2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

he's been up 6 (twice) and 8 points in VA polls taken in the last 2 weeks

way to go Missouri!! believe -> achieve

closet racism may prevent that and make it way closer than polls suggest.

shakey otm

shades of Bradley CA gubernatorial run (god I wish he had won. fucking Pete Wilson)

(er Deukmajian! they blur together for me)

"closet racism may prevent that and make it way closer than polls suggest"

I find this highly unlikely.

People are actually talking about an Edith Bunker effect.

I thought she was dead.

yah that shits been debunked - obama outperformed the polls in the primaries

It's nice that you people are happy today. But what if in 2 weeks' time the poll direction is the other way? It's not long since a lot of people were close to panicking.

It is odd, the way people talk about 'GOP split / GOP over' etc. Aren't these conservative parties among the most resilient forces in world politics? Not that long ago people here in the UK were talking about the strange death of Tory Britain. Now people are talking about the death of the Labour Party, and just about everyone believes we will have a Tory government.

I realize that there is a difference between talking about the death of a party, and its transformation, and people may be doing the latter not the former. But I don't see why one would think that the GOP is on its knees. These people are very tough and very nasty and they will keep coming - it is a myth (as with Tory Britain) that they will die out with demographics.

those of you pining for the return of Jeb Bush: it ain't gonna happen. No one talks about him here. Among certain sectors, GEORGE is more popular than Jeb.

pinefox - No one thinks the GOP will disintegrate as a party.

It's not long since a lot of people were close to panicking

perhaps you didn't notice, but i never panicked and was quite sure that the polls would return to obama's favor

well granted Bradley was a long time ago.

x-post

That Time/CNN poll:

MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48

YES

ugh, it's fine to worry about obama underperforming where he's polling strong, but the "bradley effect" premise that racists (i.e. people who won't vote for obama based on race) wouldn't tell a pollster over the phone some secondary reason why they oppose obama, but would instead declare their support for him -- why? because of the huge social pressure an anonymous pollster phone call exerts on him? highly fucking unlikely.

yeah I never "panicked" either - I was definitely in the "everybody chill out, I GOT THIS.jpg" category.

And the GOP isn't going away as a party (lolz) its just that they're going to have to reconstitute/redesign themselves. The coalition that had been propelling and controlling the party from at least the late 70s on has now fractured irrevocably - the neocons/aggro foreign policy guys, the big business plutocrats, and the fundie Xtians all completely hate each other now, and their power base has evaporated.

in sum: lol britishes

(x-posts_

That Time/CNN poll:

MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48

YES

― Z S, Wednesday, October 1, 2008 4:31 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark

whooooooo!!!

this is cuz i have phone banked. everyone thank me~~~

thank you!

Yay, only bankers we can trust right now! ;-)

good job!

ugh, it's fine to worry about obama underperforming where he's polling strong, but the "bradley effect" premise that racists (i.e. people who won't vote for obama based on race) wouldn't tell a pollster over the phone some secondary reason why they oppose obama, but would instead declare their support for him -- why? because of the huge social pressure an anonymous pollster phone call exerts on him? highly fucking unlikely.

― playing the abortion card (elmo argonaut), Wednesday, October 1, 2008 11:32 AM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

its gross but it doesnt make it any less true.

what is more likely is that obama will have enough support from "unlikely voters" to make the bradley effect question moot

just don't get overconfident. Must first learn to stand, then learn to fly.

My Rosh haShana spent with the Orthodox Jews of Philadelphia:

The few Obama supporters in the Ortho community this weekend have suddenly become outspoken and the majority of Orthos (McCain supporters) have become awfully quiet at the table. Talk of politics are forbidden at some of meals I've attended, and where a few months ago Republicans were calling me an Arab-lover for being pro-Obama, now they are just silent and really, really angry.

Anecdotal, but take from it what you will. :)

at least they didn't tell you that Obama's a secret muslim

Not this weekend. But a few months ago they did.

OBAMA OSAMA
HUMM
ARE THEY BROTHERS

Drudge is pumping the Gallup daily with a 4-pt O lead because it's the closest poll he can find

do they really use the phrase "arab-lover"????

There was actually a study lately (linked on 538?) which argued that the Bradley effect seems to be dying out in recent years. A good thing.

Bradley effect old racists seem to be dying out in recent years

hallelujah

that 538 post: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

if there is a bradley effect, i think it's largely going to be in urban areas of blue states obama doesn't have to worry about. the real question is how big a win he can pull in African American-heavy border South states like VA, NC and FL.

i mean, people have been willing to be pretty upfront about race in this election

guys, BRADLEY != OBAMA

I liked Bradley, but Bradley made even Gray Davis seem lively.

i've been called arab-lover on a number of occasions. generally because i'm unwilling to admit that all arabs are lying murderers.

guys, BRADLEY != OBAMA

we're not talking about Bradley, we're talking about the much-discussed "Bradley effect," which most of us think doesn't exist (anymore)

i just love arabs! what can i say, i'm an arab lover.

aw admit you think they're all cute and cuddly!

x-post

I'm not denying the Bradley effect existed, but Bradley barely lost, and part of that was because he was Bradley, not because he was black.

furthermore, what Bradley lacked then, Obama doesn't lack today. Two totally different elections, two different people, two different times. It's referential at best, but not something to even think about re: this election IMHO

I certainly don't hate arabs, but by non-Orthodox standards I have pretty moderate to rightwing views on things like Israel. like i believe Jerusalem should remain entirely under the control of Israel. But in the ultra-Ortho community, if you don't believe arabs are inherently evil, you probably wanna have their babies.

how do their babies taste?

yummies?

I would have all these arab babies

Mackro, no one who discusses the potential impact of "the Bradley effect" (almost 50,000 google hits) is comparing Obama to Bradley

http://www.google.com/search2001/search?hl=en&q=%22sarah+palin%22&btnG=Google+Search