2008 Primaries Thread

there goes our chances for ending poverty

there they goes, indeed

edwards is out?!? well, looks like obama's getting my Pennsylvania primary vote, inevitable marital arguments be damned.

I don't give a fuck about purity, gabbhole; just having a meaningful choice.

won't everyone arrange to make Morbs' vote "meaningful"?

"meaningful vote" = "protest vote", no?

no. But if the only candidate offering CHANGE is a no-hope minor-party candidate, that's where I go out of necessity.

lyndon larouche is offering change

is paul the new larouche?

nader's the new larouche; paul's the new david duke

Yes, yes, polls are irrelevant at this point. Nevertheless, Drudge reports that Rasmussen's new numbers show McCain beating HRC (48% -- 40%) and Obama (47% -- 41%). This is not where nat'l Democratic leaders expected to be nine months out from the General Election.

http://i29.tinypic.com/e0268i.jpg

this guy? not convinced

beating mccain will have to happen in the press. it'll be extraordinarily difficult to get the major media to rethink it's strange hard-on for this ill-tempered and unreliable guy, but that's what will have to happen.

if mccain considers giving up his all war all the time stance then i will consider being afraid of him (but only if hillary is the nominee)

not to mention this coming rescission isnt going to go over well for the gop

richardson, edwards, & gore are now the endorsements to get, i guess. i expect edwards will endorse someone, not sure about gore or richardson

is everyone convinced mitt won't win california?

not exactly an endorsement, but close enough:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/30/carter-praises-obama/

"Obama's campaign has been extraordinary and titillating for me and my family," Carter told the newspaper in an interview published in its Wednesday edition.

http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/2008/images/01/30/art.carter.gi.jpg

Carter: Obama Titillates Me

SO DIDN'T NEED TO KNOW THAT, JIMMY

the whole family!

"I have titillated in my heart..."

in hopes of getting an endorsement, i think obama was pretty smart to act fast and kiss up to edwards, publically

i can't source this right now, but i think edwards informed obama before he informed clinton? fwiw

hmm

whichever way his endorsement goes, if it comes before super tuesday, it will probably be timed to get the most press coverage and influence the vote the most. i'd guess late saturday.

McCain will never win - evangelicals and racist libertarian types will stay home, suppressing Republican voter turnout. right-wing radio hates him, which is no small thing. If he's the nominee, what it will come down to is how motivated the Democratic voting base is and getting them to turnout, which I don't think is going to be a problem.

also I dunno if I missed any discussion upthread but I was feelin the major schaudenfreude for Rudy last night

is everyone convinced mitt won't win california?

i'm pretty sure that delegates are doled out by congressional district

I am already imagining Chuck Schumer's rationale for voting to confirm Rudy as McCain's AG next February.

McCain = Kerry of the GOP in function, Dean of the GOP in gaffes, except even more fracturing squared.

if mccain considers giving up his all war all the time stance then i will consider being afraid of him (but only if hillary is the nominee)

if McCain considers giving up his stance for the Iraq war in earnest, and mentions wanting to pull out, moreover apologizes for "bomb bomb bomb-bomb Iran", McCain will actually be the most relatively decent GOP candidate for president since I was born, and the idea of his election won't nearly scare the shit out of me.

Of course, if he just SAYS this to get elected, and then does the opposite -- entire possible -- then never mind.

But Shakey's right, although I wouldn't generalize that result as much, but still I think many here are NOT looking at how chaotically fucked the GOP is.

We're scared of a guy who the GOP couldn't hate even more right now, stressing "right now"

We all know McCain suffers BADLY whenever he kowtows to the party line, should that be his campaign strategy. McCain comes off as a dumb old crazy guy. Even John Howard, ex-Australia PM, would do better here than McCain. (in fact, they kinda look the same.)

And this is as good as it can get for a GOP vote. Romney has no chance either. There just isn't anyone on the GOP side who can make the GOP happy. That alone will likely sink the GOP.

I like how Drudge's percentage points barely add up to 90%.

I predict that voter turnout will be huge on both sides and that it will be a close contest.

McCain is a serious threat, but none of these candidates have run in a GE and certainly not against each other, so who knows what things will look like. This will be tight.

I do think Obama is the Dem candidate with the greatest chance of not looking like the same old same-old.

I am already imagining Chuck Schumer's rationale for voting to confirm Rudy as McCain's AG next February.

lol

McCain vs. Hillary would make for the most unlistenable campaign ever - both are horrible public speakers

Otoh the debates would probably devolve into screaming matches. Vince McMahon could be the debate moderator.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0108/The_Mudcat_lobby_Stop_Hillary.html

Edwards advisor Mudcat Saunders, tribune of the working-class rural white guy, on MSNBC not long ago:

I can't speak for John. I can say this that, you know, being a southerner, being a rural American who's been completely devastated by the trade policies of the Clintons, I'm going to do everything in my power to make sure that he does not endorse Hillary Clinton.

He says it's about NAFTA, and the 22nd Amendment.

i thought someone had said recently that hillary and mccain are actually pretty close? mccain said something like the debates would be akin to the andy griffith show

They'll probably be a lot more like A Face in the Crowd.

if it's obama vs mccain that would seem to play right into the obama's change rhetoric, except that mccain has worked together in a bipartisan fashion which would undercut undercut the other part of his message of uniting/working together/etc.

i luv me some mudcat saunders

guys, hulk hogan has endorsed barack obama kekeke

i thought someone had said recently that hillary and mccain are actually pretty close? mccain said something like the debates would be akin to the andy griffith show

"someone" = bill clinton

did you actually believe that?

McCain too short to be president (5'7")

i'm sure mccain would call hillary an osama-lover in a very friendly, affectionate way

Hogan endorsed Obama? Awesome. Our scorecard now is Huckabee/Norris, McCain/Stallone, Obama/Hulk Hogan. Who is the aging action star brave enough to stand beside HRC?

McCain will never win - evangelicals and racist libertarian types will stay home, suppressing Republican voter turnout. right-wing radio hates him, which is no small thing. If he's the nominee, what it will come down to is how motivated the Democratic voting base is and getting them to turnout, which I don't think is going to be a problem.

No no no no no no no. McCain's problem has always been getting past the primaries; he'll be very strong in a GE, where he can peel off moderate Democrats and independent voters, who are attracted to his independent/moderate/maverick image (an image shaped by McCain's real core constituency: The Nat'l Media).

McCain is winning the GOP nomination only because the field has been too fragmented up to now, allowing McCain to emerge from the pack at just the right time to appear as the real favorite, and GOP voters are going to hold their nose and vote for him. Once McCain is the nominee, look out below (see Rasmussen poll above).(n.1)

________________________________
(n.1) Sadly, Romney's chances are dwindling: I think Feb. 5 is his last stand. And his chances depend almost entirely on how the hard-right axis of talk radio, uber-conservative leaders and pundits assess McCain. If that noise machine really goes after McCain this week, maybe the base rallies behind Romney. Doubtful, but maybe.

he'll be very strong in a GE, where he can peel off moderate Democrats and independent voters

I seriously doubt McCain's ability to do this against either Hillary or Obama. Why would they go for McCain, what does he offer that the Democrats don't? Support for the war? lolz

And why should evangelicals or "OMG MEXICANS!"-types vote for him. He's been on the wrong side of all their issues. All he has going for him is his conservative military "cred"/foreign policy bonafides, which are laughably out of step with the majority of the country.

or do you think it will come down to the "well he's the only white guy on the ballot and I ain't votin for no lesbians or negros" factor

Obama Gameplanning Against McCain

No Shakey, I think it will come down to the "He's a former war hero, who was a POW for 5 years for G-d's sake, he's a moderate, straight-talker who bucks his party when he feels they're wrong: Just the kind of man who America needs now. A Daddy, but a more compassionate Daddy."

And if you think for a second that HRC can draw the right contrast on Iraq with McCain, you're mistaken (I think, tho I hope I'm wrong).

it'll be interesting to see how much the 'mccain is a moderate' canard holds up once the GE comes around, because it's not so much true. he's more moderate than bush but that doesn't make him Specter or something