Mourning in America - Trump Year One: November '16 to

You can't guess someone's beliefs and values based on their gender. It doesn't break down that cleanly.

it's just that when DT said gross things about women and Latinos the 'cw' [sic] was "obviously he's going to get historically low % of women and Latino vote." Let's not say these things again.

fantasizing about alternate reality where Dems hammer GOPers for unwilling to utter the phrase "radical white terrorists"

eh, gabbard is like an old school democrat; she was opposed to same sex marriage for a long time too, and her dad is a republican. but she has some evolving views and there are thingsa bout her that are good. I have little doubt that she and trump actually agree on anything re: syria though, because Trump doesn't have any actual real thoughts on Syria.

and over 30% of hispanic men voted for Trump even though he accused Mexican immigrants of being rapists. Identity politics are sometimes complicated!

and how racist it is to group people of Cuban, Mexico, Central American, etc. descent into a monolithic demographic and make expectations of that group.

Trump's numbers are much worse when you eliminate Cubans - so while there are major differences in attitudes among other groups, they're much closer to expectations.

would think a candidate who routinely rates woman on a scale of 10 would've moved the needle some too

― frogbs, Monday, November 21, 2016 3:05 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i think the more vulgar aspects of trump's misogyny (grab em by the pussy etc) while obv offensive to a whole lot of people just don't really faze many others. we previously had some standards about what is acceptable for a presidential candidate to say but ultimately americans are kind of a vulgar people. we watch a TON of porn, view counts in the billions, this shit is like the most popular content on the web among both men and women right? trump's "locker room talk" i think probably sounded pretty tame to a lot of people

i think that's right and the "when you're famous they let you" sounded close enough to establishing consent that ppl who wanted an excuse to dismiss it as more msm hysteria had one

yeah I have seen that explanation from facebook commenters and such. There's also still a pretty ingrained idea of "oh well powerful men are always going to be like that."

which is true, and maybe why ppl should have voted for the woman

and over 30% of hispanic men voted for Trump even though he accused Mexican immigrants of being rapists. Identity politics are sometimes complicated!

― sarahell, Monday, November 21, 2016 2:15 PM (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the numbers for hispanic turnout seen from exit polls have been put into question. i don't think we know these numbers with perfect accuracy and my not for a while

with overall turnout depressed from '12 and certainly from '08 (right? even accting for pop growth?), one way to look at it is that only the hardcore committed turned out, and the less politically-motivated, that obama had success in bringing out, stayed home this time.

any way you cut it i think this idea of trump "increasing share" among people of color needs to be taken with some skepticism

it is certainly possible tho.

Trump looking into fixed elections is going to be like OJ looking for the real killer.

apparently gabbard is under consideration for UN ambassador, which would be pretty great considering the alternatives and also i'm sure hawaii could elect someone with more orthodox progressive views to take her place

idk if watching a lot of porn is the best example of how Americans are vulgar and tolerate vulgarity, because that's something people tend to do in private. Mainstream television is a better indicator.

any way you cut it i think this idea of trump "increasing share" among people of color needs to be taken with some skepticism

I'm definitely not saying he increased his share among people of color, just that people would "expect" that the support would be much much lower than it was.

http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/11/how-the-vote-broke-in-historical-perspective/508352/

I work in the election industry—on the counting side, not the political side. When I went to sleep on election night, Trump’s lead was a million votes and climbing. This was not my preferred outcome, but I accepted the selection of the people—only it wasn’t, as it turns out.

My calculation today gives Clinton a 2.5 million vote margin when everything is counted. (Vote-by-mail states count slowly—more paper handling for mail-ins. California has three million uncounted ballots, one million in LA County (3 to 1 for Clinton) and another half-million in San Diego County (3 to 2 for Clinton).) She may also pick up more votes in other vote-by-mail states out west—think Oregon, Washington, Colorado.

...

The narrative on election night was all how Clinton turned victory to defeat, her campaign overconfident, her voters staying home, and her herself unable to best perhaps the least capable candidate ever nominated by a major party.

The numbers in Florida and California just do not support that evaluation. In both places, turnout was up over 8 percent. She pulled a 930K vote lead in counties covering 58 percent of the state’s voters, counties where Obama ran up a 770K margin that enabled him to win a 70K victory in 2012. Her lead failed because Trump himself ran up a million vote margin in the remaining rural counties, beating Romney’s numbers by 350K. Hilary lost Florida, but she and Trump engaged the voters.

In California, she will nearly double Trump's tally, and out-poll Obama (the 2008 and 2012 version) by about three percentage points. She will receive nine million plus votes in California. These are the votes pushing her national total two million and more votes past that of the President-elect.

She will not be inaugurated two months hence, not in virtue of a pitiful campaign. She wasn’t perfect, and sometimes not very good, but she received support from enough of the republic to win the office in any universe not governed by an 18th century compromise with the slave-owning aristocrats of the Carolinas and Virginia.

She has 2.5 million more votes than the person who will be inaugurated. That is not a close margin.

This is what a democratic crisis looks like.

i think that's right and the "when you're famous they let you" sounded close enough to establishing consent that ppl who wanted an excuse to dismiss it as more msm hysteria had one

yeah I guess I was in the "this is gross but he's probably right" camp, we've all heard groupie stories and Trump seems like the type willing to do 'favors' to anyone in the biz willing to sleep with him, then a bunch of women came up and said uh no, what he's doing is textbook sexual assault and we didn't consent to it

the fact that so many people jumped out to say "all these women are liars" is the worst part of this, IMO. and we wonder why sexual assault goes unreported so often.

I figure that people who aligned with trump politically and emotionally either aligned well with trump's misogyny, too, or else rationalized it as not nearly bad enough to overcome their stronger feelings of approval for and kinship with him (e.g. their feeling threatened by Muslims / Mexicans / gay marriage / trade deals / etc.)

at least thru '60s most women felt obligated to follow their husbands' lead; not an apparent big change perhaps, aside from less universal coupling

― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Monday, November 21, 2016 2:26 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

er... you want to walk that back? i don't like my republican family members any more than anybody else, but women are more than capable of being republicans on their own two feet and denying them any agency in their votes isn't cool.

yeah, someone on fb posted the other day showing that a California voter had some pathetically small percentage of influence compared to a voter in Wyoming.

I work in the election industry—on the counting side, not the political side. When I went to sleep on election night, Trump’s lead was a million votes and climbing. This was not my preferred outcome, but I accepted the selection of the people—only it wasn’t, as it turns out.

kinda a bad look to start an article with this sort of claim of authority when it was clear from pretty early in the night that even if hillary were going to lose the EC she was going to win the popular vote. but yes, the electoral college is bad

that's not an article, k3v

is there anyone here who likes the way votes are distributed in the electoral college?

like the filibuster, people only like the electoral college when it directly benefits their side

few here are from Wyoming or Alaska. but then, few people are from there period.

people's opinions on the EC seem to be outcome-dependent. since it tends to advantage white rural voters, democrats don't like it and republicans do

xp shakey otm

Doc C, of course, i just meant that eg married couples probably more likely to vote the same way than not.

When was the last time it benefited the "left"?

(didn't mean a matter of them slavishly following their mate) xp

insofar as the "left" has always been urban = never

xp

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/11/donald-trump-election-hillary-clinton-election-night-inequality-republicans-trumpism/

― jason waterfalls (gbx), Friday, November 18, 2016 12:44 PM (three days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

^^ glad to see this is already here, i thought it was excellent. ugly but still hopeful.

i thought this was good too, and shorter :)

https://medium.com/@rortybomb/preparing-for-the-worst-how-conservatives-will-govern-in-2017-3889bcb4bb48#.h6t914p57

They aren’t ready with a replacement for Obamacare. They aren’t ready for the heat of privatizing Medicare, or weakening Medicaid. There are constituencies for both, and town halls can be flooded and people organized. Those who desperately wanted a change towards economic security are going to be surprised that the factories aren’t coming back and that they signed up for a libertarian kleptocracy instead. But we should also be clear on the challenges of their policy agenda, and that the cracks won’t appear by themselves.

i'm seeing that one of Ryan/Trump's first plans out the gate is rescinding obama's overtime rules that cover anyone making less than $47k. so several million people just voted to cut their own pay.

god americans are so dumb

So Clinton's majority was, according to the analysis above, decently sized but excessively clustered in already-blue states and regions.

Urban/coastal/blue-state liberals in wanting to be in cities/near coasts/predominantly liberal areas shockah!

otoh that will be a relief to many non-profits and small businesses.

a significant number of arts non-profits were/are having to consider significant changes because of those laws and the fact that a lot of work in the arts isn't the standard 5 days a week/8 hrs a day, and that it is seasonal/temporary.

kris kobach commits rookie mistake, gets caught in front of cameras with an important paper showing:

https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/800806633865674752

and what's on the paper is bad.

i kinda feel that may have been intentional - a dog whistle to the alt-right

i'm trying not to let 'chess game psyops' type ideas take up too much brainspace tbh

few here are from Wyoming or Alaska. but then, few people are from there period.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, November 21, 2016 8:44 PM (twenty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Was it those 2 states that came up on University Challenge tonight as having less population than Leeds but greater size than the UK. I think it was definitely Wyoming and one other.

3d election map!

http://metrocosm.com/election-2016-map-3d/

meanwhile, in north carolina:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2016/11/21/pat_mccrory_is_trying_to_steal_the_north_carolina_governorship.html

the Mike Conczal piece goole linked is great. one of my favourite writers

3d election map!

http://metrocosm.com/election-2016-map-3d/

― goole, Monday, November 21, 2016 4:29 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

3d is cool but the cartograms mentioned are just so meaningless to me, idgi

http://i1.wp.com/metrocosm.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/election-2016-cartogram-purple.png
http://i0.wp.com/metrocosm.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/538-hexagon-cartogram.png

538 had a bunch of other stupid visualizations too. idk maybe they are extremely useful to other people but i really don't have a hard time looking at a regular map and knowing that some states/counties are more populous than others

(obv the warped one on the left is what im talking about among the first two)

some states are hard to see on a regular map because they are very small

i was talking with my gf the other night about how every country pays so much attention to the USA and we pay absolutely no attention to any of them. this quote in the times in a piece about 'voters that didn't vote and don't regret it in milwaukee' threw me for a loop:

As for Mrs. Clinton, “other countries probably wouldn’t have respected us because we had a woman running the country,” he said.

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/eca5b3f03be168c6b3e6ec526067fd90ae7bcfe3/r=x408&c=540x405/local/-/media/USATODAY/GenericImages/2013/04/08/gty-2628488-4_3.jpg

(obv the warped one on the left is what im talking about among the first two)

― marcos, Monday, November 21, 2016 4:38 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

baahh i mean right not left

John Manoogian III, who did that great chart categorizing cognitive biases, design this election map that I like better:

https://medium.com/@jm3/the-2016-election-map-1c437fe4fd2a#.6ca0el4xo

https://d262ilb51hltx0.cloudfront.net/max/2000/1*Z5bbBDKOls8gqUiJ2VjglQ.png

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/richard-spencer-speech-npi/508379/

Trumpland goes full neo-nazi...

i mean yeah white people deserve most of the blame for the outcome of this election obviously. deciding to focus on white women kind of makes me believe the speaker has certain ideas or assumptions about how women should be voting based on their gender xp

― k3vin k., Monday, November 21, 2016 1:58 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i agree with this & don't: I think there's an important point to be made abt whiteness trumping (no pun) gender that a lot of people didn't even *realize* was true. Even though white women have voted this way in tons of elections.

I'll admit to having to check myself when I saw these results a bit for a gender based / buried misogynist response to an extent, in part b/c this felt kind of like a repudiation of that "kill all men" twitter misogynist-troll meme that went around for awhile, like, we need to think constellationally about this stuff. (Nothing like a good "kill men" meme in the background of a bunch of racist police shootings....) There's definitely a strain of white feminism which makes it seem as if women vote in a bloc as consistently as black people, and they don't; they buy into the system as a majority. & I think that does force ppl to think constellationally, systemically, about identity as a political organizing principle & how it functions idk

Point being, while there's always going to be a misogynist strain when any group of women is singled out (I mean, they're only really being singled out against the backdrop of white men being the actual worst) but I think there are some very good reasons why people are pointing at this and saying, "we need to think about it."

Also this is literally the first election cycle I've ever seen anyone talk about it before, even though it's been happening for years and years!