2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

ugh, it's fine to worry about obama underperforming where he's polling strong, but the "bradley effect" premise that racists (i.e. people who won't vote for obama based on race) wouldn't tell a pollster over the phone some secondary reason why they oppose obama, but would instead declare their support for him -- why? because of the huge social pressure an anonymous pollster phone call exerts on him? highly fucking unlikely.

yeah I never "panicked" either - I was definitely in the "everybody chill out, I GOT THIS.jpg" category.

And the GOP isn't going away as a party (lolz) its just that they're going to have to reconstitute/redesign themselves. The coalition that had been propelling and controlling the party from at least the late 70s on has now fractured irrevocably - the neocons/aggro foreign policy guys, the big business plutocrats, and the fundie Xtians all completely hate each other now, and their power base has evaporated.

in sum: lol britishes

(x-posts_

That Time/CNN poll:

MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48

YES

― Z S, Wednesday, October 1, 2008 4:31 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark

whooooooo!!!

this is cuz i have phone banked. everyone thank me~~~

thank you!

Yay, only bankers we can trust right now! ;-)

good job!

ugh, it's fine to worry about obama underperforming where he's polling strong, but the "bradley effect" premise that racists (i.e. people who won't vote for obama based on race) wouldn't tell a pollster over the phone some secondary reason why they oppose obama, but would instead declare their support for him -- why? because of the huge social pressure an anonymous pollster phone call exerts on him? highly fucking unlikely.

― playing the abortion card (elmo argonaut), Wednesday, October 1, 2008 11:32 AM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

its gross but it doesnt make it any less true.

what is more likely is that obama will have enough support from "unlikely voters" to make the bradley effect question moot

just don't get overconfident. Must first learn to stand, then learn to fly.

My Rosh haShana spent with the Orthodox Jews of Philadelphia:

The few Obama supporters in the Ortho community this weekend have suddenly become outspoken and the majority of Orthos (McCain supporters) have become awfully quiet at the table. Talk of politics are forbidden at some of meals I've attended, and where a few months ago Republicans were calling me an Arab-lover for being pro-Obama, now they are just silent and really, really angry.

Anecdotal, but take from it what you will. :)

at least they didn't tell you that Obama's a secret muslim

Not this weekend. But a few months ago they did.

OBAMA OSAMA
HUMM
ARE THEY BROTHERS

Drudge is pumping the Gallup daily with a 4-pt O lead because it's the closest poll he can find

do they really use the phrase "arab-lover"????

There was actually a study lately (linked on 538?) which argued that the Bradley effect seems to be dying out in recent years. A good thing.

Bradley effect old racists seem to be dying out in recent years

hallelujah

that 538 post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

if there is a bradley effect, i think it's largely going to be in urban areas of blue states obama doesn't have to worry about. the real question is how big a win he can pull in African American-heavy border South states like VA, NC and FL.

i mean, people have been willing to be pretty upfront about race in this election

guys, BRADLEY != OBAMA

I liked Bradley, but Bradley made even Gray Davis seem lively.

i've been called arab-lover on a number of occasions. generally because i'm unwilling to admit that all arabs are lying murderers.

guys, BRADLEY != OBAMA

we're not talking about Bradley, we're talking about the much-discussed "Bradley effect," which most of us think doesn't exist (anymore)

i just love arabs! what can i say, i'm an arab lover.

aw admit you think they're all cute and cuddly!

x-post

I'm not denying the Bradley effect existed, but Bradley barely lost, and part of that was because he was Bradley, not because he was black.

furthermore, what Bradley lacked then, Obama doesn't lack today. Two totally different elections, two different people, two different times. It's referential at best, but not something to even think about re: this election IMHO

I certainly don't hate arabs, but by non-Orthodox standards I have pretty moderate to rightwing views on things like Israel. like i believe Jerusalem should remain entirely under the control of Israel. But in the ultra-Ortho community, if you don't believe arabs are inherently evil, you probably wanna have their babies.

how do their babies taste?

yummies?

I would have all these arab babies

Mackro, no one who discusses the potential impact of "the Bradley effect" (almost 50,000 google hits) is comparing Obama to Bradley

http://www.google.com/search2001/search?hl=en&q=%22sarah+palin%22&btnG=Google+Search

Haha wow.

How come "sarah palin" produces no results, but [wasilla + palin] pulls up sites in which "Sarah Palin" is mentioned?

― jaymc, Wednesday, October 1, 2008 3:46 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

it is because google sucked then

Top Republicans for Obama Release New Book, "Turning Red States Blue"

Longtime Republican Businessmen and Fundraisers Publish Book to Swing
Conservatives to Vote for Obama

Authors Aim Book at Rural White Voters

NEW YORK, Sept. 17 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Two top Republican businessmen
and party fundraisers are throwing their brainpower, their intimate
understanding of Republican core values and their money behind getting Senator
Barack Obama elected as U.S. President. Authors Wilbur O. Colom and James W.
Parkinson have teamed up to write a new 104-page book that makes a fiscal and
social argument on why conservatives should vote for Obama. Their book,
Turning Red States Blue: Obama's Mission to Win the Republican Vote (Genesis
Press), is being released this week and can be found online at
ObamaRepublicans08.com. The book costs $19.95.

To make sure the message of their book reaches their audience, the authors are
launching a marketing campaign aimed at Republican districts in rural areas in
Mississippi, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Alabama, where white voters
predominate. To kick off this effort, the entire book is being published in
25 hometown weekly papers in northeastern Mississippi, including Choctaw
Chronicle and Belmont & Tishomingo Journal, as a "Parade-style" insert.

This showed up in our local weekly paper today.

http://web.archive.org/web/20010411195533/www.alaskaseafood.org/table/recipes/firstannual8.htm

SWEET AND SAUCY GRILLED SALMON

Recipe by Alaska Fisherman Sarah Palin
Wasilla, Alaska

* 1 can (12 oz.) tomato sauce
* 1/4 cup packed brown sugar
* 1/4 cup molases
* 3 tbsp. ketchup
* 2 tbsp. apple cider vinegar
* 2 tbsp. dried minced onion
* 1 tbsp. Worcestershure sauce
* 1 tbsp. mustard
* 1 tbsp. dried bell pepper dices
* 1/4 tsp. each cinnamon and nutmeg
* 4 to 6 Alaska salmon fillets or steaks (4 to 6 oz. each)

Blend all ingredients, except seafood, in bowl; let set 10 to 15 minutes. Dip seafood into sauce, then place on hot oiled grill, not directly over heat source (coals or gas). Cover and vent. Cook about 6 to 12 minutes per inch of thickness, brushing with extra sauce, if desired. Do not overcook or burn edges.

Makes 4 to 6 servings.

Also great with Alaska halibut or cod!

only someone purely evil would do that to Alaskan salmon

Looks good to me.

sweet AND saucy

At least 7 people injured at an Obama rally in Kansas City where Michelle Obama is speaking

Is that from 2001?

those seven people wanted to show how proud they were to be American.

I missed the first half of the CBS news...did anybody see if she showed the Palin/Supreme Court gaffe?

Mordy did you see this

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=186076&title=Seniors-Citizens-Watch-the-Debate

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_palin_scotus_answer_drops.php

COURIC: What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?

PALIN: Well, let's see. There's --of course --in the great history of America rulings there have been rulings, that's never going to be absolute consensus by every American. And there are--those issues, again, like Roe v Wade where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So you know--going through the history of America, there would be others but--

COURIC: Can you think of any?

PALIN: Well, I could think of--of any again, that could be best dealt with on a more local level. Maybe I would take issue with. But you know, as mayor, and then as governor and even as a Vice President, if I'm so privileged to serve, wouldn't be in a position of changing those things but in supporting the law of the land as it reads today.

BOOM

I think there's an incredible tension within her in these answers. Her instinct is to just go for it! "Well, let's see. There's" and "Well, I could think of". Then, a brief realization that she's in way over her head. "--" and "--". Then, the pressure/relief of conforming to talking points.