Dontrelle Willis. . .

	ERA	WHIP	BAA	K/9
 April	1.29	0.83	.189	6.43
 May	2.06	1.23	.250	8.23
 June	3.32	1.34	.306	5.94

If he keeps up that WHIP & BAA, tho, his ERA's gonna be higher than 3.32.

keep in mind we're only talking abt 3 starts there dave, and this is a guy who's only given up 2 hrs all season.

as far as i can tell, he's a guy who's gotten off to 3 lighting starts, then pitched very well over a couple rough patches for the remainder of the season.

also arbitrary stat that's biased very much in my favor but illustrates my point nonetheless: in 03&04 he had 3 months w/ an era under 3.00 after june, 1 month before. (that was actually june 2003)

	ERA	WHIP	BAA	K/9
 April	1.29	0.83	.189	6.43
 May	2.06	1.23	.250	8.23
 June	1.91	1.23	.273	6.04

And another complete game shutout. And one run over his last 23 innings.

Dontrelle Willis Career ERA:
Pre-Allstar 2.64
Post-Allstar 4.30

and that pre/post all-star split everyone just loves to throw around is pretty much entirely a result of his first season; in fact, he you could easily argue he pitched BETTER in the second half last year.

A) He's a proven quick starter
B) He pitches in a pitchers' park (#5 in the league according to ESPN's ballpark adjustments)
C) His hot start can be easily attributed to 9 of his first 10 starts taking place in the top 5 rated pitchers' parks.
D) 4.08 LUCK

He's a great pitcher and he's improved quite a bit in a couple key areas (pitches/batter faced, groundballs vs. flyballs) but just wait until he goes out on the road some more*.

*unless that's what you're referring to as "regression".

Me: Wow he's pitching great!
Gyg: He's pitching at home soon he'll come back to reality.

Me (couple of weeks later): He's still pitching pretty great!
Gyg: Yeah, but he'll come back to reality soon enough.

Gyg (pointing at mid-June stats): Look he's totally fucking up!

Me (at ACTUAL end of June): Um no he still looks pretty good.
Gyg: Yeah, but he'll fuck after the All Star break. He always does.

What do you have against the guy? I can't imagine anyone I'd rather see doing well than Willis. He's pure likeability!

I realize there is a touchy significance behind the marketing of Dontrelle as he is one of the few young black american stars in the game while there is a true void in that which used to be plentiful and famously-celebrated. That spin may be at work and I respect that but I'm skeptical about the concept of affirmitive active marketing in baseball, a sport recognized today in its racial diversity.

xpost to Gear!: yeah! including starts in such cozy spots such as Dodger Stadium and RFK which are the #3 and #1 pitchers' parks according to ballpark adjustments.

and do you seriously not think it's vitally important to market young black ballplayers?

I remember that being a problem for Willis last year - he was telegraphing pitches, pitching really erratically out of the stretch, and having a hard time stranding runners. I realize his 2005 HR rate is a huge outlier, but his BABIP isn't - and his K/BB and G/F ratios are certainly improving.

I'm probably biased, since he's the only thing keeping my pitching staff afloat at this point, but I just don't think he's gonna come crashing down to 2004 levels anytime soon.

meanwhile webb is looking like a super-lowe. 4.26 g/f (!!) and nearly 7 k's/9ip.

at the same time, carpenter kinda deserves the attention.

Month ERA  WHIP
April 1.29 0.83
May   2.06 1.23
June  2.62 1.30
July  7.58 1.37

Hahaha I'm sorry. I would totally do this, but it's an evening game and I can't swing it.

willis has totally gone to shit. maybe it is fatigue!

If Clemens continue to perform as he has, I don't care who wins the NL Cy; anyone with eyes will know who the best pitcher was. Considering the era (as well as the ERA), he's threatening to better Gibson in '68, at age 43 to Bob G's 32.

and tonight he's back! (technical difficulties)