2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

I would have done it better, obv

George Will: McCain, you goof

I was about post that. "McCain: you hothead."

Is the "McCain = crazy" meme really starting to take off, or is it just me?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_el_pr/obama

Meanwhile Stanley Kurtz persists in pushing the Obama = radical story

http://thepage.time.com/more-from-the-nbc-news-florida-poll/

Obama winning 43% of FL hispanic vote. Gore won 34%.

What happens if he loses Penn. or Mich. (which are the most likely Kerry losses, I believe) but takes Florida?

why do we care about a wingnut nobody again? xxp

xp - not gonna happen, but have fun - http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm

Fuck that crap from gabbneb's AP link. I want to see a return to 90%+ top marginal rates to pay for everything Obama wants in platform.

so not gonna happen

thanks for the link but I have no idea which states PA or Michigan are! site needs some tooltips!

A MAN CAN DREAM GOD DAMNIT

xpost

electoral calculator for the america-impaired:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ev/

What happens if he loses Penn. or Mich. (which are the most likely Kerry losses, I believe) but takes Florida?

As long as he doesn't lose both, I think this is OK.

Nope, both result in a loss (thanks gabbneb)

Well, theoretically he could lose PA, MI, and (for the hell of it) NH while winning IA, NM, VA, CO, and FL. But it's hard to imagine a scenario where that would happen.

what the hell is this about:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/is_obamaland_spreading_antipal.php#more

has anyone seen these videos? is this even a story? does anyone care?

This is fun, btw

http://www.270towin.com/

Nope, both result in a loss

No.

IT would have to get pretty crazy for Obama to lose both Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win the election.

scenarios from 538

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SNhIVVIou3I/AAAAAAAAAGk/korQlccP9d0/S1600-R/0922_scenario.png

538 probability of Obama win:

IA: 95
MN: 89
NM: 89
WI: 89
MI: 84
PA: 81
CO: 79
VA: 75
NH: 65
OH: 53
NV: 49
IN: 39
FL: 39
MT: 33
NC: 32
MO: 31
WV: 23
ND: 11

this is the fun one

http://i33.tinypic.com/33vmf5t.jpg

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b330/trampledamage/db080922.gif

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b330/trampledamage/db080923.gif

under the new treasury proposal, henry paulson gets to cast the tie-breaking vote in the event of a tie

The electoral tie map looks pretty accurate.

C'mon, Omaha.

269-269 is also possible by Obama keeping MI but flipping IA, NM, and NV.

ha, i had it in my head that trudeau was a puma type for some reason

I kept seeing the 269/269 the other day when I was playing with that site.

under the new treasury proposal, henry paulson gets to cast the tie-breaking vote in the event of a tie

lol. OTM.

uh, xxp

If it gets thrown to the House, Republicans are gonna whine the way Dems did in 2000.

the heartening thing abt those 538 scenarios besides predicting an obama win is the give his a 5% higher chance than mccain of losing the popular vote and winning the election

hooray!

Yep. I'm not worried about the tie. Obama won't go in with a mandate, but he'll go in.

uh xp

hooray re: gop complaining

at least a tie will be broken the way the constitution says it should be, not by a lawsuit.

really interesting would be if mccain wins the popular vote in an electoral tie

dems would still vote him in but yikes angry republicans recounts cable news etc

would still vote obama in that is

ice craem's map requires Obama to lose an 84% state while winning 81, 79, 75 and 65% states
jaymc's scenario requires Obama to win a 49% state (which may not reflect new-voter registration trends) and a 65% state while losing 75 and 79% states

neither is all that plausible, but jaymc's is much moreso

The scary part is, just because it gets thrown to a Democratically-held House doesn't automatically mean Obama gets elected.

Each state's delegation gets to vote as one. So what do you do when you get to Arkansas' delegation? Democrats hold a 3-1 majority, but the state's voters will likely vote for McCain. Do they vote by party or do they vote by the whims of their constituents? Same goes for Montana, etc.

Multiply that by fifty, and it gets a little messy.

right, people have done that analysis and concluded that, while it doesn't automatically mean Obama gets elected, it probably still leaves Dems with the upper hand

I'm sure they'll all vote their consciences.

xpost

ice craem's map requires Obama to lose an 84% state while winning 81, 79, 75 and 65% states
jaymc's scenario requires Obama to win a 49% state (which may not reflect new-voter registration trends) and a 65% state while losing 75 and 79% states

neither is all that plausible, but jaymc's is much moreso

― gabbneb, Tuesday, September 23, 2008 12:51 PM (15 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

hmmm not so sure gabbs - the first scenario only requires movement from one state while the second requires three - of course the real probabilities can prob only be understood w/more detailed demographic/similarity etc info

should be mentioned that romney swung michigan his way w/a last minute full on charm/pandering offensive - promising to save the auto industry goes a long way there and mccain certainly isnt abaove any sort of ridiculousness

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/12th-amendment-update-tie-probability.html

btw their probability of a tie has gone from 3% to 1% since that post was made

it probably still leaves Dems with the upper hand

― gabbneb, Tuesday, September 23, 2008 11:53 AM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

I'm sure they'll all vote their consciences.

xpost

― Michael White, Tuesday, September 23, 2008 11:54 AM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

That's so much better when it's not an xpost

the first scenario only requires movement from one state while the second requires three - of course the real probabilities can prob only be understood w/more detailed demographic/similarity etc info

the first scenario requires McCain to win one State where he has never polled above 46%, while the second requires him to win two states where he has polled at or above 47% eight (CO) and 24 (VA) times