https://twitter.com/billmon1/status/595286441283833856
^ this is kind of what my research is about
i'm not sure how wpa-style jobs programs are fundamentally different from the obama jobs bills, which krugman supported very vocally
problem with "employ everyone in huge public works programs" is it only works every once in a while. once we have the "equilibrium" amount of parks & schools you're either talking about expanding the state or the keynesian joke about "digging holes to fill them back up." so his argument implicitly requires that there's a large amount of non-NAIRU accelerating work out there to be done. which there might be? def lots of infrastructure spending to do on the cheap that is (infuriatingly) not getting done. but again, all the mainstream neoliberals he's deriding support that.
it's kind of like the flip of alesina, the economist who claims reducing government spending would lead to a surge in output as private investment rushes in to replace public spending. it's like, ok, even if we accept that this works (which no one really does) it's only a trick you can pull off once
― flopson, Tuesday, 5 May 2015 22:26 (eight years ago) link
Well, if you're strapped for ideas of public works that don't require specialized skills, out here in the western USA we have forests full of trails that need maintaining, but which are neglected for lack of money. That work right there could easily absorb a couple hundred thousand laborers in about ten western states for several years. Then there's decommissioning thousands of miles of unused, unneeded logging roads.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 5 May 2015 23:45 (eight years ago) link
i suppose the grimmer future-robot-overlord argument is that we will have (or have already had, for a long time!) whole populations of people who are totally beneath the use of capital, and the state's job is to keep them busy, keep them from turning into, well, what? communists? jihadis? charming hobos?
― goole, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 22:06 (eight years ago) link
it's the inherent flaw in capitalism. without consumers, the whole house of cards collapses. but capital monopolizes capital, destroying jobs, undermining consumerism. you can always blame it on benghazi
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 6 May 2015 22:30 (eight years ago) link
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51XAlxd1AjL._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
reading the post-recession postscript added to this in its new edition, it runs from the 80s up to almost today and just plain lays out, here this happened, here congress did that, here this dude stole that, here X percent of all these transactions in the US went through them, etc. etc., facts facts facts and cold and furious as hell
talk about total powerlessness : (
― j., Wednesday, 19 August 2015 15:16 (eight years ago) link
in a perhaps counterproductive gesture i have added that book to my amazon wishlist
― goole, Thursday, 20 August 2015 16:54 (eight years ago) link
same
― flopson, Thursday, 20 August 2015 19:12 (eight years ago) link
it's amazing, you'll love it goole
although it will probably make you cringe at your corpo worklife
― j., Thursday, 20 August 2015 19:35 (eight years ago) link
Nothing can possibly go wrong with this: China to Flood Economy With Cash as Global Markets Lose Faith
Updated Aug. 24, 2015 8:12 a.m. ETBEIJING—The selloff in Chinese stocks accelerated Monday, adding pressure on Beijing, which is planning to flood its banking system with new liquidity to offset effects of its recent surprise currency devaluation, according to Chinese officials and advisers to the central bank.
― Elvis Telecom, Monday, 24 August 2015 23:16 (eight years ago) link
turn the bubble machine back on!
― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 24 August 2015 23:24 (eight years ago) link
free itunes gift card economy
― johnny crunch, Monday, 24 August 2015 23:43 (eight years ago) link
Doesn't seem like the bubble machine is working yet.
― five six and (man alive), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 04:41 (eight years ago) link
"they fly so 'igh, they reach the sky, then like my 'opes they fade and die"
― called a 'Star' by the Compliance Unit (Bananaman Begins), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 09:21 (eight years ago) link
it's like all interconnected, maaaan
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/08/foreign-smart-money-frets-about-turmoil-at-home-flees-plows-into-us-housing-bubble-2-thinks-its-a-safe-haven.html
― five six and (man alive), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 14:42 (eight years ago) link
here's a similarly tendentious chinese-blaming article from last year's guardian:http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/26/low-interest-rates-high-house-prices-blame-chinese-wedding-planners
― transparent play for gifs (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 16:23 (eight years ago) link
Didn't miss this thread and all of the rolling we did (and may have yet to do), but I do miss tombot's images at the top.
― how's life, Tuesday, 25 August 2015 16:37 (eight years ago) link
panicked george washington had to get retired once the market went up 10,000 points after plummeting in 2008
― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 17:17 (eight years ago) link
well this is something to look forward to
http://www.salon.com/2015/10/14/the_world_will_come_crashing_down_again_inside_the_global_debt_crisis_that_america_is_about_to_import/
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 14 October 2015 18:05 (eight years ago) link
that article is kind of garbled and all over the place, but some of the concerns it raises strike me as real.
― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, 14 October 2015 19:18 (eight years ago) link
frustratingly sparse information on how $5B will be cut from social security in this very long article which spends more time talking about the ceremonial aspects of the formal leadership of the House
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/us/politics/congress-and-white-house-near-deal-on-budget.html
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 27 October 2015 01:00 (eight years ago) link
It's hard to tell from the article but it seems like the proposed deal is a two-year deal. So maybe.... $5B is not actually a lot? In 2013 total SS expenditures were $1.3T. So $5B would represent.... .38% of the total cost of the program. (A third of one percent).
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 27 October 2015 01:11 (eight years ago) link
U.S. Economy Added 292,000 Jobs in December; Unemployment Rate at 5%
― Mordy, Friday, 8 January 2016 13:55 (eight years ago) link
employment to population ratio still in the shitbin:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Friday, 8 January 2016 13:56 (eight years ago) link
U6 number is 9-13% depending on the source. Not as bad as it was but not great. Wages obviously are still in the shitter.
― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 8 January 2016 15:56 (eight years ago) link
compensation looking up
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/01/good-news-labor-compensation-finally-starting-rise
― flopson, Friday, 8 January 2016 18:25 (eight years ago) link
one thing i would like to see broken down (and that i hope my intuition is wrong about): if employee health care plans are included in measures of compensation, and health care costs keep rising, won't the value of compensation rise even though paying more for the same insurance isn't good?
― flopson, Friday, 8 January 2016 18:42 (eight years ago) link
I've got a bad feeling
― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 16:11 (eight years ago) link
O took semi-victory lap on economy last night in SOTU, though he acknowledged concern and work to be done. Republican response was of course cut taxes and help small business
― curmudgeon, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 16:41 (eight years ago) link
oil dropped below $30 yesterday :O
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 16:46 (eight years ago) link
^ that would seem to signal a worldwide economy that is being rolled into the shitbin, but the financial sector either reads something else in that fact or else it hasn't got the news, yet, because they don't seem to be reacting very strongly to it.
― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:42 (eight years ago) link
oil is dropping bc there is so much of it the market is oversaturated. for countries that depend on oil revenues for survival that means they're being rolled into the shitbin but countries that are now (or soon to be) energy independent are obv making out well from the same circumstances like the US (or recently, Israel, whose future oil exports are probably the reason Turkey is willing to reconcile).
― Mordy, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:45 (eight years ago) link
there is also the small problem of a global drop in demand. europe and the us are moribund and the brics are headed that way. copper is very low. it's not as if there's this pent-up appetite just waiting to be unleashed.
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:50 (eight years ago) link
copper is very low partially bc of the low oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-09/cheap-oil-also-means-cheaper-commodities-amid-surpluses
cool chart here:
http://quantumtechnology.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/copper-oil.jpg
― Mordy, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:54 (eight years ago) link
that's very interesting, thanks
― sleeve, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:59 (eight years ago) link
low oil prices are a good thing
― flopson, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:09 (eight years ago) link
good for the Western world mostly. not so good for the KSA or Putin.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:09 (eight years ago) link
what niggles at me is that this huge drop in oil prices has not stimulated demand. I guess I'll just accept that as good news for reducing fossil fuel burning, but i'll reserve judgment on what that means for the global economy.
― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:12 (eight years ago) link
low oil is shitting on my country's exchange rate atm, which is quite painful in some industries incl the one i work in. but adjusting to a macro price change doesn't exactly = into the shitbin
― flopson, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:13 (eight years ago) link
― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, January 13, 2016 1:12 PM (42 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
you may be reasoning from a price change. low demand -> drop in oil, not the other way around. it's like when people say, "why aren't more people investing given that interest rates are so low?" but re:oil i think there's also other complications, like a lot of companies that buy oil hedge against price changes so they aren't feeling the benefit yet
― flopson, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:14 (eight years ago) link
yes my impression is not that low demand is the primary driver behind oil price drops (though that is true in China where the economy has slowed down) but technology that has made oil production much more efficient and opened up new reserves that were inaccessible in the past.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:17 (eight years ago) link
just thought it was a sign of a 'not very robust economy' and low demand etc
xpost
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:18 (eight years ago) link
it might be a local thing too, as the last administration in this state really doubled down on natural gas and a lot of those businesses are closing down due to oil being low
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:19 (eight years ago) link
xp mordy - yeah but it's the combo, demand (europe & china) slows more than anticipated and supply continues to shoot up
― flopson, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:22 (eight years ago) link
saudi arabia etc. are going to keeping pumping until US producers either collapse or call uncle
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:23 (eight years ago) link
my pov: with a commodity as basic as oil the low demand that preceded this price drop doesn't indicate low demand only for oil, but for all commodities (see mordy's chart). low demand for industrial commodities indicates overproduction, which certainly hints at possible global recession. if demand doesn't pick up, there will certainly be liquidations in capital markets.
― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:24 (eight years ago) link
saudi arabia are not pumping to hurt the US and afaik it is not hurting US producers. it's hurting countries who rely heavily on oil exports for economic stability such as (surprise) Iran and Russia.
― Mordy, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 18:27 (eight years ago) link
― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, January 13, 2016 12:42 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
U sure? S&P down 2.5% today.
― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 21:54 (eight years ago) link
saudi arabia are not pumping to hurt the US and afaik it is not hurting US producers
It's definitely hurting US shale oil companies. Just for fun I looked at the 14 shale oil stocks mentioned in this article from 2013:
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-14-best-stocks-for-playing-the-us-shale-boom-2013-9?op=1
It looks like on average they've dropped by about half since their 2014 highs. A few are in the single-digits and courting bankruptcy.
― o. nate, Thursday, 14 January 2016 03:12 (eight years ago) link
interesting. still i don't think the US economy depends on oil to nearly the degree as some other states.
― Mordy, Thursday, 14 January 2016 03:32 (eight years ago) link
Definitely. I believe that with the shale boom the big pitch was the US was finally becoming oil independent - meaning on net it was neither an importer or exporter. So on net, one would think the impact on the US economy should be mostly a wash, since we produce about as much as we consume. However that ignores the cost of production. Below a certain price, shale production is no longer economic. We seem to be below that price now. Also the pain in shale is concentrated, whereas the benefits of low oil prices are diffuse. The concentrated pain may have a destabilizing effect on investment and credit, which could outweigh the diffuse benefits. Krugman did a blog post roughly to that effect a while back.
― o. nate, Thursday, 14 January 2016 03:42 (eight years ago) link