2008 Primaries Thread

(^^^ referring to Clinton's own claims about being against the war from the start there, in case that isn't clear)

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xpost I went into my reasoning above as to why I think McCain's gonna have basic mathematical problems if he's the nominee.

Elmo, I don't think Detroit is going to vote for McCain just because of a messed up Dem primary. Just a hunch.

"unbecoming a President" sounds like a danielle steele novel - good title

the problem for the Republicans in terms of a McCain nom is that he will suppress the Republican vote because large parts of their core constituencies don't like him

Florida is a concern. But Florida is for the GOP to lose at this point.

I think Dems would be less suspicious of Hillary if the Clintons hadn't demonstrated time and time again that they're far more interested in helping the Clintons than helping the party. Which is fine and understandable and all, but recent events have really played into that feeling.

please drop the imperious martinet act

I like this phrase!

Yeah, the potential for a "disenfranchisement of Florida" meme is troubling me as well.

Bill has also called Obama a "kid" btw

The narrative is there. Where's the evidence?

There's no evidence about how any of these candidates will fare in the General Election, but there are good reasons to fear McCain far more than any other GOP hopeful. Many of them are set forth above. Remember, stalwart conservatives like Peggy Noonan apparently fear McCain somehow slipping through the primaries precisely because he isn't, in their view, an appropriately conservative candidate, which will make him appealing as a moderate/independent/outsider in the GE.

Lots of other reasons, too. I'd have to circle back later to elaborate, tho.

Shakey, significant part of the GOP base don't love McCain, but they'll campaign for him over a Democrat, esp. HRC. And I'm anxious to hear the mathmatical difficulties McCain will face as a GE candidate, Eppy.

calling Obama's narrative a "fairytale" when Clinton himself has made bald-faced lies about his "opposition" to the war

OTM. I was about to unearth this story. Do I need to say that I despise his tone – the self-pitying lilt he gives his words even when he's on the attack?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/JeffWells/subalbum1/britney-clinton.jpg

@o@!??

HRC is not a Trojan Horse for Bald Britney.

Yeah, but Florida went red last time. I think we're expecting it to stay red this time, and if it happens to go blue this year, well that will be a pleasant surprise. I don't see why all the worry about Florida.

I'm hardly gung-ho over Clinton (except now, thanks to the pic elmo posted(!)). But i mean, an old mean man who wants to keep us in Iraq for 100 years is likely going to lose to a Clinton. Yes stressing "likely". But just sayin'!

Yeah, Iraq is where McCain is most vulnerable.

He says he knows little about economics, too (tho he now denies saying it), so maybe there's hope there, as well.

I want to be hopeful vs. McCain, but I'm not.

The problem with the "but Condi told us they wouldn't go to war" argument is that it amounts to "Hillary wasn't pro-war, she was just a chump."

I would be willing to bet good money that MI stays blue, most democrats in Michigan are pissed at the state party rather than than with the democratic party in general.

The narrative is there. Where's the evidence?

i like this - it could be said about every campaign ever.

The truth on the Clintons' war record

In the last two presidential elections, in which I'm pretty sure the GOP had a far better image than they do now, they still wouldn't have won without large increases in turnout. The evangelicals / social conservatives are already disillusioned (lotsa stories about evangelicals getting out of political activism) and something happened for the Dems to whomp the GOP in the midterms. McCain's gonna further alienate the evangeicals, and though he'll pick up independents, I really don't think he'll pick up appreciably more independents than Hillary will given the way she's been tacking since she ran for Senate. McCain is a nice guy and all, but if you're an independent, are you gonna vote for the pro-war anti-health care guy, or the anti-war pro-health care lady? Whose husband presided over the best economy in recent memory? So McCain loses a portion of her base, Hillary maintains hers, and they split the independents. Hillary wins.

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/01/the-fine-art-of.html

Both of these attacks – i.e., Reagan and the “present” voting – are clearly factually false. And everyone who pays attention to the news knows it. And Clinton knows it too. Obama’s invocation of Reagan had nothing to do with praising Republican ideas, and the “present” thing has already been debunked too.

But still, she and her campaign keep harping on this -- dishonestly. What’s so infuriating is that, in doing so, they assume their audience is too ignorant to learn the truth. It’s not so much that they’re attacking Obama – after all, that’s politics. It’s that Clinton’s attacks illustrate a deep contempt for voters. Call it “the rube strategy” – we’ll say what we want and most people will be too ignorant to ever figure out the difference.

Now, I think the problem with Hillary is that she'll drive up GOP turnout way, way more than Obama will. So that's my worry. I think she's still the favorite though.

haha, hire me as a campaign writer!

Daniel, it's understood.

I got hit in the gut when Kerry BARELY lost. Yes, BARELY. In retrospect, we all say "Kerry went down big time". He did go down, but not BIG TIME!

And it's good to not assume either side has a shoe-in for the Presidency, but all the despair and worry that "Oh, now the GOP is DEFINITELY going to win" talk here whenever a Dem farts is, frankly, really fucking funny.

Eppy - McCain is NOT nice! That's the whole point! Everyone who thinks HRC is "like a total bitch" is definitely not going to like McCain either.

McCain loses a portion of her base, Hillary maintains hers, and they split the independents. Hillary wins.

"This is the biggest fairy tale I've ever heard!"

I hate McCain, actually, but honestly, aren't the people who think Hillary's a bitch exactly the kind of people that will like McCain's soft-spoken war hero schtick?

I got hit in the gut when Kerry BARELY lost. Yes, BARELY. In retrospect, we all say "Kerry went down big time". He did go down, but not BIG TIME!

Some of you thought John Kerry would win the 2004 Presidential election. That's because you looked it up in the polls. I looked it up in my gut, and it told me Bush would win. And he did.

Everyone who thinks HRC is "like a total bitch" is definitely not going to like McCain either.

I think a lot of the people who hate Hillary for "being a bitch" might go for McCain because a lot of the things she gets chided for are much more palatable in a male candidate.

I think the latent concern here is what will happen after the election. A Dem's gonna go into office with at least three gigantic problems to face, and it would be a lot better to blow in on a wind of party unity and domination than grudging better-of-two-evils acceptance.

Nicole otm

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xp

and in 2004 they hooked up the steal-a-vote machines in Ohio, as they will again.

Eppy, Nicole - No, they're not exactly the same people, although some do exist.

There's this thing called "the silent undecided" that -- get this, NONE OF US IN THE BLOGOSPHERE REALLY KNOW -- that has been a factor in elections, surely, since 2000.

"unbecoming a President" sounds like a danielle steele novel - good title

so does, you know, the lewinsky story

Also, I have a selfish objection in that I'd much rather keep Hillary as my Senator until she drops dead than to have her as a 4/8-year pres.

xpost I'm not in the blogosphere, dude.

Do I need to say that I despise his tone – the self-pitying lilt he gives his words

that's fine, but that doesn't mean he's being nasty or hitting below the belt - this is such totally standard-issue give-and-take it's pretty crazy the way some of you, and many elsewhere (in the pundit class) have reacted

Eppy - ILX is an honorary lifetime achievement comunal blog with all comments and no entries.

Also, "there are a bunch of people who we don't know what they're going to do!" isn't an argument for either side.

Exactly! The either side part is important.

Yet, here we are in the lol primaries thread debating about not making arguments

http://www.solarnavigator.net/films_movies_actors/actors_films_images/jeff_goldblum.jpg

THE SILENT UNDECIDEDS, YOU FOOLS!

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

I think we have a Screaming Lobster Of Hope source pic!

McCain loses a portion of her base, Hillary maintains hers, and they split the independents. Hillary wins.

Seriously, I hope you're right, but I think this is way off. Reformulate it: McCain doesn't inspire hatred in Democratic voters, but HRC inspires hatred in GOP voters. So the GOP turns out overwhelmingly to bar her from winning the GE (even those who don't like McCain hold their nose and vote for him). Meanwhile, McCain -- moving to the center, where he's more natural -- peels off independent votes and lots of Democratic votes (obv., many Democrats don't like HRC, and more won't after this bitter primary is over). McCain wins. Easily, I'm afraid.

It's the glasses.

hey no need to be nasty, Mackro

I just don't see the GOP being inspired by ANYTHING at this point!

You guys don't have to look at right-wing blogs, but if there's any time to see the amount of desparation there, NOW is the time to have a gander at it.

Tracer -- ??? As in Ms. Jackson?

McCain is NOT nice! That's the whole point! Everyone who thinks HRC is "like a total bitch" is definitely not going to like McCain either.

you're dreaming

I think a lot of the people who hate Hillary for "being a bitch" might go for McCain because a lot of the things she gets chided for are much more palatable in a male candidate.

true of many. for others, it's that McCain's meanness plays as the complaint of the regular Joe, while Hillary's plays as the contempt of the elite.

I think you're really discounting the amount of hatred on the right for McCain, to say nothing of the general feel of defeatedness on the right now. Again, I think Obama would do better, but look, the GOP had to acheive a record high level of turnout in 2004 to beat John friggin' Kerry. Faced with a (despite the evidence here) beloved figure on the left like Hillary, the Dems are going to at least maintain their levels, and no matter how much the right hates Hillary, I just don't think they're going to get their turnout even higher.

attention people perplexed by the notion that john mccain is popular - please refer to the multiple national polls showing him beating all democrats, kthxbye