

oh hey, it's amanda marcotte, one of the great take artists of the 2016 election. hadn't heard from her for a while.

Guess what, literally not one single progressive thought Kennedy was "our friend." The reason people are upset is that (1) he will replaced with someone worse and (2) his retirement now means we don't get to pick the replacement.

Scott Lemieux wrote a better obit for Kennedy:

Of course, as Kennedy demonstrated particularly forcefully this term, his liberal votes have always been an aberration; he’s a reliable conservative vote on most issues. The even larger significance of Kennedy’s retirement is the extent to which it entrenches a conservative majority on the court, which will have far-reaching effects on both American politics and the future of the court.

Justice Clarence Thomas, still only 70, is the oldest Republican remaining on the court. The other four will be on the court for a long time yet barring force majeure. And should Trump be able to replace the 79-year-old Stephen Breyer or 85-year-old Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Republicans would have a hammerlock on the Supreme Court for at least a generation, even though the coming generations are more liberal on issues like same-sex marriage and abortion than the ones currently in control.

What’s particularly disturbing about this is that Republicans have gotten its firm hold on the court despite lacking a popular mandate. The Republican Party has lost the popular vote in six out of seven presidential elections, and is relying more and more on the race-baiting of Trump and his allies to bring supporters to the polls because its domestic agenda is highly unpopular. The party is also relying increasingly on vote suppression of nonconservative racial minority groups rather than attracting voters to stay in power, most recently with the assistance of a Supreme Court that is at war with the Voting Rights Act and unwilling to overrule even the most egregious partisan gerrymanders.

i can't imagine thomas would retire any time soon

We're back to the Fuller Court! Or the horrifying mid thirties Hughes Court.

The "popular mandate" angle is bunk. Are people still clinging to that? Very tragic.

But Lemieux is obviously right on the other part--it's very likely that Trump will get to replace RBG after he replaces Kennedy. Anyone who isn't at least a little bit skeptical of a rigid conservative majority for the next 25 years should be.

really depressing

Dude, we all think netflix and chilling and having gay sex and abortions all in the same day was the best it was ever getting in our lifetime. Where have you been???

ok lol

oh, that was an xpost.

The "popular mandate" angle is bunk. Are people still clinging to that?

why?

i think that strategy could backfire. the "open" SCOTUS seat was a big voting reason for trump-skeptic republicans. might stem the "blue wave" or whatever ts called in november and not get you the 51 senate seats to blocks it in the first place. idk. this is fucking bullshit.

huh?

The popular vote in a presidential election has nothing to do with nominating or confirming someone to the Court.

Good lord the sitting Dems had their chance to make the Biggest Ever Stink and hold the World's Largest Grudge after the Garland shenanigans and ensuing installment of Gorsuch. But it seems forgotten until right now.

This moment should be the greatest fundraising event of all time for Democrats.

the democrats have been painfully slow on the uptake, but maybe things have changed? idk

the sitting Dems had their chance to make the Biggest Ever Stink and hold the World's Largest Grudge after the Garland shenanigans and ensuing installment of Gorsuch

they made a huge stink, filibustered Gorsuch, and have spent the entire term either withholding votes from McConnell or throwing up procedural roadblocks. The only exception to this were the couple of defections for the tax cut bill.

do you guys even know how the Senate works, what it means to have no power to block things

huh?

― morning wood truancy (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, June 27, 2018 5:42 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

sorry, my bad, that wasn't clear. i am speculating if the dems had the idea to block trump's nominee a la garland until 2021 (this is sounding dumber than i thought as im typing it out so ignore me if you want). so, assuming the dems had the power to stall in whatever way the confirmation of kennedy's successor until after the midterms (a gigantic if) in order to have a chance at securing a senate majority and thus be in the driver's seat to hold out for a nominee of their liking.

my concern was that the dems are counting on huge turnout and lower gop turnout in the midterms to secure said senate majority, and that delaying the SCOTUS vote until november could be a rallying cry for GOPers who care a lot about that. and that could put a 51-seat majority out of reach.

it's hare-brained and speculative, so apolz.

I think he really just meant that two GOP presidents have been elected without winning the popular vote, which is a problem in and unto itself. The fact that Presidents basically choose the new Justices compounds the problem.

hundreds of posts like this from people who breathe politics https://t.co/eNhFW536FU

— Gorilla Princip (@Michelgrabowy) June 27, 2018

i got an idea you dum dums how bout you just take the capitol building and crumple it up and put it in your pocket that way they cant hold a quorum bingo bongo done.

— Gorilla Princip (@Michelgrabowy) June 27, 2018

At least the guys who make 45 minute youtubes armchair generalling Barbarossa into a winning campaign know which way east is

— Gorilla Princip (@Michelgrabowy) June 27, 2018

my concern was that the dems are counting on huge turnout and lower gop turnout in the midterms to secure said senate majority, and that delaying the SCOTUS vote until november could be a rallying cry for GOPers who care a lot about that.
― 21st savagery fox (m bison), Wednesday, June 27, 2018 6:54 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

My eternal concern is that the GOP base cares more about their shit than the dems will ever do.

yeah basically

do you guys even know how the Senate works, what it means to have no power to block things

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, June 27, 2018 6:53 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Remember when the Senate successfully prevented Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan from getting on the Court?

they made a huge stink, filibustered Gorsuch, and have spent the entire term either withholding votes from McConnell or throwing up procedural roadblocks. The only exception to this were the couple of defections for the tax cut bill.

they did the bare minimum that was expected of them, given the circumstances, and iirc part of the excuse for why they didn't make a bigger fuss at the time was that everyone was so certain that hillary clinton would win. a "huge stink" is what republicans did with #benghazi for 4 years straight, and that was in response to something that wasn't even real. every american knows about benghazi, even if they only know that it's something related to hillary clinton and how republicans hate her. in contrast, few americans know that mitch mcconnell and the republicans shamelessly stole a supreme court seat and that it was one of the consequential thefts in the history of this country

every single time democrats reference the supreme court or mcconnell they should be bringing that shit up, #benghazi style

OTM!

What they did was pretty traditional stink. Expected stink. If there's simply no power to block things, then do you give up and say it's all of no use anyway? Or can you unite behind one issue and get the fucking vote out.

McConnell and the rest of his team was LIVID about Harry Reid killing the filibuster and them chickens are still coming home to roost. Most of the people I know who have admitted to voting for Trump say it was about the Court.

It's not like every time the presidency of Trump is mentioned there isn't a huge scandal hanging over him, either. So there's definitively a possibility to be even more agressive.

didn't realize you guys were referring to pre-Trump era there.

even so, you think the Senate and Hillary didn't bring up the blocked nomination thing enough to... drive turnout? Hillary brought it up all the time and no one listens to Senators during presidential elections. As it was, the court seats were referenced constantly during the election iirc. idk what you mean by "bigger fuss" and I don't think you do either, frankly.

Well for example, I have the feeling there's a bigger fuss made about Trump's russian relations than the fact that Roe vs Wade might disappear within 15 months.

uh not today

Not saying that one thing should outfuss the other, just pointing out that bigger fusses exist.

I know because I made the miserable decision to watch MSNBC from 4 p.m. onward.

few americans know that mitch mcconnell and the republicans shamelessly stole a supreme court seat

like... every Democrat knows this? what are you even basing this hyperbole on?

and I said two hours to myself, "Maybe this'll stop them from discussing Russia shit."

like... every Democrat knows this? what are you even basing this hyperbole on?

i don't live in california or new york

Well okay but the fact that you say 'not today' is really what I think Karl Malone was arguing: the gears have been turning for something like today to happen ever since the Garland steal has been consummated, and it is only now that the liberals in America are starting to understand that Roe vs Wade has no future anymore.

is there a non-miserable time to watch msnbc

They’ve been covering the migrant crisis pretty heavily last couple weeks. Moreso than Russia stuff

this guy seems like a likely nom
https://empiricalscotus.com/2017/12/07/the-next-nominee/

Yeah! That's another example of a big fuss that I haven't seen about the Garland steal.