hall of fame, next vote...

Also, yes, Frank Robinson is an Oriole to me, although that's largely because he was an Oriole when I started watching baseball. If I were five to ten years older, I might think differently (or might not).

what team would you choose for tlr?

Foam dome

LaRussa, I don't think you can--he's definitely a case where I agree with having no affiliation. (On a personal level, I know I most liked hating him as an A.)

If Maddux feels special gratitude towards the Cubs, that's fine. But if I were a Braves fan, I wouldn't like it.

― clemenza, Thursday, January 23, 2014 7:25 PM (1 hour ago)

I would have preferred Braves just for the Cox/Glav/Mad Dog induction solidarity, but I'm ok with his choice and his rationale. And I'm much less a Braves homer than I was this time last year.

fuck the braves imo

i still ride for 90s braves so im shook about this tbh

it's cool, i'm sure terry pendleton will go in as a brave

You're right that Maddux spent less than half his career with the Braves--11 seasons with, 12 seasons elsewhere. He did pitch more than half his innings with the Braves, though (2,526.2 - 2,481.2), and of course won more than half his games there (194 - 161).

"those weren't even [Frank Robinson's] best six years! but it still made sense."

Uh his first year with them he was a Triple Crown MVP winner and they won their first World Series. I'd say it makes sense.

I find it likewise puzzling that Maddux isn't going in with anything but the screamin Indian, but otherwise I'm with balls.

Didn't even realize that Frank Robbie played for anyone else BUT the O's! I'm also continually surprised whenever I re-learn, every few years, that he also managed the Giants.

...and Indians (first black mgr)

Stop blowing my mind, man.

I only saw him play (in the flesh) for the Dodgers! (1972)

"those weren't even [Frank Robinson's] best six years! but it still made sense."

Uh his first year with them he was a Triple Crown MVP winner and they won their first World Series. I'd say it makes sense.

― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, January 24, 2014 9:05 AM (10 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i... said it made sense

they still weren't his best years

Someone on High Heat Stats calculated harmonic-mean WARs for notable two-league players, and Frank was #1 by a comfortable margin (50.8, more than 10 games ahead of George Davis at #2). Beltran sits at #6 right now (31.4), Beltre at #7 (31.3).

Babe Ruth played for the Braves!

If I'm calculating correctly, Ruth's Harmonic WAR was 0.4--less than full game. He compiled a WAR of 163 in the AL, 0.2 with the Braves. (If that's what your post refers to--I can't tell.)

"frank robinson played six seasons for the orioles and went in as an O, there was never really any question about it."

Yeah that was a dumb trade. Robinson riding shotgun on the early Big Red Machine years 69-71 would have been interesting if it didn't happen. It would have probably kept Pete Rose at second for a larger part of his career.

Clemens elected to (Red Sox) HOF

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10407217/roger-clemens-nomar-garciaparra-pedro-martinez-joe-castiglione-selected-boston-red-sox-hall-fame

I'm just going to assume that Bernie Carbo's in there.

Joe Torre before he was a genius

http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2014/07/27/torre-prior-to-the-pedestal/

For anyone interested in watching (maybe it's on TV, too, I don't know):

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6003532/v34683791/national-baseball-hall-of-fame-ceremonies

I was only interested in Maddux's speech--think I heard him speak about 67 words during his career, commercials included--so I'm glad he was first. Still an enigma. Nice that he mentioned all his catchers.

Most distinguished looking old guy: Juan Marichal.
Morphing into the Big Lebowski: Robin Yount.

I stuck around for Cox's speech. He had an anecdote about Glavine, then one about Maddux. The Glavine story was pretty good. The Maddux story was a mess--not very funny, and he kept losing his place. Maddux is supposed to be an exceptionally funny guy, but he didn't really show that side in his own speech. I'd like to think he sidled up to Cox on the podium and said something like, "Jesus, Skip, what the fuck was that all about?"

The Maddux story was a mess--not very funny, and he kept losing his place. - was he drunk?

Just age, I assume--73 now. (MLB has a clip of the Glavine story up, but not the Maddux.)

Don't think anyone's going to mistake Maddux for a batboy with that double chin he's got going on.

la russa's speech was typical awkward coach with a lot of sad laughter and he managed to convince me he's been having marital problems for years

Nate Silver: Mussina hurt most by rule changes

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-players-will-be-most-affected-by-the-hall-of-fames-new-rules/

Revived for general purposes. Very quick list from the active WAR leaders--add/delete/adjust as needed. (Trying to guess actual voting; omitting anyone with a PED problem.)

Safe: Pujols, Jeter, Ichiro, Rivera
Probably safe too, but a half-notch lower on the rung: Cabrera, Halladay
Close to safe: Beltre, Mauer, Cano, Verlander
Very good bet: Felix
Getting stronger: Votto, Wright, Longoria
Maybe: Beltran, Helton, Pedroia
Early jump: Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Strasburg, McCutcheon

That's only 21 names--historically, there are about 30 HOF-bound players active in a given year. As there would be this year without PEDs.

― clemenza, Monday, August 19, 2013 2:51 PM (2 years ago)

update!

safe: pujols, ichiro, cabrera, beltre
close to safe: trout, kershaw,
good bets: mauer, cano, beltran, felix,
needs a good second half: votto, wright, grienke, longoria, posey, goldschmidt, scherzer, price, arrieta, lester
borderline: utley, beltran
slipping: teixiera, sabathia, tulowitzki, verlander
rising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburg
wild card: ortiz

take that second beltran out of borderline

i'd demote mauer. i mean hey, i'd vote for him just based off of his great run while he was catching, but i think the lackluster production in the the last few years, particularly when he's playing at 1B/DH, will be enough to put him in Borderline for a lot of voters.

kinda wondering about pedroia and kinsler at this point, those dudes are neck-and-neck in WAR and got some years left. this season they've both got a WAR around 2.0 already.

love mauer but he feels like mattingly or will clark, those guys were surefire during their peaks but then fell off and not as badly as mauer has. the fact he was a catcher during his peak would help a bit i think but i don't know...

i think the only way mauer would get in is if he had a couple of unexpected 6+ WAR seasons over the next few years to top his career off.it's not really fair or logical but i don't see him getting in based solely off of his first 10 years, as impressive as they were.

yeah i wasn't sure whether to put mauer under good bet or slipping

kinsler i'm not sure had a high enough peak. even if he somehow puts up another 20 WAR over the next 6-7 years, you're still talking about a guy with a 35-win 7-year peak
pedroia's got the advantage of a better peak and the rings, i should have had him under "needs a good second half" maybe

Mauer's chances ended w/ his catching career

arrieta would have to be literally this dominant for a minimum of the next like 6 years? don't see it

yeah the only reason i threw him on there was because david schoenfield had an article about him today, which prompted this revive. i don't really see it either, unless like you said he continues to dominate for at least another 5-6 years. he's already 30

trout and kershaw i'm pretty sure could die tragically tomorrow and both make a run at the first ballot

you have to have 10 seasons; not sure if that's been waived for anyone (Addie Joss?)

didn't know about the 10-year rule!

Joss did get in w/ 9 seasons (died at 31 of tb)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addie_Joss#Recognition

i forgot how young giancarlo stanton is, too. he probably needs to be on the board somewhere

Schoenfield made an interesting case for Arrieta. Sure, he's only 1.5 seasons into the 7-8 year peak that he needs, so it's all just fortune telling at this point, but there is an impressive list of pitchers who didn't dominate until they hit their 30's and went on to make the HOF.

Unless a bunch of writers won't vote for Ortiz because of his 2003 drug tests (which might very well happen), I don't see how he isn't a shoo-in at this point.

Mauer's drop-off is surprising. Three years ago he was a no-brainer for me, I figured he's be piling up a few more .400 OBP seasons and remaining marginally productive for a few years after that, but he's fallen off a cliff.

Halladay already seems like ancient history. If Schilling and Mussina can't get close then I'm not sure what it'll take for Doc. Maybe voter attitudes are changing, with "low win" pitchers like Smoltz and Pedro getting in easily.

rising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburg

Strasburg has no chance (not dominant enough, too injury-prone). It's way too early to say with Harper, as of right now he's had one season + one month of Bonds-ian numbers, and a few years of of ups and downs. I'd put my money on Cutch and Madbum though. If Bumgarner wins another championship he can probably Pettitte his way into the HOF, even if his career numbers/WAR aren't as dominant as his contemporaries.

you had me worried for a second that Pettitte was in already! He shouldn't get in.

Strasburg has no chance RIGHT NOW, I'd say, not that it looks probable.

ortiz may be helped by the postseason success. he's definitely no shoo-in, though -- his career OPS+ of 140 puts him at 76th all-time, before you even get to the fact that he doesn't play defense. plus, it's hard to make the case that he should be in the hall if a clearly superior DH (martinez) still isn't in

strasburg's 27! and seems to be figuring things out

I meant that Bumgarner's HOF case will be a lot like Pettitte's.

Strasburg has no chance right now, and I can't see a plausible path to get him there.

plus, it's hard to make the case that he should be in the hall if a clearly superior DH (martinez) still isn't in

But it's not either/or -- they should both be in. Edgar not getting voted in isn't a reason to not support Ortiz getting voted in.

i refuse to cast my imaginary vote for Ortiz until Edgar gets in.