2008 Primaries Thread

The concert will be webcast at www.iclips.net.

I can hardly wait until 2009, when Obama or Hillary starts having problems getting shit passed and Morbs calls us all chumps.

i doubt it will take that long

the NRA being an example mainly sticking in my head due to seeing "Mad Love" at the theater last night(there's a card in the credits for it) and drunkposting.

I'm kind of amazed how Obama's logo fits right into that steal your face like the Dead have been waiting 40 years for him.

http://www.dipdive.com/

At 4:30, it's too long, but it's pretty cool.

Read the excerpted narrative to this ad -- to see John McCain's closing argument in November: POW; inspired by Ronald Reagan; will cut wasteful spending; will keep taxes low; proud social conservative who will never waiver. This will be a powerful pitch.

http://www.krucialkeys.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/we-are-the-world-ak-2k7.jpg

xpost

Across the street, Tom O’Hara, 62, was sullen. He was getting ready to open his bar, O’Hara’s, and was pondering his irrelevance, a Republican man pummeled by a Republican backlash.

“Did the Republicans do too many wrong things?” Mr. O’Hara said. “Oh yes, they did. I’m upset with George Bush. He gave away more money than the Democrats. I’m very concerned about immigration. Don’t tell me everyone should come in here and pick my fruits.”

He said he did not know if he would even bother to vote. None of the candidates stir him. “They don’t have the fight,” he said.

Anyway, he said he thought the race was sewn up. “We think we know who will win: Bill and Hillary, and Bill will be in charge of the White House. I’m very unhappy about that. And I feel powerless.”

Frank Rich otm X 2:

In what she advertises as 35 years of fighting for Americans, Mrs. Clinton can point to some battles won. But many of them were political campaigns for Bill Clinton: seven even before his 1992 presidential run. The fistfighting required if she is president may also often be political. As Mrs. Clinton herself says, she has been in marathon combat against the Republican attack machine. Its antipathy will be increased exponentially by the co-president who would return to the White House with her on Day One.

and

What we also know is that, unlike Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama is not hesitant to take on John McCain. He has twice triggered the McCain temper, in spats over ethics reform in 2006 and Mr. McCain’s Baghdad market photo-op last year. In Thursday’s debate, Mr. Obama led an attack on Mr. McCain twice before Mrs. Clinton followed with a wan echo. When Bill Clinton promised that his wife and Mr. McCain’s friendship would ensure a “civilized” campaign, he may have been revealing more than he intended about the perils for Democrats in that matchup.

? A "wan echo"? That strikes me as highly inaccurate, I watched the debate. I think Bill's predicting it'd be civilized because.. afaik the Bush scorched-earth attack dogs are with Romney and not likely to go for McCain.

I don't know what to say - Frank Rich doesn't like the Clintons, and hasn't for years and years, and trashed Gore last time around too.
JOURNAL; J. Crew vs. Banana Republic
Eight months to go -- but hey, who's counting? -- and we're stranded with two establishment, tightly scripted, often robotic candidates who are about as different from one another as J. Crew and Banana Republic. Both are wealthy, Ivy-League-educated boomers who took safe paths through the Vietnam War, whose career advancement was greased by their dads, who advertise their intimacy with Jesus, who reek of smarmy soft money and who will do anything to win, whether it be Mr. Gore's lying about his own Congressional voting record in a debate or Mr. Bush's heartless exploitation of women's fears of breast cancer in a scurrilous attack ad.

In the true Clinton manner, both are also chameleons, ready to don new guises in a flash -- from Mr. Gore's down-home wardrobe to Mr. Bush's last-minute emergence as a champion of campaign finance reform, patients' rights and clean air. The substantive disputes between the men are, in truth, minimal in a prosperous post-cold-war era when both parties aspire to Rockefeller Republicanism (literally so in that each standard-bearer is the prince of a brand-name American dynasty).

WTF?: "Romney leads McCain by 37 percent to 34 percent in California." Within the margin of error, but still . . .

that must be wrong, cnn reported this morning "The poll shows the race on the Republican side isn't as close — John McCain holds a 32-24 percent lead over Romney with Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. Ron Paul pulls 10 percent of support among likely Republican voters."

as for the 'yes we can' video; obviously those things probably aren't going to sway anyone, I don't think the average person is that influenced politically by hollywood and entertainment stars. also, how come scarlett johannson is constantly shown at a mic but never actually sings anything? anyway, i'm sure it was fun for the people who made it, although I think it kind of lessens the impact of that speech, which was one of the great political campaign speaches of recent times

regardless though i predict obama squeezes by clinton in CA

Morbs will start calling you chumps when Hil decides to go with the McCain plan for Iraq, abandons universal healthcare, etc..

akm, is the CNN poll you cite evaluating the GOP race nationwide or in California only?

it was in a piece in the ticker about california (and obama and clinton being essentially tied) so i'm not sure what that reuters thing is about, I think maybe they got mccain and romney reversed?

Super Tuesday's going to be interesting.. I have no idea what's going to happen, I'm seeing some state polls closing up, some not, Hillary's had a significant uptick in daily trackers since the debate (Rasmussen, Gallup) but.. ??

Yeah, Romney = WTF. GOP primaries are winner-take-all so California could be huge, but I don't see Romney ahead anywhere else but Massachusetts.

also, this: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/03/MNF7UR6FE.DTL&tsp=1

romney's doing better in CA cuz that's the only place he's campaigning

If he wins there, but loses everyplace else on Tuesday, I guess at this point he'd consider that a win and a reason to keep going on through the early March primaries.

frank rich hasn't done actual reporting for years, he just repeats things people tell him

sort of a proto-blogger

frank rich hasn't done actual reporting for years, he just repeats things people tell him

as opposed to reporters, of course

garrison keillor has endorsed obama. how very special.

I'm not arguing for Frank's neutrality or anything, I'm just saying I agree with him. Why does the NYT hate the Clintons so much, though?

A reminder - seven years ago, a patriotic group of Americans had to make a choice between conventional experience and change they desperately needed. It wasn’t an easy decision. Both options were compelling in their own right, but when it was time to make a decision, the choice was clear. The New England Patriots started Tom Brady over Drew Bledsoe, and Brady went on to be the MVP of Super Bowl XXXVI. Now that’s change we can believe in.

lolz

haha ouch

ooh this is interesting:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/02/breaking-news-p.html

was linked to it through tpm

Why does the NYT hate the Clintons so much, though?

they hate them soooooo much they endorsed hillary for president

Well they're not dopes--she is still their senator. But Maureen's still very anti-Clinton, Frank's anti-Clinton, there were the Times' boosting of Whitewater back in the day. I mean, judging by the columnists, it's like they endorsed Obama, you know?

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/020308DailyUpdateGraph2.gif

NY Times front-page story today about Obama lying his ass off about nuclear-regulatory bill that never got passed, despite his trumpeting it as a success in Iowa.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/us/politics/03exelon.html

From a NYT story:

"Looking to Tuesday, Mr. Romney has concentrated his efforts in states that award delegates by caucuses and conventions, where His organization efforts can help offset the pull of Mr. McCain’s higher name recognition."

Whoa, God really is on the Mormons' side.

haha

there's still 10% unaccounted for in that gallup chart -- and if the upward trend of obama's numbers suggests anything, it's that those undecided will probably break more towards obama. here's hoping.

BILL KRISTOL: Look, the only people for Hillary Clinton are the Democratic establishment and white women. The Democratic establishment -- it would be crazy for the Democratic Party to follow an establishment that's led it to defeat year after year. White women are a problem, that's, you know -- we all live with that.

(laughter)

JUAN WILLIAMS (National Public Radio correspondent and Fox News contributor): Not me!

HUME: Bill, for the record, I like white women.

KRISTOL: I know, I shouldn't have said that.

LOL

Brit Hume loves all women of the world.

Thanks to the wonders of my booth tv here at the bar, i get to flip back & forth between Michelle Obama on cspan and the puppy bowl.

Obama is doing a good job at hoovering up the Kennedys...

wau Bill Kristol

superbowl sunday obama girlfest rally with michelle obama, caroline kennedy, oprah & maria shriver in california is a pretty daring headline grab for monday morning

Five points for whoever finds this advanced somewhere as a serious comparison:

"A Massachusetts powerhouse comes to grief in Arizona. The Patriots? No, Mitt Romney, up against John McCain."

^^^ it was the analogy that had to be made

just looking at how the campaigns are being run -- with all the analysts pondering whether endorsements turn into votes, i think an endorsement is what a campaign can make of it, and i give credit to obama's for knowing how to stage-manage and sell the significance of those endorsements to the press.

Tomorrow:

Hillary in New York, Woostah and New Haven, CT
Barack in Hartford, Boston, and... E. Rutherford, NJ

NRO lolz spotted by the Balloon Juice guys:

Boasting in Boston [Michael Graham]

I am so confident of both a Patriots win today and a Romney win in Massachusetts on Tuesday that I made this pledge on the air Friday: "If the NY Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, I will vote cast my Super Duper Tuesday primary vote for (shudder) John McCain."

So when I say "Go, Pats!" I really, REALLY mean it.

I also think they are even more of a lead-pipe cinch to win the Super Bowl than McCain is to win the GOP nomination. Either way, I'm putting my money..er vote where my mouth is.

02/03 05:45 PM

Right on time... Obama's first national lead. CNN has Obama at 49 and Clinton at 45.