2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

not destroyed, mostly just trimmed, but it always grows back, scratchier than before

Jeb Bush v Obama in 2012 would be epic

Dubya's only gonna look worse as the year's go on, come on now. Both Bush's were fairly large failures (and what's Jeb gonna do, propose going to war with Iraq for a THIRD time?)

years

do not underestimate the American love of a comeback

John Travolta, yes. Jeb Bush, no.

thats what they said about nixon

I bet Don Wiener's balls Jeb Bush will not successfully run for president, if he runs at all

Nixon's daddy and brother were not two of the most widely reviled failed presidents of the previous two generations

it looks like the only two people raise their hands: the old guy who's wife pushes his hand down and then raises it again for Obama... and the Fox News correspondent (it's sort of off-camera, but you can tell it's him) LOLOLOLOLL!!!

― flyover statesman (will), Wednesday, October 1, 2008 3:55 PM (51 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

ok i didn't notice the fox news correspondent raised his hand for mccain, roffle

Unlike in ‘64, McCain’s nomination was not the product of a bitter intra-party battle that started to change the character of the GOP but was instead an almost default acquiescence to the heir apparent out of a lack of enthusiasm for the alternatives.

Not sure I buy this? It's the dissatisfaction with McCain (and the splits within the party he's opening with missives like "Georgetown cocktail party conservatives") that's changing the character of the party, but it's changing nonetheless and I think we might be dealing with a different GOP in 2012.

GOP as we know it is done.

which was fairly clear during the primaries

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/images/2008/10/01/photo0058.jpg

lol Texans

http://bagnewsnotes.typepad.com/bagnews/images/Ron-Paul.jpg

this has probably been posted before but I don't care

crying_in_the_elks_lodge.jpg

i think once this is all over we need an epic IMAGES ONLY election wrap-up thread

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/more-data-shows-obama-battleground-strength/

9 pt lead in VA?! wtf

I increasingly think we're looking at a real electoral blowout, but closet racism may prevent that and make it way closer than polls suggest.

http://media.tumblr.com/XMWWE4LdIejocim51IaX6iLco1_500.png

he's been up 6 (twice) and 8 points in VA polls taken in the last 2 weeks

way to go Missouri!! believe -> achieve

closet racism may prevent that and make it way closer than polls suggest.

shakey otm

shades of Bradley CA gubernatorial run (god I wish he had won. fucking Pete Wilson)

(er Deukmajian! they blur together for me)

"closet racism may prevent that and make it way closer than polls suggest"

I find this highly unlikely.

People are actually talking about an Edith Bunker effect.

I thought she was dead.

yah that shits been debunked - obama outperformed the polls in the primaries

It's nice that you people are happy today. But what if in 2 weeks' time the poll direction is the other way? It's not long since a lot of people were close to panicking.

It is odd, the way people talk about 'GOP split / GOP over' etc. Aren't these conservative parties among the most resilient forces in world politics? Not that long ago people here in the UK were talking about the strange death of Tory Britain. Now people are talking about the death of the Labour Party, and just about everyone believes we will have a Tory government.

I realize that there is a difference between talking about the death of a party, and its transformation, and people may be doing the latter not the former. But I don't see why one would think that the GOP is on its knees. These people are very tough and very nasty and they will keep coming - it is a myth (as with Tory Britain) that they will die out with demographics.

those of you pining for the return of Jeb Bush: it ain't gonna happen. No one talks about him here. Among certain sectors, GEORGE is more popular than Jeb.

pinefox - No one thinks the GOP will disintegrate as a party.

It's not long since a lot of people were close to panicking

perhaps you didn't notice, but i never panicked and was quite sure that the polls would return to obama's favor

well granted Bradley was a long time ago.

x-post

That Time/CNN poll:

MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48

YES

ugh, it's fine to worry about obama underperforming where he's polling strong, but the "bradley effect" premise that racists (i.e. people who won't vote for obama based on race) wouldn't tell a pollster over the phone some secondary reason why they oppose obama, but would instead declare their support for him -- why? because of the huge social pressure an anonymous pollster phone call exerts on him? highly fucking unlikely.

yeah I never "panicked" either - I was definitely in the "everybody chill out, I GOT THIS.jpg" category.

And the GOP isn't going away as a party (lolz) its just that they're going to have to reconstitute/redesign themselves. The coalition that had been propelling and controlling the party from at least the late 70s on has now fractured irrevocably - the neocons/aggro foreign policy guys, the big business plutocrats, and the fundie Xtians all completely hate each other now, and their power base has evaporated.

in sum: lol britishes

(x-posts_

That Time/CNN poll:

MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48

YES

― Z S, Wednesday, October 1, 2008 4:31 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark

whooooooo!!!

this is cuz i have phone banked. everyone thank me~~~

thank you!

Yay, only bankers we can trust right now! ;-)

good job!

ugh, it's fine to worry about obama underperforming where he's polling strong, but the "bradley effect" premise that racists (i.e. people who won't vote for obama based on race) wouldn't tell a pollster over the phone some secondary reason why they oppose obama, but would instead declare their support for him -- why? because of the huge social pressure an anonymous pollster phone call exerts on him? highly fucking unlikely.

― playing the abortion card (elmo argonaut), Wednesday, October 1, 2008 11:32 AM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

its gross but it doesnt make it any less true.

what is more likely is that obama will have enough support from "unlikely voters" to make the bradley effect question moot

just don't get overconfident. Must first learn to stand, then learn to fly.

My Rosh haShana spent with the Orthodox Jews of Philadelphia:

The few Obama supporters in the Ortho community this weekend have suddenly become outspoken and the majority of Orthos (McCain supporters) have become awfully quiet at the table. Talk of politics are forbidden at some of meals I've attended, and where a few months ago Republicans were calling me an Arab-lover for being pro-Obama, now they are just silent and really, really angry.

Anecdotal, but take from it what you will. :)

at least they didn't tell you that Obama's a secret muslim