2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

ice craem's map requires Obama to lose an 84% state while winning 81, 79, 75 and 65% states
jaymc's scenario requires Obama to win a 49% state (which may not reflect new-voter registration trends) and a 65% state while losing 75 and 79% states

neither is all that plausible, but jaymc's is much moreso

― gabbneb, Tuesday, September 23, 2008 12:51 PM (15 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

hmmm not so sure gabbs - the first scenario only requires movement from one state while the second requires three - of course the real probabilities can prob only be understood w/more detailed demographic/similarity etc info

should be mentioned that romney swung michigan his way w/a last minute full on charm/pandering offensive - promising to save the auto industry goes a long way there and mccain certainly isnt abaove any sort of ridiculousness

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/12th-amendment-update-tie-probability.html

btw their probability of a tie has gone from 3% to 1% since that post was made

it probably still leaves Dems with the upper hand

― gabbneb, Tuesday, September 23, 2008 11:53 AM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

I'm sure they'll all vote their consciences.

xpost

― Michael White, Tuesday, September 23, 2008 11:54 AM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

That's so much better when it's not an xpost

the first scenario only requires movement from one state while the second requires three - of course the real probabilities can prob only be understood w/more detailed demographic/similarity etc info

the first scenario requires McCain to win one State where he has never polled above 46%, while the second requires him to win two states where he has polled at or above 47% eight (CO) and 24 (VA) times

ur gay

the second scenario requires Obama to hold a State that Kerry won and win States that Kerry lost by 20,000 (where the Dem registration advantage this year is about 50,000), 10,000 and 6,000 votes, respectively.

the first scenario requires McCain to win a State that Bush lost by 165,000 votes.

That 538 post should put to rest the notion that ice craem's scenario is more plausible than mine.

o yes 538 is god - u are both suggest banned

lol

and btw that post is completely out of date

Correction: the second scenario requires Obama to hold lose a State that Kerry won by 9,000 votes and win States that Kerry lost by 20,000 (where the Dem registration advantage this year is about 50,000), 10,000 and 6,000 votes, respectively.

i mean whatever im predicting an obama landslide anyway

http://i35.tinypic.com/5n3eo0.jpg

Correction Correction: the second scenario requires Obama to hold lose a State that Kerry won by 9,000 votes and win States that Kerry lost by 20,000 (where the Dem registration advantage this year is about 50,000), 10,000 and 6,000 votes, respectively.

Clinton added that voters would think: "I like that little Down syndrome kid. One of them lives down the street." -- on Sarah Palin's popularity.

I come from Arkansas.
I get why she's hot out there,
why she's doing well.

People look at her,
and they say: All those kids.
Something that happens in
everybody's family.

I'm glad she loves her daughter
and she's not ashamed of her. Glad
that girl's going around
with her boyfriend.
Glad they're going to get married.

I like that little Down syndrome kid.
One of them lives down the street.
They're wonderful children.
They're wonderful people.

And I like the idea that
this guy does those long-distance
races. Stayed in the race for
500 miles with a broken arm.

My kind of guy.

xpost "i loved that show life goes on!"

everyone wants to sit on wilfred brimleys lap and eat hard candy, i come from arkansas.

not ready for prime time

so did anyone watch the Simmering Lobster of Hope on "Letterman" and "The View"?

caught a little bit of Letterman

"the Clinton Global Initiative blah blah blah ..... contributing to the crisis was the invention of a new type of riskier mortgage bundling called derivatives blah blah blah ... "

than I changed channels

i've seen chris rock's response! pretty funny.

Chris sits and exclaims, "I hope you don't expect me to be that smart! I thought I was watching Charlie Rose." Chris admits to not being all that smart and when he finds himself surrounded by people like Bill Clinton, he always tries to steer the conversation to sports.
Still talking about the Bill Clinton segment, Chris asks, "And did you notice how he couldn't bring himself to say ‘Barack Obama'? Hillary ain't running! Hillary lost!" I laughed, as I thought the same thing. What does Chris think of Sarah Palin? He's a bit confused how and why a governor of Alaska is a qualification to be Vice President. Chris exclaims, "There are pictures of her holding the head of a bloody moose that she shot! Michael Vick is saying, ‘Why am I in jail?!'"

there oughta be rules about linking to the same blog in the same day but the press is LOL GOING TO WARRRR with camp mccain over access to palin. (via ambinder)

lolz:

Who blinks first? UPDATE: A CNN pool producer was allowed into a camera spray of Gov. Palin's meeting with Hamid Karzai for all of 29 seconds. No other pencils, as they call them, were allowed in.

Now -- in an effort to build some good will, the McCain campaign has scheduled a press conference this afternoon -- his first since August 13.

Not to be outdone, Barack Obama, in Tampa, Florida for debate prep, will also take some Q and As.

juan cole gives up the o_O

I have concluded that Americans, who pretend in public to be straitlaced, are in fact rabid masochists addicted to whips, black leather and the application of fists. It turns out that large numbers of people throughout the world are accidentally asphyxiated every year because they need to be choked for maximum pleasure.

The diagnosis of national masochism is the only thing that can satisfactorily explain the poll numbers in the presidential race.

[several hundred words...]

And in the wake of the greatest and most sustained act of systematic plunder since the Mongol hordes appropriated to themselves the riches of everyplace in Asia from Beijing to Isfahan, the reaction of the supine and slave-like American voting public is to scratch their heads and have a hard time deciding if they would like more of the same.

Despite his aristocratic prerogatives and connections in high society, even the Marquis de Sade himself was brought down by a lowly maid, who complained to the police of his cutting her while having his way with her, leading to his arrest.

In contrast to that plucky domestic servant, the American public appears to enjoy being lacerated while being badly used, moaning with delight at each new act of abuse and abasement, while, blue-lipped, gasping for air.

One worries for our children, threatened with the fate of the homeless street children so common in the sort of third world country into which we are being turned by our managing committee.

But, well, if you are determined to bend over on November 4, at least I hope you enjoy pain. In that case, you are going to be ecstatic.

ô_Ô

"it turns out..."

This is kind of interesting to read in the waning days of Bush's presidency:
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784

wow

jesus

I do love that.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/09/23/us/politics/23palinkissinger.jpg

Kissinger looks like a septuagenarian's bunion.

Trading down from Mamie van Doren there, I'd say.

so gonna happen

that's not a foreign leader, palin.

ok that picture is hilarious

Q: what was it that you and henry talked about today?
A: foreign policy

:D

l: "of all the shitty things i've had to do for this country..."
r: "wow! the big time!"

have YOU ever met Kissinger??? well, HAVE YOU?

FACE

I can see Kissinger from my couch.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080901/cvn-palin/images/3e5ef174-499e-42ff-9b28-82041c3f5b29.jpg

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080905/palin-poll/images/071aba7b-b513-487c-8fc0-57d3bd9856f8.jpg

I can see Kissinger from as my couch.

http://i65.photobucket.com/albums/h207/sakingsmore/Palin.jpg

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/palin.jpg

^^ in the tank