Hall of Fame Ballot 2017

oops, wrong thread

steven marcus, new york newsday

https://twitter.com/Sean_Rosales/status/809162740556300288

52 ballots so far.

1. Raines and Bagwell are going in. They're marching in lockstep, 50 out of 52 both.

2. Right now I-Rod is ahead of Vlad 80% to 71%. I don't know if there's still a late-vote = more-traditional component to the voting--all ballots are public now, right, which would eliminate that. If it is still there, I would expect that gap to narrow and that they'll both be close.

3. Hoffman's at 75%, so I'd say doubtful.

4. Clemens and Bonds are both at 68%--if not this year, maybe they are going to make it before their ten years are up.

5. Edgar and Mussina are doing pretty well at 64%.

Edgar should be doing better!

I agree--he should be in--but he hasn't cracked 45% yet, so if time doesn't run out on him (two more tries after this year, I think), that indicates he may get in at the wire.

The SABR-friendly writers always publicize their ballots first, so Edgar and Mussina will drop a lot. Clemens and Bonds in the upper 60's is surprising though!

126 ballots public, and Clemens and Bonds are at 77%. Maybe not this year, but pretty clearly they are going in.

Love Vlad of course, but him getting into the HoF before Mussina, Edgar and Walker is a bit much.

Very different players, but I might put him on par with Walker. Walker does better on the JAWS scale by 10+ WAR, but I think that's distorted a little bit by his years in Colorado and Guerrero's early retirement. Their years in Montreal are hard to compare--Vlad was there during the offensive boom, whereas Walker caught just the beginning--but for what it's worth:

Guerrero -- 1004 games, .323/.390/.588, 234 HR, 148 OPS+, 5.8 WAR/650 PA
Walker -- 674 games, .281/.357/.483, 99 HR, 128 OPS+, 5.6 WAR/650 PA

Again, hard to compare. Walker was just getting started when he left, Vlad had his greatest years there.

wasn't sure vlad was ever gonna get in, surprised he could be a first ballot guy

always thought walker was a hof player, vlad too def

looks like raines is going to slide in easily and here i was worried he wouldn't crack through in the end.

i have a little hope for larry walker even though he's only got three years after this one. i feel like he could be the next cause célèbre for a lot of the writers. out of the batters on the ballot, he seems to be the one who needs the most help and who would deserve it. can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade.

As a Jays fan, I find it puzzling that McGriff is still hanging around on the ballot and Delgado didn't even last a year. Slightly different eras, I know. But to me, McGriff just treaded water after the age of 30, whereas Delgado was fairly productive right till he was 36 (and then left the game quickly). And even accounting for era, McGriff didn't have a season as awesome as Delgado's 2000 (or maybe his 2003, too). I don't ever recall any kind of PED suspicion with Delgado, so I don't know why he had such little support.

In Florida, early voting trends narrowly favor Clinton

What changed with Bonds and Clemens? Was it just a matter of getting through the backlog of other deserving candidates?

Delighted getting in

Selig

https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/805561827434168320

^others basically say the same but Slusser was on the front of the discussion

can't see the writers getting energized over edgar or kent or mcgriff or the PED brigade

i'm not sure how many years edgar has left, but i've seen writers energized by the fact that his numbers are significantly better than david ortiz's

plus if trevor hoffman gets in, there's even less of a rationale for excluding designated hitters

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1D20NLVIAAVw64.jpg:small

say what you want about selig/steroids/etc -- the main issue is clown voters

It is funny because Vlad was actually Gold Glove good in 1998, and an absolute defensive disaster the rest of the career. How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career? What clicked in Vlad's brain that year?

How many players have this one excellent defensive season while being average/plain bad the rest of their career?

Haven't checked Jeter numbers; he had an anomalously good D-metrics year in 2012, I think?

Jay Jaffe on Vlad's case

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/13/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-vladimir-guerrero

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C1WdaGzUQAEevGB.jpg

there are a lot of guys getting a good percentage this year. really surprised by Bonds and Clemens both still hovering around 70% and surprised to see how Mussina has both gained and lost a decent number of votes from returning voters (i'm assuming it has something to do w/Raines seeing a huge jump and people finally deciding to cast their votes for the PED suspects, Vlad, and I-Rod.)

next year i'm gonna guess Edgar gets in, along w/maybe one of the current top five who may miss out? Chipper is a shoo-in, Thome seems like a probable near-miss but he shouldn't be.

still think Larry Walker has a shot at a significant groundswell of support but i'm probably overestimating it.

thome's in, no prob

i trust the voters to do the right thing more than I did a few years ago but i'm not betting on it. i hope you're right! he was really, really well-liked and also HI I'M JIM THO

the PED suspects, Vlad

Didn't know that. I always thought Guerrero was like Griffey, completely free of suspicion.

don't think that's what he meant

Ah, the serial comma...(I-Rod is a PED suspect, though, which is what threw me.)

yeah but he's like Bagwell or Piazza as opposed to Clemens or Bonds or McGwire.

I thought there was some legitimate suspicion with him? he never really looked the part

didn't even notice posada was on the ballot this year, shocked he might be eliminated. i figured he had a good chance of getting in eventually, and i think he probably deserves it, but i guess i'm going to spend the rest of my days crusading for people to adjust their standards for catchers

posada's a hall of very good for me

and we all know my thoughts on catchers

very few of the names mentioned here really seem "all-time" to me tbrr

bonds, clemens, manny. that's it for me

seem vs the evidence, tho

i think we have lived in a time of viewing great players as mere mortals, very often.

(xpost) I think even a small-hall ballot ought to include Bagwell and I-Rod.

there are 11 guys i'd vote for (bagwell, bonds, clemens, vlad, martinez, mussina, raines, ramirez, rodriguez, schilling, walker), and i'd think about throwing a vote to kent, mcgriff, sheffield, and sosa after awhile. hoffman, posada, smith, and wagner...idk. i'm agnostic on closers and posada was good but not THAT good.

no fucking closers except rivera, very easy rule

that should be in the BBWAA rules

Held back by his base running and defensive deficiencies, his 42.7 career WAR ranks 18th all-time—respectable, but 10 wins below the average Hall of Famer and ahead of just four of the 14 enshrined, including Roy Campanella, whose career was shortened by the color line. Posada looks better on the basis of his 32.7 peak score, which ranks 16th but is just 1.5 wins below the standard and is ahead of six enshrined catchers, only one of whom (Gabby Hartnett) was elected by the BBWAA. Posada is also 16th in JAWS, 6.7 points below the standard and ahead of just four enshrined catchers, including the BBWAA-elected Campanella. Given that Posada's Monitor score is modest, his postseason numbers (.248/.358/.387) lackluster and his framing numbers awful, I just don't see enough to overturn that JAWS verdict. Posada is not even the best Yankees catcher outside the Hall: Thurman Munson (45.9/37.0/41.5) ranks 12th on JAWS and is above the peak standard despite a career cut short after 10 1/2 seasons due to his death.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/12/16/jaws-2017-hall-of-fame-ballot-jorge-posada

i guess mauer should retire now -- he has the stats to get in as a catcher, but not as a first baseman

no fucking closers except rivera, very easy rule

Not at all saying they will, but another decade of Kimbrel and/or Chapman doing what they do now would be good enough for me.

closers tend to get elected because saves are a made-up stat they can collect pretty easily and the heightened drama of getting the final out. not gonna deny that these are mostly good pitchers but oftentimes they're not really great or even very good. chapman is pretty impressive, kimbrel less so, but idk. these guys aren't much better than andrew miller or betances or jansen. probably should just have a special wing of the hall for guys who whined that they didn't want to face more than three batters at a time and only in the 9th inning please.

the best failed starters in baseball!

he did hit 434 homers and stole 152 bases, so it's not like he was *only* defense

and yeah it was a time of many dingers, but he's ahead of both piazza and ripken. decent counting stats considering the shape of his career

i'd probably put Edmonds in ahead of Jones but i think both should be in there tbh. i don't anticipate either getting in unless there's some miracle via the vet committee.

I think Walker will get in one day, speaking of underrated OFers. i think the vets will put him in eventually.

FG on andruw

are we resigned to ortiz getting in without much debate? lower WAR than jim rice, who i figured he'd spend his candidacy being compared to before he went and had his best season since 07

Likely behind the paywall, but James's Andruw piece from three years ago:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/andruw/?AuthorId=3&pg=6&F_All=y

I have done the best I could to place Jones in the "right" position as a defensive player, and, as I said, I have confidence that my system is generally right on a certain level. But I can’t prove that those who would give more weight to his defense are absolutely wrong, just as I don’t believe that they can prove that they’re right. But based on my understanding of the record, Jones’ fielding

a) Was only truly outstanding through 2002; after that his Gold Gloves were mostly just reputation, and

b) Was not of substantial enough value that we should consider him an all-time great player.

I would put Andruw in a class with Vada Pinson, Cesar Cedeno, Fred Lynn and perhaps a few others. Jimmy Wynn and Dale Murphy. These men, all center fielders, were all tremendous players when they were young--such tremendous players that they didn’t need to develop in order to become Hall of Famers; they merely needed to sustain their level of performance for a reasonably full career. But, for whatever reason, they weren’t able to do that, and fell short of a Hall of Fame standard.

I think he's revised his opinion a little upwards--he posted something yesterday that put Andruw as a B-level HOF'er, whereas Edmonds fell into the C category--but I'm not sure if he's in favor of induction yet.

For me, if you dominate your position for ten straight years then you have a strong HOF argument. So I think Edmonds has been underrated.

On one hand I agree with clem about Andruw Jones but OTOH the age think seems arbitrary. Roy Halladay also had ten great years and literally nothing else but most of us think he's a clear HOFer. However Jones got fat and arguably wasted his talent whereas Halladay got injured which was a kind of fluke and not his fault, should this matter? My gut feeling is that it should, but again I'm not sure.

age thing, not think

i have absolutely no problem with david ortiz going into the hall of fame

Hope Edgar gets there first, but I think Ortiz is automatic at this point.

Some cool pics of I-Rod visiting Puerto Rico today and tonight going around on the internet I saw on a baseball group on Facebook. He visited a children's hospital and then was a guest at the team he played winter ball back on.

Is there a chance for Scott Rolen to get in? or is he going to Edmondsed?

I think he's headed for a Tim Raines-like extended stay on the ballot, but because things are moving more and more in a sabermetric direction, he will get in towards the end of his 10 years.

he's gonna have trouble getting 5% though, isn't he? the ballot is still crowded