Mourning in America - Trump Year One: November '16 to

http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/11/how-the-vote-broke-in-historical-perspective/508352/

I work in the election industry—on the counting side, not the political side. When I went to sleep on election night, Trump’s lead was a million votes and climbing. This was not my preferred outcome, but I accepted the selection of the people—only it wasn’t, as it turns out.

My calculation today gives Clinton a 2.5 million vote margin when everything is counted. (Vote-by-mail states count slowly—more paper handling for mail-ins. California has three million uncounted ballots, one million in LA County (3 to 1 for Clinton) and another half-million in San Diego County (3 to 2 for Clinton).) She may also pick up more votes in other vote-by-mail states out west—think Oregon, Washington, Colorado.

...

The narrative on election night was all how Clinton turned victory to defeat, her campaign overconfident, her voters staying home, and her herself unable to best perhaps the least capable candidate ever nominated by a major party.

The numbers in Florida and California just do not support that evaluation. In both places, turnout was up over 8 percent. She pulled a 930K vote lead in counties covering 58 percent of the state’s voters, counties where Obama ran up a 770K margin that enabled him to win a 70K victory in 2012. Her lead failed because Trump himself ran up a million vote margin in the remaining rural counties, beating Romney’s numbers by 350K. Hilary lost Florida, but she and Trump engaged the voters.

In California, she will nearly double Trump's tally, and out-poll Obama (the 2008 and 2012 version) by about three percentage points. She will receive nine million plus votes in California. These are the votes pushing her national total two million and more votes past that of the President-elect.

She will not be inaugurated two months hence, not in virtue of a pitiful campaign. She wasn’t perfect, and sometimes not very good, but she received support from enough of the republic to win the office in any universe not governed by an 18th century compromise with the slave-owning aristocrats of the Carolinas and Virginia.

She has 2.5 million more votes than the person who will be inaugurated. That is not a close margin.

This is what a democratic crisis looks like.

i think that's right and the "when you're famous they let you" sounded close enough to establishing consent that ppl who wanted an excuse to dismiss it as more msm hysteria had one

yeah I guess I was in the "this is gross but he's probably right" camp, we've all heard groupie stories and Trump seems like the type willing to do 'favors' to anyone in the biz willing to sleep with him, then a bunch of women came up and said uh no, what he's doing is textbook sexual assault and we didn't consent to it

the fact that so many people jumped out to say "all these women are liars" is the worst part of this, IMO. and we wonder why sexual assault goes unreported so often.

I figure that people who aligned with trump politically and emotionally either aligned well with trump's misogyny, too, or else rationalized it as not nearly bad enough to overcome their stronger feelings of approval for and kinship with him (e.g. their feeling threatened by Muslims / Mexicans / gay marriage / trade deals / etc.)

at least thru '60s most women felt obligated to follow their husbands' lead; not an apparent big change perhaps, aside from less universal coupling

― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, November 21, 2016 2:26 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

er... you want to walk that back? i don't like my republican family members any more than anybody else, but women are more than capable of being republicans on their own two feet and denying them any agency in their votes isn't cool.

yeah, someone on fb posted the other day showing that a California voter had some pathetically small percentage of influence compared to a voter in Wyoming.

I work in the election industry—on the counting side, not the political side. When I went to sleep on election night, Trump’s lead was a million votes and climbing. This was not my preferred outcome, but I accepted the selection of the people—only it wasn’t, as it turns out.

kinda a bad look to start an article with this sort of claim of authority when it was clear from pretty early in the night that even if hillary were going to lose the EC she was going to win the popular vote. but yes, the electoral college is bad

that's not an article, k3v

is there anyone here who likes the way votes are distributed in the electoral college?

like the filibuster, people only like the electoral college when it directly benefits their side

few here are from Wyoming or Alaska. but then, few people are from there period.

people's opinions on the EC seem to be outcome-dependent. since it tends to advantage white rural voters, democrats don't like it and republicans do

xp shakey otm

Doc C, of course, i just meant that eg married couples probably more likely to vote the same way than not.

When was the last time it benefited the "left"?

(didn't mean a matter of them slavishly following their mate) xp

insofar as the "left" has always been urban = never

xp

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/11/donald-trump-election-hillary-clinton-election-night-inequality-republicans-trumpism/

― jason waterfalls (gbx), Friday, November 18, 2016 12:44 PM (three days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

^^ glad to see this is already here, i thought it was excellent. ugly but still hopeful.

i thought this was good too, and shorter :)

https://medium.com/@rortybomb/preparing-for-the-worst-how-conservatives-will-govern-in-2017-3889bcb4bb48#.h6t914p57

They aren’t ready with a replacement for Obamacare. They aren’t ready for the heat of privatizing Medicare, or weakening Medicaid. There are constituencies for both, and town halls can be flooded and people organized. Those who desperately wanted a change towards economic security are going to be surprised that the factories aren’t coming back and that they signed up for a libertarian kleptocracy instead. But we should also be clear on the challenges of their policy agenda, and that the cracks won’t appear by themselves.

i'm seeing that one of Ryan/Trump's first plans out the gate is rescinding obama's overtime rules that cover anyone making less than $47k. so several million people just voted to cut their own pay.

god americans are so dumb

So Clinton's majority was, according to the analysis above, decently sized but excessively clustered in already-blue states and regions.

Urban/coastal/blue-state liberals in wanting to be in cities/near coasts/predominantly liberal areas shockah!

otoh that will be a relief to many non-profits and small businesses.

a significant number of arts non-profits were/are having to consider significant changes because of those laws and the fact that a lot of work in the arts isn't the standard 5 days a week/8 hrs a day, and that it is seasonal/temporary.

kris kobach commits rookie mistake, gets caught in front of cameras with an important paper showing:

https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/800806633865674752

and what's on the paper is bad.

i kinda feel that may have been intentional - a dog whistle to the alt-right

i'm trying not to let 'chess game psyops' type ideas take up too much brainspace tbh

few here are from Wyoming or Alaska. but then, few people are from there period.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, November 21, 2016 8:44 PM (twenty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Was it those 2 states that came up on University Challenge tonight as having less population than Leeds but greater size than the UK. I think it was definitely Wyoming and one other.

3d election map!

http://metrocosm.com/election-2016-map-3d/

meanwhile, in north carolina:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2016/11/21/pat_mccrory_is_trying_to_steal_the_north_carolina_governorship.html

the Mike Conczal piece goole linked is great. one of my favourite writers

3d election map!

http://metrocosm.com/election-2016-map-3d/

― goole, Monday, November 21, 2016 4:29 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

3d is cool but the cartograms mentioned are just so meaningless to me, idgi

http://i1.wp.com/metrocosm.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/election-2016-cartogram-purple.png
http://i0.wp.com/metrocosm.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/538-hexagon-cartogram.png

538 had a bunch of other stupid visualizations too. idk maybe they are extremely useful to other people but i really don't have a hard time looking at a regular map and knowing that some states/counties are more populous than others

(obv the warped one on the left is what im talking about among the first two)

some states are hard to see on a regular map because they are very small

i was talking with my gf the other night about how every country pays so much attention to the USA and we pay absolutely no attention to any of them. this quote in the times in a piece about 'voters that didn't vote and don't regret it in milwaukee' threw me for a loop:

As for Mrs. Clinton, “other countries probably wouldn’t have respected us because we had a woman running the country,” he said.

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/eca5b3f03be168c6b3e6ec526067fd90ae7bcfe3/r=x408&c=540x405/local/-/media/USATODAY/GenericImages/2013/04/08/gty-2628488-4_3.jpg

(obv the warped one on the left is what im talking about among the first two)

― marcos, Monday, November 21, 2016 4:38 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

baahh i mean right not left

John Manoogian III, who did that great chart categorizing cognitive biases, design this election map that I like better:

https://medium.com/@jm3/the-2016-election-map-1c437fe4fd2a#.6ca0el4xo

https://d262ilb51hltx0.cloudfront.net/max/2000/1*Z5bbBDKOls8gqUiJ2VjglQ.png

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/richard-spencer-speech-npi/508379/

Trumpland goes full neo-nazi...

i mean yeah white people deserve most of the blame for the outcome of this election obviously. deciding to focus on white women kind of makes me believe the speaker has certain ideas or assumptions about how women should be voting based on their gender xp

― k3vin k., Monday, November 21, 2016 1:58 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i agree with this & don't: I think there's an important point to be made abt whiteness trumping (no pun) gender that a lot of people didn't even *realize* was true. Even though white women have voted this way in tons of elections.

I'll admit to having to check myself when I saw these results a bit for a gender based / buried misogynist response to an extent, in part b/c this felt kind of like a repudiation of that "kill all men" twitter misogynist-troll meme that went around for awhile, like, we need to think constellationally about this stuff. (Nothing like a good "kill men" meme in the background of a bunch of racist police shootings....) There's definitely a strain of white feminism which makes it seem as if women vote in a bloc as consistently as black people, and they don't; they buy into the system as a majority. & I think that does force ppl to think constellationally, systemically, about identity as a political organizing principle & how it functions idk

Point being, while there's always going to be a misogynist strain when any group of women is singled out (I mean, they're only really being singled out against the backdrop of white men being the actual worst) but I think there are some very good reasons why people are pointing at this and saying, "we need to think about it."

Also this is literally the first election cycle I've ever seen anyone talk about it before, even though it's been happening for years and years!

I think my actual take-away from this election is that people who don't live in cities need to be forced to move to cities

living in small town america or the middle of nowhere is psychically damaging to people

that's already happening, it's called gentrification and it has lots of negative consequences

I haven't really seen focusing blame on white women so much as surprise that the potential first woman President didn't move the needle more than it did. 'Blame' as such should be reserved for rural voters (predominately white as a class, obv) and the hypocrisy and insanity of evangelical/fundie Christians.

― Kiarostami bag (milo z), Monday, November 21, 2016 2:02 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

cf this milo post, which inverts "race" and "ruralism"—blame should be reserved for white voters (predominantly rural—as in, distant from black people)

living anywhere is psychically damaging

probably best to live in an apartment with Melville novels.

i think you find whenever you try to single out a demographic that doesn't revolve around "whiteness" it's actually sleight of hand (often subconscious) to disguise "whiteness" as the source

has anyone looked into #pizzagate?

speaking of bubbles

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/21/news/protecting-donald-trump/index.html

it's gonna cost $1 million a day for trump & family to continue to live in NYC

i seriously doubt trump is going to continue to live in NYC and i'm sure his wife and kid will move to DC, if not by january then definitely by the end of the school year. michelle obama seriously considered staying with the girls in chicago after obama won in 08 as well

somehow imo this is the most offensive thing Trump has done since election day- yeah right you love new york, get fucked

as a rural southerner this election disappointed the fuck out of me on a number of levels, and one of them - maybe not the most important yet almost debilitatingly depressing to think about - is the status of the country black person. and my own guaranteed dead cert advantage in life, passed down to me generationally, in the theft of their labor and denial of basic personhood. and now the category basically doesn't exist because why would it, fuck these hicks i'm going to chicago. before he died about 20 years ago my great-uncle herben told me about his childhood, and how one of his best friends was an old former slave who taught him how to shoot and how to fish in southern georgia. he told me about the gullah geechees and their stories and music. i never knew these people and never would. we make such a big goddamn deal in this country about 'COUNTRY!!!" and big pickup trucks and "the heartland" and haybales and shit and it's a story that A) shuts black people out of it completely yet B) would not be possible without the massive generational work of literally millions of black people out in the country, working the land, being the ones who knew how shit worked. and now i look at these maps where the countryside is just red red red and it's like OK you got your genocide guys what more do you fucking want.

that "kill all men" twitter misogynist-troll meme that went around for awhile

I would be interested in hearing about this, or what you think this is.

Apologies if this was already posted.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html?_r=0