U.S. Supreme Court: Post-Nino Edition

I've written SCOTUS fic before, but I've never considered slash tbh.

Former girlfriend of Clarence Thomas claims she had threesomes with the controversial Supreme Court justice and some of his female colleagues

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3543232/Former-girlfriend-Clarence-Thomas-claims-threesomes-controversial-Supreme-Court-justice-female-colleagues.html

Better put some ointment on that GINSBURN

On May 14, Justice Clarence Thomas gave the commencement address at Hillsdale College.

SCOTUSBlog has a link to the video of this but I don't think I want to watch it

Oh whew I thought your post was referencing a different Clarence Thomas-related news item.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/13/supreme-court-rejects-case-challenging-key-white-house-air-pollution-regulation/?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

The Supreme Court on Monday left intact a key Obama administration environmental regulation, refusing to take up an appeal from 20 states to block rules that limit the emissions of mercury and other harmful pollutants that are byproducts of burning coal.

The high court’s decision leaves in place a lower-court ruling that found that the regulations, put in place several years ago by the Environmental Protection Agency, could remain in effect while the agency revised the way it had calculated the potential industry compliance costs. The EPA finalized its updated cost analysis in April.

Radiolab has a new podcast about the Supreme Court. Pretty cool stuff if you're interested in the history of the thing and key decisions and so on.

Supreme Court nominee tutors twice a month (as do his clerks) and does 5th grade commencement speech at elementary school in DC. He's been doing it for 18 years. I don't think this will impress Mitch McConnell enough to give him a hearing.

http://www.npr.org/2016/06/15/482206242/merrick-garland-delivers-5th-grade-commencement-address

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/education/wp/2016/06/15/merrick-garland-tells-5th-grade-graduates-to-work-hard-dreams-dont-come-true-by-magic/

at this point I'm kinda hoping after Hillary wins Garland's nomination is withdrawn and someone even leftier gets Scalia's spot

odds seem low but one can dream

If RBG announces she's retiring the day after the election, I would accept Garland PLUS someone leftier. Or two lefties, whatev.

that scenario maybe more likely, yeah

Any nominee still needs Senate confirmation. HRC's coattails may not stretch far enough to take the Senate away from McConnell & Co, even with Donald the Menace heading the ticket.

Yeah, there's no reason to assume that this nonsense will end post-Obama

this executive jiggery pokery you mean?

as it stands now, there's no way the GOP is keeping the Senate

lol Alfred

at this point I'm kinda hoping after Hillary wins Garland's nomination is withdrawn and someone even leftier gets Scalia's spot

― Οὖτις, Thursday, June 16, 2016 2:36 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

odds seem low but one can dream

― Οὖτις, Thursday, June 16, 2016 2:36 PM (1 hour ago)

whatever happens garland's nomination was an incredible chess move from obama and will play a huge role in the election

not that i disagree but can you game it out? (assuming you're not being sarcastic.) i still have troubling seeing exactly what kind of impact it'll have / has had within the current american electorate

i was being sarcastic ;)

whatever happens garland's nomination was an incredible chess move from obama and will play a huge role in the election

I think it was a good chess move at the time, however as ammo against the GOP it's absolutely dwarfed by Trump shitting all over the chessboard on a daily basis.

thanks for the image

I think it will be inconsequential. I think it was probably the best of non-amazing chess move options at the time (the GOP is going to obstruct no matter what, so pick someone who gives them the least excuse to do so), but I wouldn't call it "incredible," and now, as pointed out, Trump is probably going to drown out any effect of that pick in congressional elections.

feel like the only dividends it could possibly pay off at this pt would be if some republicans start to freak out as we get closer to the election and try to push through garland and other republicans still committed to trump will push back and it'll just become another indication of how fractured + broken the party is.

what are the chances of Alito, Slobbo, Roberts, and Tony dropping dead the second Hillz crosses 270 electoral votes in November?

I'm not sure that is hypothetical enough for you to disavow involvement with the sniper oh I've said too much

The more I think about it, why wouldn't Republicans hold out for the next justice to drop or retire? Two of the three oldest are liberal and the other is Kennedy.

Good shot at a conservative majority 7-justice court. What do they have to lose?

i think that type of inaction would make them look extremely bad worse and might lead to some backlash, but maybe i overestimate the distaste that would engender.

I guess maybe finding rhetorical cover for it would be too challenging? But "Republicans will never be able to find rhetorical cover for this" sounds like famous last words.

If they retain the Senate, I'm not sure what difference "backlash" would make.

I guess there's a kind overall brand damage that could happen/is happening.

Yeah, I think it's unlikely that they continue to block a nominee after the election, but certainly not impossible

after the election we'll return to business as usual, i.e. hating Hillary

yeah I don't see them having a "come to Jesus" moment, they're just gonna double-down kowtowing to what remains of their constituency if they retain the Senate.

For people saying you don't see them continuing, why? Have they ever not done the most cynical, calculating, self-interested thing possible in recent memory?

"if some republicans start to freak out as we get closer to the election and try to push through Garland"

I doubt Republicans, in general, can detect the difference between Garland and a theoretically more-liberal Clinton appointee. Even if they can detect it, it's not a distinction they care about enough to push Garland through as lesser of evils. Garland was nominated by Obama, therefore he is stained. Anybody Hillary would appoint would be about as bad, from their perspective; it's not a major difference.

The relevant question is whether they are willing to hold hearings in November (after the election but before the inauguration) or wait until January (to "give the new president a chance"). I suppose there are some dead-enders who think the Court will be fine with eight, seven, or six justices for four years until they have an (imagined) shot at a new president, but that seems unlikely.

Why does it seem unlikely?

after the election we'll return to business as usual, i.e. hating Hillary

this prophecy is all too likely to come true. and the virulence of the hate will probably equal that shown to Obama.

man alive, if they can continue they will, but it will be more difficult because their line since Scalia's death has been that the next president should choose his replacement. It will be tricky to shift to some new excuse after months of delays. Also, there's a good chance Republicans lose the Senate, which will also make it harder to stop a nominee.

Yeah, I guess because this "we must wait until we have a new president to give the people a voice" shit is so new, and so transparent. I think they can stretch it out for a few months but not years at a time. Dunno why I think that. Perhaps I'm underestimating their dickishness. Fortunately in representative democracies, elections can (theoretically) punish dickishness

man alive, if they can continue they will, but it will be more difficult because their line since Scalia's death has been that the next president should choose his replacement. It will be tricky to shift to some new excuse after months of delays.

Nah, they'll just make up a new excuse to justify continued stonewalling. I mean, the Iraq!

Ultimately I see it as a matter of how highly they value a majority on the Supreme Court, which is very, very highly. Yes, they'll keep hating Hillary, but that hate is more the excuse than the reason. There is no single appointed position that matters more politically than a Supreme Court justice, and it's not even close. I mean the likely scenarios during the next term if they keep obstructing are:

1) one liberal dies or retires, 4-3 majority conservative court
2) one liberal and kennedy dies or retires, 3-3 divide, arguably still better off than they are now with the 4-4 split because there's no "moderate" Kennedy vote anymore that's likely to switch sides on key votes.
3) both breyer and RBG die or retire, 4-2 conservative majority

OTOH, I guess if Trump gives dems some gains in 2016 in the Senate, 2018 might be the Dem chance to get a majority. I guess if you really think SCOTUS obstruction is going to be a deciding factor in Senate races when you have a likely unpopular democratic president in office, obstruction risks tipping the balance and you're better off letting the president choose a "moderate." But SCOTUS is a big prize and I wouldn't underestimate what the current GOP will do to get it.

Again "we can't stretch credulity any further with our rhetoric" does not strike me as a likely thought to enter most GOP Senators' heads these days.

thing is, it's not at all out of the realm of possibility for the dems to get a majority in 2016

I imagine if it starts to look likely that will change the GOP's tune.

fwiw, I just looked it up and six is the minimum number of justices to hear a case. Did not know that.

Yeah, whether the current mess with Trump has freed Republicans to explore depths of shamelessness or just made their shamelessness more apparent, it's definitely solid precedent.

this prophecy is all too likely to come true. and the virulence of the hate will probably equal that shown to Obama.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Thursday, June 16, 2016 9:46 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the gop hasnt treated a dem president as legitimate since the 70s

Rumors going around that Thomas may retire after the election:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/end-of-conservative-supreme-court-clarence-thomas-may-be-next-to-leave/article/2594317