2014-15 Hall of Fame elections

that is a perfect storm of circumstances virtually guaranteeing that he won't get in for like, 2 more years?

interesting re: the ESPN voter results (granted small sample size, relative quality of voters, ESPN zing here) that you can't even predict the sanctimony of baseball writers w/much certainty given that piazza gets 13 votes on that list and bonds/Clemens both get 9.

Jay Jaffe's short explanation expanded on in the BP podcast: "Smoltz is famous."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25288

He thinks Mussina will take 6-8 years.

ha! can't argue with that. was just about to listen to effectively wild

One obvious factor--Jaffe probably mentions this--is how Smoltz is inseparable from Maddux and Glavine for most people. Plus he had those two plus Cox very vocally advocating for him last year. Not saying those things should matter, but they do.

yeah he made a point of highlighting the maddux coattails/90s barves appreciation factor

here's his recent ballot column

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/26/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-final-ten

Posnanski's rundown and ballot:

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/joe-posnanski-hall-of-fame-ballot/

I like that he scrapped strategic voting and just went with the 10 he thought were best. "The Hall of Fame was basically invented so that one day Pedro Martinez would be in it."

With 30% of the vote accounted for, it looks like there might be four this year--Biggio's still at 82%, Smoltz at 86%, and I think they'll both do all right with more traditional (stodgy if you prefer, clueless if you insist) voters who don't make their ballots public. Piazza's at 78% right now, and I expect he'll drop below.

i generally prefer to avoid hall of fame stuff because it's a ridiculous process run by sanctimonious assholes. and never more evident than with the whole 'first-ballot' shit. fuck these guys 4eva

no Tim Raines.
P Martinez, Johnson, Smoltz and Biggio: in.

How much did Piazza miss by? Ludicrous.

Randy Johnson 534 (97.3) Year 1
Pedro Martinez 500 (91.1) 1
John Smoltz 455 (82.9) 1
Craig Biggio 454 (82.7) 3
Mike Piazza 384 (69.9) 3
Jeff Bagwell 306 (55.7) 5
Tim Raines 302 (55) 8
Curt Schilling 215 (39.2) 3
Roger Clemens 206 (37.5) 3
Barry Bonds 202 (36.8) 3

http://bbwaa.com/

hey, Eddie Guardado got a vote

today is yet another day dodger fans punch themselves in the nuts and hate on tommy lasorda for trading pedro for delino deshields

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6rZkUQCEAA1Tli.jpg:large

next year looks like griffey, probably piazza, and hopefully raines. i'm assuming that in 2017 raines would get in if he's still waiting, and maybe vlad?

xp i can't tell if that's meant as a knock on pedro or a salute

lol @ favorite book? "Whatever."

smoltz possibly the first tommy-johned hall of famer?

Earlier in this thread, I predicted 96% for Johnson, 91% for Pedro--good start. Also 65% for Smoltz--bad finish.

that's a nice jump for Raines!

Something I often forget:

"The amazing thing about Johnson's career is where he was at the age of 28. He was 49-48 with a 3.95 career ERA..."

@TimRaines30
To all of the fans and media who continue to support my @BaseballHall candidacy, it's immensely appreciated. Thanks for all the kind words.

Disappointed to see Delgado not even last a second year. He was never going to make it, and (if I'm honest) didn't deserve to, so he only would have cluttered up the ballot. But he was in the running for greatest Jay ever, and judged solely by his actual time in Toronto, probably up at the top with Steib and Halladay.

@AaronGleeman

Barry Bonds' OPS vs. Hall of Famers:

1.138 - John Smoltz
1.064 - Pedro Martinez
1.003 - Randy Johnson

Conversely (from Posnanski):

Edgar Martinez (22-27%): 27.0%
— Pedro Martinez called Martinez the toughest hitter he ever faced. Facts do not back this up; Edgar hit .120 with 0 homers, 0 RBIs and 11 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances against Pedro. But it was a nice thing for Pedro to say.

just saw someone on facebook super indignant that martinez only got 27 percent. lollllllllll at that stat

For those who've been bothered by the logjam: it's clearing. As Omar's post above indicates, there is lots of room for movement on the next three or four ballots.

Next year: Griffey the only automatic debut. (Probably the only debut period to go in, unless Edmonds or Wagner does way down the road.) Leaving an easy path for Piazza, maybe Raines, hopefully Bagwell.

2017: Vlad and I-Rod, although the latter will probably contend with Bagwell/Piazza-like suspicion initially. So if it's just Guerrero, maybe a couple more spots. (I'm assuming Manny is persona non grata).

2018: Chipper and Thome. One or two spots open.

2019: Not up on Baseball Reference, so I'm not sure--just Rivera comes to mind.

2020: Writers will only be allowed to vote for Jeter this year. Skip to 2021.

Anyway, no foreseeable starting pitchers. Schilling and Mussina have lots of room, especially if, as was true this year, four in a year is a possibility.

Is Vlad really a shoe-in? I don't quake much sense. Gotta think I-Rod has seem issue Piazza, Bagwell, et al do.

Lol quake you.

forgot hoffman next year

thx for the Bullock story, jings

Neyer looks at the starting pitcher forecast:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/baseball-hall-fame-starting-pitchers-mike-mussina-curt-schilling-andy-pettitte-010615

Yeah, missed Hoffman. I'm sure he'll make it at some point, but I don't think right away. (Maybe even after Rivera.) I actually don't think Guerrero's a shoo-in, at least not first ballot. The out-and-out fan part of me wants him to be.

the current bunch of SPs sorted by WAR doesn't reveal a lot of HOF probables or even remote possibles. i count two definites and about ten other longshots.

Mark Buehrle (15, 35) 58.2
Tim Hudson (16, 38) 56.9
CC Sabathia (14, 33) 53.9
Felix Hernandez (10, 28) 45.4
Bartolo Colon (17, 41) 45.1
Cliff Lee (13, 35) 43.3
Justin Verlander (10, 31) 41.7
Cole Hamels (9, 30) 40.4
Clayton Kershaw (7, 26) 39.7
Zack Greinke (11, 30) 39.4
Jake Peavy (13, 33) 37.2
Jered Weaver (9, 31) 36.4
Jon Lester (9, 30) 32.6
Adam Wainwright (9, 32) 32.5
Matt Cain (10, 29) 32.4
Dan Haren (12, 33) 30.6
John Lackey (12, 35) 28.7
Bronson Arroyo (15, 37) 27.2
A.J. Burnett (16, 37) 27.1
James Shields (9, 32) 26.7
Joe Nathan (14, 39) 26.1
Max Scherzer (7, 29) 24.0
Josh Johnson (9, 30) 23.8
Anibal Sanchez (9, 30) 23.6
David Price (7, 28) 23.2
Chris Sale (5, 25) 22.9
Aaron Harang (13, 36) 22.8
Tim Lincecum (8, 30) 22.6
Jonathan Papelbon (10, 33) 22.2
Francisco Rodriguez (13, 32) 22.2
Johnny Cueto (7, 28) 21.9
Kyle Lohse (14, 35) 21.9
John Danks (8, 29) 21.7
Hiroki Kuroda (7, 39) 21.6
Randy Wolf (15, 37) 20.2

distant longshots or too young to call:

Mark Buehrle (15, 35) 58.2
Tim Hudson (16, 38) 56.9
CC Sabathia (14, 33) 53.9
Cliff Lee (13, 35) 43.3
Justin Verlander (10, 31) 41.7
Cole Hamels (9, 30) 40.4
Adam Wainwright (9, 32) 32.5
Max Scherzer (7, 29) 24.0
David Price (7, 28) 23.2
Chris Sale (5, 25) 22.9
Johnny Cueto (7, 28) 21.9

I'm still relatively optimistic about Verlander, although if there's an ongoing health issue, forget it. Sale's off to a great start. And Kimbrel might be the one reliever who's viewed differently.

Mark Buehrle is not getting into the Hall of Fame, but that dude is a pitching machine. You just wind him up and out comes 200 innings.

I think HOF voters will reframe what is considered HOF worthy and take into account the changes that happened in the last few years when it comes to pitching.

CC Sabathia was considered a lock until winter 2013 I'm pretty sure.

Disappointed to see Delgado not even last a second year. He was never going to make it, and (if I'm honest) didn't deserve to, so he only would have cluttered up the ballot. But he was in the running for greatest Jay ever, and judged solely by his actual time in Toronto, probably up at the top with Steib and Halladay.

Yeah this was disappointing. I'm not sure I see the difference between Delgado and Orlando Cepeda (who is in the HOF). By the standards of the HOF, he had a decent case.

Cepeda was a HOF'er through age 26; pretty questionable after that. From what I remember, his reputation rested heavily on perceived leadership and such (he also had to get past a drug arrest, and that took a few extra years). Cepeda's ahead in WAR, largely because of his first few seasons, but Carlos's career looks more impressive to me.

Also, Veteran's Committee--looks like Cepeda maxed out at 73.5% with the writers in his last year.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hall-of-fame-2016-class-mike-piazza-barry-bonds-roger-clemens-ken-griffey-jr-ken-rosenthal-010615

rosenthal on this year's HOF: even he's bummed about tim raines missing out

Does Delgado really have a better case than Olerud or Clark who were both dropped pretty quick? Cepeda definitely fringe though....

Cepeda was a key part of 3 pennant winners in the '60s; he's 30th among first basemen measured by JAWS (Delgado 35th; only postseason was with the '06 Mets), so his eventual selection might be fringey but not that surprising. Raw hitting numbers look better on the pitchers' era curve.

If anything Olerud should've at least stuck around longer; 20th in JAWS among 1b, consecutive WS wins with the Jays.

all while playing with a skull made of meringue!

Cepeda and Tony Perez have roughly the same numbers.

I didn't bring up Perez (or Rice) because it's generally agreed that they're weak HOF'ers, by that standard, Clark, Delgado, and Olerud would all be easily deserving of induction.

not sure delgado has a real case, but yeah it seems like he should have stuck around a couple years

if we're not gonna countenance steroid users in the hall, then maybe the non-(proven)-users need some extra consideration. after all, delgado wins the 2003 al mvp and finishes second in 2000, not fourth, if we're disregarding juicers

bill madden: even though he never tested positive and didn't appear in the mitchell report, i won't vote for piazza because opposing players told me he was on steroids

cool story bro