Bubble Paranoia Setting in as S&P 500 Surge Stirs Angst
― Elvis Telecom, Friday, 18 July 2014 08:52 (nine years ago) link
I don't want most people to experience the misery of another bubble bursting but I feel like the post-recession gains in the economy have been accumulated by such a relatively small number of people that it wouldn't be as devastating.
― Insane Prince of False Binaries (Gukbe), Friday, 18 July 2014 09:23 (nine years ago) link
I could easily see stocks falling 10% on no news, but to get more than that, I think something would have to happen in the "real" economy.
― o. nate, Friday, 18 July 2014 19:05 (nine years ago) link
on the bright side, enough americans now live in poverty that something/anything must be done (besides cut taxes / deregulate big finance)?
http://theweek.com/article/index/268053/the-american-middle-class-is-no-longer-safe-from-poverty-mdash-and-that-might-be-a-good-thing
― reggie (qualmsley), Friday, 19 September 2014 18:39 (nine years ago) link
U.S. Economy Grew 5% in Third Quarter, Its Fastest Rate in More Than a Decade
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/business/us-q3-gdp-revised-up-to-5-percent.html
― Mordy, Tuesday, 23 December 2014 17:10 (nine years ago) link
"As anthropologist David Graeber puts it, 'Whenever someone starts talking about the ‘free market,’ it’s a good idea to look around for the man with the gun.' Despite the endless talk of a 'free market,' our economy is shaped by myriad government policies—and no matter where we look, we see government policies working against everyday workers. Whether it’s letting the real value of the minimum wage decline, making it harder to unionize, or creating bankruptcy laws and intellectual-property regimes that primarily benefit capital and the 1 percent, the way the government structures markets is responsible for weakening labor and causing wages to stay stuck."
http://www.thenation.com/article/200257/score-wages-liberal-nihilism
― touch of a love-starved cobra (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 March 2015 14:21 (nine years ago) link
i agree with konczal but i also feel like wages are gonna start increasing soon. not that that necessarily contradicts anything he's saying here. but the best thing to raise wages is a low unemployment rate. if unemployment were to continue declining and wages not go up, something is definitely up
unionization is weird because the types of industries that are/were unionized tended to pay relatively higher wages so it's hard to figure out what the _actual_ union premium is. it's not empirically clear anymore that there even is a significant premium. people were talking about this paper (https://economics.byu.edu/frandsen/Documents/unioneffects.pdf) a few weeks ago that found a negative premium (for those who don't trust or can't understand economists this is a good explanation of the result & problems with the research design from a credibly left-wing source http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/17663/a_recent_study_says_unionized_companies_actually_pay_less._the_truth_is_a_b) (and here's matt yglesias http://www.vox.com/2015/2/3/7966951/frandsen-union-wages)
fancy high skill jobs that already pay a high premium don't really need unions and the industries that employ them benefit from the flexibility, but widespread unionization of service sector could be welfare improving
obama wants to raise the federal minimum wage to 10$. that's obviously not going to happen anytime soon, but citywide MWs seem to be catching on and don't seem to have much effect on employment (although they do increase prices) (http://www.irle.berkeley.edu/cwed/wp/economicimpacts_07.pdf) a lot depends on what happens in oakland & seattle, if the elasticity is still small around 15$ MW workers in other cities are gonna start making noise
i tend to think there's a limit to how much influence govts have on labor market outcomes for good or bad and that rather than try to chase the dream of higher wages we should just go straight for the jugular and redistribute. USA and sweden have the same pre-tax GINI coefficient etc
― flopson, Tuesday, 10 March 2015 17:28 (nine years ago) link
if unemployment were to continue declining and wages not go up, something is definitely up
this is exactly what's happening in the UK fwiw
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 10 March 2015 17:34 (nine years ago) link
real wages are actually _falling_ in the uk. labor productivity is also stalling though:
http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/boe-labour-prod-2005-12.jpg
in the us it's more of a "mystery" since it's been increasing
http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/image/FromApr2012/saleheen%20fig1%2016%20aug.png
― flopson, Tuesday, 10 March 2015 17:52 (nine years ago) link
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/something-weird-going-us-economy-133929266.html
― reggie (qualmsley), Saturday, 28 March 2015 13:00 (nine years ago) link
Is the US economy tanking right now?
― Team Foxcatcherwatcher (Sufjan Grafton), Monday, 30 March 2015 14:15 (nine years ago) link
always a healthy question
― Team Foxcatcherwatcher (Sufjan Grafton), Monday, 30 March 2015 14:16 (nine years ago) link
I'm confused about all these numbers. Dollar getting stronger, Euro getting weaker - so that's ... bad? Good? And US unemployment falling, but real, invisible unemployment ... rising? Steady? Also, Russia - still collapsing? How's China? I assume we're all in the shitbin (save Germany?), but how shitty, for real?
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 30 March 2015 14:25 (nine years ago) link
Krugman doesn't seem too worried
― curmudgeon, Monday, 30 March 2015 14:27 (nine years ago) link
Krugman probably envisions the European Central Bank pulling a Bernanke out of its hat, which it may not be able to encompass. As Keynes pointed out, the selfishness that drives expansion in a capitalistic economy is also what drives recessions. It all hinges on whether the broad sum of selfish actions are motivated by optimism or fear. That still applies. As for confusion, there is plenty of room for it atm.
― Aimless, Monday, 30 March 2015 16:59 (nine years ago) link
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/01/opinion/thomas-edsall-has-american-business-lost-its-mojo.html?emc=edit_ty_20150401&nl=opinion&nlid=34427133&_r=0
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 1 April 2015 16:22 (nine years ago) link
I dunno. That article has a graph with actual facts in it regarding the number of businesses closing vs. new businesses opening, but it also has statements like this:
"The forces driving this trend include the increasing regulation of small businesses, corporate consolidation, more occupational licensing requirements and too few immigrants with high-tech skills."
For which statement it gives absolutely no evidence, including such weak-assed stuff as anecdotal evidence, which any half-assed journalist could gin up, whether or not the statement is actually true. I guess we are supposed to find it self-evident.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 1 April 2015 19:15 (nine years ago) link
these are unrelated, more or less, but i've been thinking about these two series of tweets a lot
matt stoller, from a few months ago, on the global dominance of banks and its history:
https://storify.com/keiteay/matthew-stollar
"billmon" on the paucity of good antipoverty policy and the need for direct, WPA-style job programs
https://twitter.com/billmon1/status/595278407304286208
― goole, Monday, 4 May 2015 18:34 (eight years ago) link
https://twitter.com/billmon1/status/595286441283833856
^ this is kind of what my research is about
i'm not sure how wpa-style jobs programs are fundamentally different from the obama jobs bills, which krugman supported very vocally
problem with "employ everyone in huge public works programs" is it only works every once in a while. once we have the "equilibrium" amount of parks & schools you're either talking about expanding the state or the keynesian joke about "digging holes to fill them back up." so his argument implicitly requires that there's a large amount of non-NAIRU accelerating work out there to be done. which there might be? def lots of infrastructure spending to do on the cheap that is (infuriatingly) not getting done. but again, all the mainstream neoliberals he's deriding support that.
it's kind of like the flip of alesina, the economist who claims reducing government spending would lead to a surge in output as private investment rushes in to replace public spending. it's like, ok, even if we accept that this works (which no one really does) it's only a trick you can pull off once
― flopson, Tuesday, 5 May 2015 22:26 (eight years ago) link
Well, if you're strapped for ideas of public works that don't require specialized skills, out here in the western USA we have forests full of trails that need maintaining, but which are neglected for lack of money. That work right there could easily absorb a couple hundred thousand laborers in about ten western states for several years. Then there's decommissioning thousands of miles of unused, unneeded logging roads.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 5 May 2015 23:45 (eight years ago) link
i suppose the grimmer future-robot-overlord argument is that we will have (or have already had, for a long time!) whole populations of people who are totally beneath the use of capital, and the state's job is to keep them busy, keep them from turning into, well, what? communists? jihadis? charming hobos?
― goole, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 22:06 (eight years ago) link
it's the inherent flaw in capitalism. without consumers, the whole house of cards collapses. but capital monopolizes capital, destroying jobs, undermining consumerism. you can always blame it on benghazi
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 6 May 2015 22:30 (eight years ago) link
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51XAlxd1AjL._SY344_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
reading the post-recession postscript added to this in its new edition, it runs from the 80s up to almost today and just plain lays out, here this happened, here congress did that, here this dude stole that, here X percent of all these transactions in the US went through them, etc. etc., facts facts facts and cold and furious as hell
talk about total powerlessness : (
― j., Wednesday, 19 August 2015 15:16 (eight years ago) link
in a perhaps counterproductive gesture i have added that book to my amazon wishlist
― goole, Thursday, 20 August 2015 16:54 (eight years ago) link
same
― flopson, Thursday, 20 August 2015 19:12 (eight years ago) link
it's amazing, you'll love it goole
although it will probably make you cringe at your corpo worklife
― j., Thursday, 20 August 2015 19:35 (eight years ago) link
Nothing can possibly go wrong with this: China to Flood Economy With Cash as Global Markets Lose Faith
Updated Aug. 24, 2015 8:12 a.m. ETBEIJING—The selloff in Chinese stocks accelerated Monday, adding pressure on Beijing, which is planning to flood its banking system with new liquidity to offset effects of its recent surprise currency devaluation, according to Chinese officials and advisers to the central bank.
― Elvis Telecom, Monday, 24 August 2015 23:16 (eight years ago) link
turn the bubble machine back on!
― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 24 August 2015 23:24 (eight years ago) link
free itunes gift card economy
― johnny crunch, Monday, 24 August 2015 23:43 (eight years ago) link
Doesn't seem like the bubble machine is working yet.
― five six and (man alive), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 04:41 (eight years ago) link
"they fly so 'igh, they reach the sky, then like my 'opes they fade and die"
― called a 'Star' by the Compliance Unit (Bananaman Begins), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 09:21 (eight years ago) link
it's like all interconnected, maaaan
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/08/foreign-smart-money-frets-about-turmoil-at-home-flees-plows-into-us-housing-bubble-2-thinks-its-a-safe-haven.html
― five six and (man alive), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 14:42 (eight years ago) link
here's a similarly tendentious chinese-blaming article from last year's guardian:http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/oct/26/low-interest-rates-high-house-prices-blame-chinese-wedding-planners
― transparent play for gifs (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 16:23 (eight years ago) link
Didn't miss this thread and all of the rolling we did (and may have yet to do), but I do miss tombot's images at the top.
― how's life, Tuesday, 25 August 2015 16:37 (eight years ago) link
panicked george washington had to get retired once the market went up 10,000 points after plummeting in 2008
― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 25 August 2015 17:17 (eight years ago) link
well this is something to look forward to
http://www.salon.com/2015/10/14/the_world_will_come_crashing_down_again_inside_the_global_debt_crisis_that_america_is_about_to_import/
― reggie (qualmsley), Wednesday, 14 October 2015 18:05 (eight years ago) link
that article is kind of garbled and all over the place, but some of the concerns it raises strike me as real.
― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, 14 October 2015 19:18 (eight years ago) link
frustratingly sparse information on how $5B will be cut from social security in this very long article which spends more time talking about the ceremonial aspects of the formal leadership of the House
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/us/politics/congress-and-white-house-near-deal-on-budget.html
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 27 October 2015 01:00 (eight years ago) link
It's hard to tell from the article but it seems like the proposed deal is a two-year deal. So maybe.... $5B is not actually a lot? In 2013 total SS expenditures were $1.3T. So $5B would represent.... .38% of the total cost of the program. (A third of one percent).
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 27 October 2015 01:11 (eight years ago) link
U.S. Economy Added 292,000 Jobs in December; Unemployment Rate at 5%
― Mordy, Friday, 8 January 2016 13:55 (eight years ago) link
employment to population ratio still in the shitbin:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Friday, 8 January 2016 13:56 (eight years ago) link
U6 number is 9-13% depending on the source. Not as bad as it was but not great. Wages obviously are still in the shitter.
― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 8 January 2016 15:56 (eight years ago) link
compensation looking up
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/01/good-news-labor-compensation-finally-starting-rise
― flopson, Friday, 8 January 2016 18:25 (eight years ago) link
one thing i would like to see broken down (and that i hope my intuition is wrong about): if employee health care plans are included in measures of compensation, and health care costs keep rising, won't the value of compensation rise even though paying more for the same insurance isn't good?
― flopson, Friday, 8 January 2016 18:42 (eight years ago) link
I've got a bad feeling
― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 16:11 (eight years ago) link
O took semi-victory lap on economy last night in SOTU, though he acknowledged concern and work to be done. Republican response was of course cut taxes and help small business
― curmudgeon, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 16:41 (eight years ago) link
oil dropped below $30 yesterday :O
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 16:46 (eight years ago) link
^ that would seem to signal a worldwide economy that is being rolled into the shitbin, but the financial sector either reads something else in that fact or else it hasn't got the news, yet, because they don't seem to be reacting very strongly to it.
― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:42 (eight years ago) link
oil is dropping bc there is so much of it the market is oversaturated. for countries that depend on oil revenues for survival that means they're being rolled into the shitbin but countries that are now (or soon to be) energy independent are obv making out well from the same circumstances like the US (or recently, Israel, whose future oil exports are probably the reason Turkey is willing to reconcile).
― Mordy, Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:45 (eight years ago) link
there is also the small problem of a global drop in demand. europe and the us are moribund and the brics are headed that way. copper is very low. it's not as if there's this pent-up appetite just waiting to be unleashed.
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 13 January 2016 17:50 (eight years ago) link