2008 Primaries Thread

Yeah, McCain has some vulnerabilities, but if he's the GOP nominee, I think he wins the GE.

MITTMENTUM:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/29/us/florida_337_7.jpg

Go Huckabee! Sow the seeds of discord and confusion! Suffer the knuckle draggers to come unto thee. Feed the multitudes upon nothing but a couple of crusts and a rancid fish. Fear not, for the prayers of many ride with you.

Before primary season I was convinced that Senator McCain would be unbeatable in the general election but the more I think about some of the possible Democratic tickets (e.g. Senator Obama/Senator Hagel, Senator Clinton/Wes Clark ticket or hell, Mayor Bloomberg/Senator Hagel) the less I’m convinced.

He's not unbeatable, but he'll be the prohibitive favorite, esp. against HRC.

Yeah I'm by no mean sure he could win, he's just the only guy on the GOP side that I think is capable of winning.

As I've said, HRC v. McCain pits a candidate who will energize her opposition and alienate broad swaths of voters v. a candidate who will hold his voting block (for fear of an HRC win) and peel off independents and moderate Democratic votes.

Not a good dynamic.

Senator Clinton not being able to win against Senator McCain in the general election is a Rovian falsehood, one that I’m surprised so many Democrats have bought into.

Any Democrat can run and win without an independent majority in this election. I have every reason to believe at risk states (e.g. Ohio, Minnesota, Florida) will have record Democratic turnout making independents a moot point.

I’d be a bit more worried about Senator Obama as we have yet to see him campaign on policy but I’m still fairly confident Democrats will rally around whomever in big numbers.

"Mr. Obama has lined up support from unions representing plumbers and pipefitters"

huhuhuh

As I've said, HRC v. McCain pits a candidate who will energize her opposition and alienate broad swaths of voters v. a candidate who will hold his voting block (for fear of an HRC win) and peel off independents and moderate Democratic votes.

I’d agree if the Republicans were inspired by any of their candidates and thus far they have not.

Too much voting. Too many typos. Too much drinking.

Wait and see.

(xp)

"Could you turn the sign the right way, please?"

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/29/us/clinton_337.2.jpg

ned i'm surprised you haven't started a "post pictures of upside down signs" thread

This is more my speed:

STARSBUCK COFFEE

lol "me ball sack" thx ned

Go McCain, beat Mittens. Still think Mitt is a stronger candidate in the GE

daria you are going against a whole year of polls telling you otherwise, fyi

Go McCain, beat Mittens. Still think Mitt is a stronger candidate in the GE

Yes, but you think HRC is a stronger candidate than Obama. . .

Uggggh. Daria gets her wish: McCain wins Florida.

I sure hope you're right about him being a weak GE candidate.

I am curious what Karl Rove’s heir apparents, Mark Penn and David Axelrod would do to beat Senator McCain. If their reading this, I suggest questioning the legality of a John McCain presidency. Should those in Panama Canal Zone be considered ‘natural born’?

daria you are going against a whole year of polls telling you otherwise, fyi

Those polls are meaningless at this point.

"Yeah, I'm the man."

http://www.latimes.com/media/alternatethumbnails/photo/2008-01/34997982-29171041.jpg

goodman mccain polled ahead of every single candidate in either party so i dont get how they are irrelevant

FOX, CNN, and, lol, The Corner have declared McCain the winner.

oh lord help us if its McCain-Clinton in a couple of months.

It'd already been called for McCain when I wrote that, I think.
I know what the polls say, maybe part of it is that when I look at these guys and think Mitt is clearly the least insane, but then if he also has support of the GOP base much more than McCain does, that's trouble. The guy has tons of $$$$ and that goes a long way too.. also he is running against Washington now as a fresh face..

The Corner tolls its chimes of doom:

So it is over. Finished. In November, we'll be sending out our most liberal, least trustworthy candidate vs. to take on Hillary Clinton—perhaps not more liberal than Barack Obama, but certainly far less trustworthy.

And the worst part for the Right is that McCain will have won the nomination while ignoring, insulting and, as of this weekend, shamelessly lying about conservatives and conservatism

Want more depressing rumors, from the left? I've heard that the reason that so many Democratic Representatives and Senators endorsed Obama is that internal Democratic polling shows McCain beats either Obama or HRC in the GE, so those on the Hill are now worried about how HRC -- one of the most polarizing political figures in the country -- will damage the party downballot, causing Democrats to lose seats in both Houses.

Maybe it won't be that bad, but there's a bit of panic setting in. Look, as I said, I think McCain has vulnerabilities -- he's wrong on the war ("We should stay in Iraq 100 years"), he's overly-hawkish on Iran ("Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb-bomb Iran"), he is underinformed on the economy ("Spending cuts stimulate GDP," "Sen. Phil Gramm is my key economic advisor") and lacks an economic agenda -- but he will be the favorite in a GE, and we've got an uphill battle to beat him.

based on informal polling of the office, McCain is a no-question vote if he's up against Hillary, but Obama would make them think twice and might even get their vote. This is from the dubya-hating lifelong conservative crowd, not the 31%, btw.

It's not even February yet.

I think Obama is definitely the right match-up against McCain. He's got the generational-divide thing going, he can make a clean debate about the Iraq War, and he can rally the troops (while McCain, at his best, isn't very inspirational (he is folksy/funny, tho).

The downside fear is that Hispanics will flock to the GOP, especially with McCain being a moderate on immigration, and that will severely damage the Democratic coalition. If that's so, it's a pretty bleak picture, no matter how you look at it.

Well, that's true, Ned. A lot can change.

a McCain-Obama race may be the dullest ever. Even bearing in mind how dirty McCain's supporters have been here -- as an indie voter I got several calls from McCain's camp, using gay baiting and immigrant hating as hooks -- I can't imagine how they'd insult each other in the general election.

I think a lot will change.

McCain's robocalls used immigrant-bashing? That's odd, given his moderate stance on immigration.

Guys, no Democrat has even gone after McCain yet. He's totally untested in a two-party matchup. Give it time.

And honestly, I don't know who's stronger, but I really don't want to have to listen to Mitt fucking Romney for another 10 months.

I think a lot will change.

I'm curious: What do you think will change? (Obv., I'm keeping in mind that no-one can account for unanticipated events, e.g., OBL is caught, Iraq spirals into full civil-war, gas prices climb to $130/barrell, etc.)

To say nothing of the fact that a lot of the right's base will say nicer things about Obama than McCain at this point.

I really don't want to have to listen to Mitt fucking Romney for another 10 months.

I'll take Romney's Max Headroom imitation any day of the week over McCain's nails-on-the-blackboard trademark line, "My friend(s)".

But Mitt's basically the boss from Office Space.

WHOA. McCain's victory necktie = FAGGIEST EVER

What do you think will change?

Let's just say that a slew of those 'unanticipated' events you mention don't deserve that qualifier. No predictions, though, just hunches.

This is going to be a long, long year.

But Mitt's basically the boss from Office Space.

Haha. That's far more entertaining than McCain will be.

Mr. Giuliani will endorse Mr. McCain tomorrow.

I know this is going to sound naive, and I can't really justify it, but Romney seems to have run an entire campaign on the basis of unabashed lying, and it makes me want to strangle baby goats. Not to be all "McCain is so truthful," Huckabee is being at least as straightforward as McCain, but Romney just fills me with anger.

I was probably more willing to tolerate unabashed lying 8 years ago.

I wonder where Pat Robertson will wind up.

spread-eagled naked on the bed.