2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

sorry, Tracer, if 'deej' has a personal claim on my time, i don't ask 'how long'

glad this thread is getting back to what made it so good in the first place

condescending douchebaggery

^^^ the cornerstone of politics

yes!

HIGH FIVES

attention whore trolls 1, gabbneb 0

for those interested in the substance of deej's block quote, here's the later post from the internally-cited blog he missed - http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/09/bailout_backlash.php - and this AM brings word from Reid that he has counted McCain as a yes vote

Pew says you gotta poll cellphones

Survey USA has McCain in KS by only 12! Yes we can?

suggest bans: attention whore trolls 0, gabbneb 1

Chris Rock on Letterman, booked to immediately follow Clinton, offering up his response

we're not gonna win KS

I know, but if things are moving our way here, that's a good sign for other local places (we're pretty similar to the parts of CO that are rough for Obama).

yeah, CO polls are solidifying for Obama. he's basically won (the election) already if the polls stay the same.

MO is possible but will require huge STL turnout

i thought i had posted it already, but SUSA had Obama only 2 pts back in Marilyn Musgrave's district

i predict obama outperforms polls by 1.5%

I doubt MO will go blue; southern MO is like Appalachia. But northern MO is like IL and IA, and KC and STL could turn out big. I'm glad 271 doesn't turn on it.

yeah, Musgrave's district is really similar to KS demographically, at least KS east of Lawrence. But in CO the ground game is intense.

er west of Lawrence

in Ohio, SUSA has Obama winning the 1st CD (Cincy burbs, leans GOP, 28% black, repped by Steve Chabot (R), won by Bush) 52-43, and back 2 in Ralph Regula(R)'s Canton-area/amish country Reagan-Dem/Bush-won 16th district, but down 20 points in Southern, Jean Schmidt(R)-repped Ohio-2

<a href="http://www.alaskadispatch.com/tundra-talk/1-talk-of-the-tundra/147-alaska-ags-ill-fated-experiment-with-public-service-in-wake-of-troopergate.html";>Is McCain colluding with criminal behavior in Alaska?</a>

The more I look at this, the more I begin to see that what I have long despised about Nixon and Cheney and now Palin, the kind of thing which is eating away like a cancer on McCain's campaign, is their cowardice. Instead of braving the issues and the public and the press, they vie for control, secrecy, spin. This, THIS is patriotism? Degrading the standards of this Republic while noisily and distractingly waving a flag? That's just demagoguery and demagoguery in the service of some of the least savory interests in the land. It's sad to see McCain tangled up in it. Vanity and over-weening ambition laying low someone who once might have had something of real value to offer.

I doubt MO will go blue; southern MO is like Appalachia. But northern MO is like IL and IA, and KC and STL could turn out big. I'm glad 271 doesn't turn on it.

yeah, so do I, and I expect him to lose much or all of Northern MO ('Little Dixie', certainly), but it's not impossible that STL and KC turnout put him over the top anyway. I still think it might have been a good idea to spend part of a summer weekend at Lake of the Ozarks, though the campaign seems pretty shy about putting him into any rural Southern whitey areas, and maybe with reason, plus it might not scored high on his authenticity-meter.

i wouldn't wish Lake of the Ozarks on anyone--even McCain or Palin

ok, he shoulda sipped some chardonnay in Hermann

haha yes, or Boonville

Trying to picture Obama riding go-carts at LotO.

or scoring meth in Joplin

Could someone explain how Iowa went from hard-red to hard-blue in the election predictions in 4 years?

I know Iowa were the first to big-up Obama this year, but Iowa's always the first caucus anyway. Could someone near or in Iowa explain what happened in 4 years there?

Earnest question. thx!

Gore won Ohio-1, actually

RE: Missouri Meth

Or in Farmington.

I had hopes for Missouri, but isn't he throwing in the towel to a certain extent, since he's dramatically scaling up advertising in FL, CO, NV and PA while cutting back in MO?

Digby's dreaming, by the way

don't think his scenario is gonna come to pass, Republicans wanna be seen as proactive in this, not obstructionist.

Iowa wasn't hard-red - Kerry lost by 10,000 votes, less than the third-party vote. Obama is doing well there because he comes from the state next door, which ships a lot of people in, and because he's spent so much time on the ground.

2004 was the first time Iowa had gone red since Reagan in 1984, so 2004 was the anomaly. That's not a complete answer, but it's a start.

It's sad to see McCain tangled up in it.

It's delightful to see McCain tangled up in it. I don't buy this fallen angel hypothesis. Where's the evidence that McCain has ever been, as a politician, anything but a calculating power-broker?

isn't he throwing in the towel to a certain extent, since he's dramatically scaling up advertising in FL, CO, NV and PA while cutting back in MO?

MO has always been winnable on the ground only, so ad time isn't going to do much. but he is probably more likely to win all of those states than MO, at which point MO is moot, so it's not throwing in the tool as much as wisely allocating resources.

what Tracer said. I've never been convinced by anything McCain's done or said that he has any actual values/standards/moral compass whatsoever.

Not that this will matter, but I'm going to be in STL after the election (to be in the Glenn Branca Symphony 13 thing there on 11/13) I'll let you know what the MO ground says there, if someone here doesn't say it first.

(Granted, from what I understand, STL != KC != rest of Missouri.)

And thank you guys for the Iowa clarification. duh, I shoulda known.

You can say that again. I grew up an hour south of St. Louis and there were confederate flags all over the place.

xpost

Shakey and Tracer, that post is more my 'public persona' speaking. As my few Republican acquaintances get more and more shrill, I find the best way to deal with them is basically to offer my commiseration especially as pre-2000, he may have been a 'calculating power-broker' but by the standards of Congress, he wasn't a particularly venal one and he has seriously dropped any pretenses of being bi-partisan, appealing to the center or conducting this campaign with dignity and honor.

I can accept Michael's point; in 2000 I dismissed McCain as as honorable hothead. At the same time, his "shift" to the right was inevitable – he needed it to get those fundies.

But lachrymose columns mourning the death of Avenging Angel McCain are best left to the likes of Joe Klein.

Missouri was a slave state. One of the stars on the Confederate flag denotes Missouri.

Something I had to keep reminding the Show-Meers who teased Arkansas while I went to school up there.

Obama is tied among young people in Oklahoma, notably not a slave state, which is better than he's doing among young people in the Deep South.

the new swing states he's putting into play - Colorado, Virginia, Indiana, etc. - are also states where his performance among young people outpaces his performance in even more solidly blue states

just the word "oklahoma" fills me with grinding despair

http://www.willrogers.com/new/articles/WRD_2007/Dog_Iron_Days/Wagon-Oologah.jpg

surrey with the friiiiiiiinge on toooooop