2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

It's not an *if* regarding the inevitable facelift and/or death of the Republican party in our lifetime. It's when.

It will most likely be a face-lift, and it will have to be more Libertarian leaning for the Republican party to survive. I truly believe McCain wanted this, but he wasn't going to win this year on that idea, apparently. Hence Palin.

The Republicans' most loyal voting block is literally dying off, yet they continue to pander to the old. The problem for the Republicans here is: now the Baby Boomers are the New Old.. and Baby Boomers are seemingly less Republican than their previous generation.

Shakey, I always liked debating them, 'cause the center of their political sense was solidly 'conservative' in an anti-utopian, pragmatic way and they tended to eschew hard-ideology.

and Baby Boomers are seemingly less Republican than their previous generation.

except for this guy:

http://www.kentuckyderby.info/images/dennis-hopper.jpg

The country needs a sensible 'liberal' (in the original sense) party for balance but I don't really see it anywhere. The Libertarians are too purist, The Republicans talk a C- talk, but when it come down to it, they just want corporate donations from a corporate class who is as scared of genuinely free-trade as they probably should be and the image of the Democratic party's attatchment to free-speech/civil rights has been marred by much of their going along too easily in the 'War on Terror' and things like H. R. Clinton's co-sponsoring a bill to ban flag-burning.

My boss put it nicely at the Dem Convention: there are Pat Roberts Republicans, and Pat Robertson Republicans. We can work with the former, not so much the latter.

My Pat Roberts Republican in-laws in MI are voting Obama; their Pat Roberts Republican friends are organizing for Obama in MI.

"why-im-voting-4-obama-790983.JPG"
http://aquabotic.com/uploaded_images/why-im-voting-4-obama-790983.JPG

ok i need to know the genesis of that photo

god made it

My dad is a liberal Republican who has been championing Obama since the primaries; he's been regularly donating money to his campaign since its inception.

(He also hasn't voted for a Republican candidate since 1988 but that's just a detail.)

R2000: O 48-44
Rasmussen: O 49-47
Diageo: O 48-42
Gallup: O 47-44

"Palin: America Could Be Headed to Another “Depression” Without Economic Solution"

perceptive

well, now what? the polling seems to have stabilized into a narrow but substantial Obama win. i'm betting on six more weeks of alternating ridiculousness and boredom and faux-outrage but not much poll movement.

i was way wrong about Palin, btw. if anyone remembers.

Not even Secretary Paulson says the $700bn is certain to solve the problem. It seems to be a number they plucked out of the air, based on vague hope, political calculation and WAG-work.

xpost

goole, remind us

Gabb, just out of curiosity, how's McCain polling in Arizona?

i thought she would be a joke w/in 48 hours. it took a little longer, but they got a shitload of money and base excitement out of it.

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/080317/080317-bernanke-hmed-11a.hmedium.jpg

pssst whats a number thats like a trillion but doesnt really sound thaaat big?

uh i dunno... seven hundred billion?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/az/08-az-pres-ge-mvo.php

it's possible AZ would be competitive if McCain were not from there. in another cycle or two, it may be.

goole, we have debates and october surprises to go

i didn't expect McCain to get as much of a bounce as he did from Palin/the convention, but my prognostication that she would do nothing to help, and a little to harm, in particular given that she does nothing to convince people that McCain is going to help the economy, seems to have been borne out in the longer-term, if aided a bit by the market

i wonder how mccain would be performing given the current economic sitch if he had chosen mittmentum

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Bill_Clinton_Will_respect_Jewish_holidays_then_hustle_up__cracker_vote_in_Florida.html?showall

It's a damned if they do or don't think with Palin.

Palin's going to be a boring ninja-of-the-obvious from here on out. I think the Biden/Palin debate will be far more boring and less exciting than people and the press anticipate.

People should really be geared up for this Friday's debate though. That's the more interesting and obviously more important event.

I'm glad that things are looking up, if they are.

You people are right, in the longer run Palin may not have been good for the GOP.

I need to find a viewing spot for Friday's debate.The packed screening room full of hollering drunks from four years ago(Sabala's) has been replaced by a bar.

...where there will be no hollering drunks at all, of course.

This is Ole Miss, and the debate starts here.

Don't know why I think this tagline on the debate site is so funny.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/us/politics/24groups.html

Linking Obama to Kwame Kilpatrick is such an obvious race play, especially in suburban Detroit. Yet:

Todd Zirkle, the executive director of Freedom’s Defense Fund, said race had “zero” to do with the spots. “That’s the standard retort when you want to say ‘Don’t listen to these people,’ ” Mr. Zirkle said.

He said the group’s intention was to show Mr. Obama’s affiliations — although Mr. Obama and Mr. Kilpatrick were never known to be close.

Who are these people and what are they trying to do to my home state?!

http://www.newseum.org/images/news/MER070924_md.jpg

This is Ole Miss, and the debate starts here.

todd zirkle? wonder if that's tony zirkle's brother

Kilpatrick is a criminal, and a poor mayor to boot. Suburban whiteys despise him. He even traded shots w/ Obama previously:

http://teamowens313.wordpress.com/2007/05/10/detroit-mayor-kilpatrick-squares-off-with-sen-barack-obama/

Here is the spot btw

Calling them "friends" is pretty pathetic.

goole, we have debates and october surprises to go

debates don't move anything more than a point, we've already seen maliki agree with obama and raids into pakistan + a major financial meltdown...

well if yr looking for some instant palin metrics mccain polled worse after both conventions and their bounces than before

aaaand palin has the worse favorability rating of the four candidates

debates never move things very much - they're just media fodder for a couple cycles, maybe source of a couple good zingers that will last as comedic punchlines for a bit longer ("you're no Jack Kennedy", "there you go again", "LOCKBOX" etc.)

"SIGH"

debates don't move anything more than a point

uh, ok, if you say so. in a year when 2/3 of the country watched one or more conventions i think all bets are off.

we've already seen maliki agree with obama and raids into pakistan + a major financial meltdown...

there's lots of stuff that could happen in the next month. like this, for instance - http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/24/mccain-suspends-campaign-wants-debate-postponed/

i guess mccain's afraid of the election moving a point

Fox/Opinion Dynamics: Obama 45, McCain 39

haha

McCain really fucked up going after the press so viciously, this whole boondoggle with Palin has definitely contributed to her ratings dropping.

Shakey, you cite one example though where a debate destroyed a candidate (Carter) though.

there's lots of stuff that could happen in the next month. like this, for instance - http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/24/mccain-suspends-campaign-wants-debate-postponed/

WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFff

i think everyones going to see it as really transparent--when youre on top in the campaign its a good move to "suspend" it id think, but when youre losing it seems like youre calling a time out to nurse your wounds

You gotta be kidding me.

mccain, flailing

John McCain suspends campaigning to work on economy, requests postponing Friday debate; asks Obama do the same.

!!

xxxp

of course if the Friday debate is postponed, then we may have to push back Palin's debate next Thursday. to, say, Friday? when fewer people will watch? counter-argument: McCain wants to push his debate back to get a bigger audience? real story: McCain knows that he's dead in the water with the economic situation and desperately needs to do something - anything - to gain some credibility on the issue?

of course, John McCain, who called his wife a 'cunt' when she joked affectionately about his thinning hair, could not possible be afraid of this

oh I think Carter lost to Reagan for a lot of other reasons besides the debate

x-post

if im obama i release a statement that says "hey, i can campaign and fix the economy at the same time, but maybe thats because im only 47 and im a genius"

big thing here is congress will not pass the bailout w/o bipartisan (and both pres candidates) support for fear of having their votes used against them in the election

max ftw