Trump, May 2017: 100 days of [unintelligible]

Rumblings on the purported religious liberty EO to come today are that the religious right are let down if not deeply pissed off.

― Ned Raggett, Thursday, May 4, 2017 8:39 AM (thirty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if the religious right doesn't even like it, why even issue the order at all? Just seems like a recipe for more protests and another court defeat

then again, why anything is a fairly futile question at this point.

the issue is the senate right?

Saw one story that claims the EO is all about making it easier for Trump to fundraise in churches.

acc to NPR this morning the Johnson Rule is hardly ever enforced vs churches

Basic breakdown of what happens next re AHCA

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/04/politics/republicans-health-care-donald-trump/index.html

Point 5 seems like the key one:

5. The Senate changes it drastically: Senate Republicans have already expressed concern with the end of Medicaid expansion by 2020 -- which is in the House bill -- and it's hard for me to imagine some of the more moderate elements in the chamber will be happy about the pre-existing condition provisions. If the Senate radically alters the bill, which I think is more likely than not, it will have to a) go to a conference committee, and if that committee can report out a deal, then it has to b) be re-voted on by the House. If the bill is moved to the center by Senate Republicans, is there any certainty that the conservative Freedom Caucus will go along with it?

if Trump is personally able to grift a bunch of mega-churches that would be sort of funny i guess

i mean, more so than he already has

Comments from figures like Ryan Anderson, Vander Plaats, et al are saying things like 'fig leaf,' 'weak,' 'symbolic' -- commentators like Douthat are saying the Johnson Amendment's never been a priority among religious leaders he's interviewed over the years, etc. In combination with the optics of AHCA as it stands, Trump will win the conversation of the day but please absolutely nobody.

Would anyone care to offer a quick elucidatory summary of how the House was suddenly able to get their shit together re: taking a tire iron to ACA's kneecaps?

iirc

Paul Ryan rn: Let's just do it and be legends, man

— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) May 4, 2017

bitter lol

I mean, per the Senate point above -- there's a sense here that they clearly had to deliver something no matter what, and that by shifting it off to the Senate they can pretty much go 'Not our problem! You figure it out' while still going 'See, we did a thing.' I assume Ryan's two main motivations were simple -- get the ground laid for his beloved tax cuts, demonstrate to his caucus and Trump that he can 'deliver.' Everything else is secondary. Combine that with leadership pressure functioning as it always does in a situation like this and there ya go.

I mean I can already tell ya that Portman in the Senate -- a close Kasich ally and all -- is going to look at the Medicaid changes and go 'yeah right.' Add in Collins and a few more and per the CNN paragraph, a revised bill is a certainty, and that gets punted back to the House eventually.

now it's personal

Andy Slavitt‏
@ASlavitt
ALERT: If you get your benefits at work, Trumpcare bill being voted on today snuck in something to allow them to be gutted & capped.

Under the House bill, large employers could choose the benefit requirements from any state—including those that are allowed to lower their benchmarks under a waiver, health analysts said. By choosing a waiver state, employers looking to lower their costs could impose lifetime limits and eliminate the out-of-pocket cost cap from their plans under the GOP legislation.

A company wouldn’t have to do business in a state to choose that state’s benefits level, analysts said. The company could just choose a state to match no matter where it is based.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/little-noted-provision-of-gop-health-bill-could-alter-employer-plans-1493890203

fun

Some more about what happens in the Senate:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/if-house-passes-gop-health-care-bill-a-steeper-climb-awaits-in-the-senate/2017/05/04/26a901da-30bd-11e7-8674-437ddb6e813e_story.html?utm_term=.98b2695c37ca

The House measure’s original version, introduced in March by Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), already contained elements at risk of being struck out in the Senate under budget reconciliation rules that allow tax and spending changes but not broader policy changes.

That original proposal initially left many of the ACA’s insurance regulations alone — with the goal of ensuring it would pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian, a nonpartisan officer of the Senate who decides on what may go in a reconciliation bill — but not all of them.

The version of the bill the House plans to vote on Thursday would undercut the ACA’s insurance regulations even more, by giving states a path to opt out of federal requirements for insurers to cover certain “essential” health benefits — and to allow them to charge sick people the same premiums as healthy people.

The GOP bill would allow insurers to charge older Americans five times what they charge younger people, as opposed to three times as much under current law. And it would enable insurers to hike premiums by 30 percent for people who don’t remain continuously covered. Health policy experts, including conservative ones, have noted that the parliamentarian may decide those provisions need to be stripped out.

Additionally, members of the House will vote on their bill before they receive a score from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which would measure how much the legislation would cost and how many people stand to lose coverage under it. Senate budget rules require a CBO score that proves the legislation will not increase the deficit after 10 years. The Senate parliamentarian can’t even start reviewing the AHCA without a score from the CBO, and getting that is expected to take several weeks.

So it's not like Trump's signing anything tomorrow after a sudden Senate vote. And right now I'm willing to bet we're actually seeing the high point of this overall effort.

fucking monsters! fuck them all and the monsters that bore them as well

http://✧✧✧.c✧✧.com/2017/05/04/politics/trump-health-care-latest?lf-content=194658442:lb-post-d5d3bf8663d70a4ae50af3a34d1cb✧✧✧@livef✧✧✧.c✧✧&hubRefSrc=permalink

Rep. Chris Collins said his party is confident that "everyone's made up their minds" on the health care bill.

"I think everyone’s got confidence now," he told CNN. "It’ll pass, and I think by two votes."
He added that Democrats are wrong if they believe they'll be able to take back majority in the House because of the health care bill.

"We’re going to run against Nancy Pelosi in 2018," he said. "We’ll remind people in 2018, what’s the rhetorical question, do you really want Nancy Pelosi back as speaker of the House?"

He also credited Trump for the bill, saying "this was Donald J. Trump the negotiator getting it done."

"What finally got this over the line was the President," Collins added.

not sure what happened to the link, but it was one of the live updates at cnn.com

The GOP bill would allow insurers to charge older Americans five times what they charge younger people, as opposed to three times as much under current law.

Um. Aren't these older Americans the ones they rely on for votes?

that was my first thought as well

AARP is already getting ads going on said subject, I gather.

Noticed this comment separately just now but it's a nice corrective to Collins's hogwash:

I watched this bill pretty closely. Take my word on this:

Patrick McHenry did 1,000% more to get AHCA passed than Donald Trump.

— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) May 4, 2017

(And also underscores that it's notable that aside from some phone calls the White House has been sitting this out in comparison -- no stories of Steve Bannon trying to act as enforcer. Which tells me they've figured out that if blowback is that bad they can shift blame very easily.)

Meantime, the state of the caucus:

Martha McSally stood up in GOP conference meeting and said let's get this "fucking thing" done.

Yes, direct quote — per members and aides.

— Erica Werner (@ericawerner) May 4, 2017

Joe Wilson of "You lie!" fame acknowledges that "I haven't read the word-by-word" of the legislation but says he's read a "brief" on it

— Erica Werner (@ericawerner) May 4, 2017

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/04/gop-congressman-i-dont-think-any-individual-has-read-health-bill.html

do be fair none of them read anything which is why there's that stunt policy every few years about not allowing anything to the floor longer than a sheet of paper

(And also underscores that it's notable that aside from some phone calls the White House has been sitting this out in comparison -- no stories of Steve Bannon trying to act as enforcer. Which tells me they've figured out that if blowback is that bad they can shift blame very easily.)

― Ned Raggett,

Some congressman this morning said the "process" worked this time because the president "sat this one out."

they sure shat this one out :(

Would anyone care to offer a quick elucidatory summary of how the House was suddenly able to get their shit together re: taking a tire iron to ACA's kneecaps?

― Jigsaw Pizzle (Old Lunch)

moderates cave. that's why they're moderates. hardliners don't. that's why they're hardliners. the congress has finally figured out that the key to getting anything passed is giving the fc everything they ask for and nobody anything else.

josh marshall's Iron Law of Republican Politics: the ‘GOP moderates’ will always cave

I guess 'perpetual capitulation' sort of resembles a principle.

sucks there's all this health and financial insecurity but hey think of all the taxes congress is saving the wealthy. can you begin to imagine what they've been through these past eight years?

Let's see how long the wealthy stay wealthy when the money consumers would've used on goods and services are instead funneled directly into paying off $8 million medical bills.

Yeah, who am I kidding, they'll continue to be insufficiently inconvenienced by the slowly-dying poors.

My congressman, a fucking little shit.

“Some of my concerns have been addressed, but there are others,” he said, walking out of a closed-door meeting in the Capitol basement.

Curbelo said he was largely convinced by Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), who rolled out a new amendment yesterday that allocates an additional $8 billion dollars over five years for states that opt out of cost protections for people with pre-existing conditions.

“No matter where someone ends up in the health care states, even if they are in one of these opt-out states and they haven’t kept continuous coverage, there’s going to be support for him. That’s what the Upton amendment kind of cures. That was important for me,” he said.

the poor will all be healed by getting off their lazy butts and applying for all the millions of jobs that are about to trickle down from the coming tax cut any day now

"kind of cures" are all that's gonna be available to anyone after this abomination

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/04/politics/health-care-vote/index.html

The mood among House Republicans is jubilant Thursday morning as they prepare to vote for their bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

The first test vote easily passed along party lines, with a final vote on the bill expected in the 1 p.m. ET hour on the legislation, would dismantle the pillars of the Affordable Care Act and make sweeping changes to the nation's health care system.

The final vote will be very close, but many Republicans were already in a celebratory mode in a morning meeting in the House basement. The theme song to "Rocky" played as members filed in.

yes, i remember that moment in rocky where he fought and fought and then died because he couldn't afford health insurance

Let's see how long the wealthy stay wealthy when the money consumers would've used on goods and services *poured into guns in ammo as directed by NRA* are instead funneled directly into paying off $8 million medical bills *pointed at them*. xpost and fixed.

i would love it if sylvester stallone appeared and punched them in the face

lol almost fixed, but words are hard.

well he got cancer in Creed but there were no death panels

Kate Upton could have written a better amendment

will the senate pass this tax cut through reconciliation, or will mcconnell nuke the legislation filibuster? i can't wait to find out : )

a glowing NYT story published yesterday claimed as evidence of Senate bipartisanship that members of both parties overwhelmingly want to keep the legislation filibuster. But eh

And here's a press release explaining Ros Lehtnen's no vote.

that makes too much moral sense for a typical republican i'd bet though. to think the TEA party 'took back america' in 2010 crying foul about "passing the bill to find out what's in it". if only more of these people were capable of shame

Obviously nobody knows anything anymore, but "Donald Trump and the GOP took trillions of dollars from their voters and gave them to their donors" is a hell of a message

I should note that my boy Curbelo is one of three reps in South Florida w/ more people covered under ACA exchanges than any other.

Meantime, more on the religious order EO front -- when you've got the Alliance Defending Freedom crew complaining about it...

http://www.adfmedia.org/News/PRDetail/10252

During his campaign, President Trump stated that the first priority of his administration would be to preserve and protect religious liberty. In speeches, he said the Little Sisters of the Poor and other people of faith will always have their religious liberty protected on his watch and will not have to face bullying from the government because of their religious beliefs. Religious voters took him at his word, giving the president a mandate to affirm and protect Americans’ first freedom.

The current outline of the Religious Liberty Executive Order released by White House officials recalls those campaign promises but leaves them unfulfilled.

I have yet to see any 'typical' religious right activist type of the sort I've noticed over the years give any real praise to this at all, and mostly as noted it's either disappointment or just outright scorn.