I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

ok sorry, I just...

We all probably need to take a step back, and take a deep breath.

Yes. Yesterday I was driving through Easthampton, MA and saw a few people standing around waving Romney signs and a Don't Tread on Me Banner, which is not a common sight around here. Because the Republicans in my life have dialed it way down in the last few years or are newly minted fake-Libertarians, I felt this desperate need to talk to these people — to interact w/ them rather than read their FB comments or see them soundbitten on Comedy Central. So I parked around the corner so it didn't look like I was pulling over just to needle them or start a fight or whatever, but by the time I got there they were gone.

Hopefully that can serve as the epitaph of this election.

I feel like a such a clown every few months for having the same, private epiphany — "Oh yeah, this country has gone seriously, irretrievably off the rails." But it does feel different this time. Not because "they" are any more vitriolic or dishonest than before but because there is ZERO OVERLAP in the competing narratives.

The odds are probably better for term limits legislation or comprehensive gun control than for anything that will walk back the FCC deregulation that has allowed for this. Clear Channel, Fox, Gannett, Time Warner...the system they've been gifted with is profitable ONLY by permanent encampment on one of the two sides.

(^this is obv. a false equivalency in strictly ideological terms)

obama -- 67% to win on intrade as 7:30am EST the day before election

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

some of you probably couldnt bring yourself to vote for O unless you checked the maniac militiamen comments, I suspect. (At least leave me that illusion.)

(At least leave me that illusion.)

Why? Your desire for this illusion would seem to bolster the thought that you're mainly in this for the superiority. (For the record, I'm voting for Jill Stein and suspect I'm in the minority w/r/t to being generally sympathetic toward yr position)

whatev, i don't get that

Yeah, no.

Sorry...it sounds to me like you are saying Obama voters require wingnut noise to justify their votes, which suggests they're not thinking clearly. And yet you don't really believe this but would prefer to hold this illusion....

yes, yes

There you go, believing in things you don't believe in.

Morbs beleives in contrarianism.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
Obama's win probability peaked at 87% on 10/4, last day before polls reflected Denver debate. Fell to 61% on 10/12. Now fully recovered.

ha at mobuto's description of unskewed polls: "generated in the same way that a kid turns an F into an A by drawing an extra bar down the right side of it."

welp

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/this_could_get_weird.php?ref=fpblg

ha at mobuto's description of unskewed polls: "generated in the same way that a kid turns an F into an A by drawing an extra bar down the right side of it."

Loved that line. It was a really good piece all over.

Yesterday I was driving through Easthampton, MA and saw a few people standing around waving Romney signs and a Don't Tread on Me Banner, which is not a common sight around here.

There are weird pockets of hardcore conservatism in that area (cf. my former employers in the adjacent town who stalked around the office muttering "I can't believe we have a n----r president" the morning after the 2008 election).

A bit of levity:

http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/barack-obama-s-cold-calls

Either Obama will win, or polling/poll analysis is finished. Not sure whether that's comforting or not.

Sidenote: I wonder whether Romney's personality explains the infamous divide between national polls and battleground state polls. That is, the more you see of him, the less you want to vote for him.

Raymond, that was awesome.

Either Obama will win, or polling/poll analysis is finished. Not sure whether that's comforting or not.
--Ye Mad Puffin

Not likely. Methodologies might get adjusted, but that's it. People don't seem to remember how wrong the polls were in 2000.

Thanks man

ya that was great

xp

I think we are probably in a transition period w/r/t polling methodology and online/tech-related polls will def slowly take over. but its not like the field of statistics disappears if it turns out there was some huge methodology problem this time.

Either Obama will win, or polling/poll analysis is finished.

No! The polling just says that Obama is substantially more likely to win than he is to lose. But he could still lose. All the polls give us is an estimate. If Romney wins California, then yeah, that's a strike against polling. But I don't think that's going to happen.

good post on the difference in methodology of the various polling agrigators, agrees w my suspicion that Nate silver is v conservative in calling an election a lock http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/04/comparisons-among-aggregators-and-modelers

My biggest worry was that this would end up looking like the 2000 election so I went back and looked at final pre-election polling results, nationally & in OH.
Bush was ahead in basically every November 2000 poll of Ohio. (2 ahead Mason-Dixon, 10 ahead Ohio Poll, 9 ahead Zogby)
Bush was ahead 11-2-2 in final national polls in 2000. (11 polls where Bush was ahead, 2 where Gore was ahead, 2 tied)
OTOH, Florida was lightly polled in Nov 2000 (only two polls after Nov 1), and both polls (ARG and Zogby) showed Gore ahead.

very nervous, the prospect of a romney presidency is more terrifying than 4 more years of bush

Yeah, not very reassuring to read of a final set of polls, which, if aggregated with no weighting, produced a result that was nearly 3pts the wrong way (Bush +2.3 rather than Gore +0.5). Looks like Nader's support was overestimated.

This all comes down to fans of The Newsroom: http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/what-your-favorite-tv-shows-say-about-your-politic

Why does So You Think You Can Dance lean left and Dancing With the Stars lean right? Aren't they both just dancing shows? I don't watch either so it is puzzling to me.

one involves discovering new talented dancers and one involves torturing celebrities in order to find the two or three who can actually dance

people publicly celebrate reality tv lean right, i believe it

I'm guessing the right-leaning TCM viewers don't include the ones who stayed up to watch Riki-oh.

Why does So You Think You Can Dance lean left and Dancing With the Stars lean right? Aren't they both just dancing shows? I don't watch either so it is puzzling to me.

I can't put my finger on it either, and yet it parses so absolutely perfectly to my own personal experience.

Sons of Anarchy makes so much sense in that diagram.

dr. morbius who shd i vote 4! leaning towards romney obv ;)

This headline is a good sign:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-romney-will-win_660391.html

Fondly remeber Fred Barnes' 1996 New Republic cover story: WHY CLINTON CAN'T WIN,

btw lines for early voting were insane in 2008 and 2010 too but when I voted on Election Day I waited ten minutes in line both times.

Yeah, I tried to early vote on Saturday afternoon, and a posted sign announced it was a two hour wait. Based on past experience, I decided it'd be a lot quicker for me to vote on Election Day, so I went home. In Chicago, there are about 2,000 polling places open on election day, but only 50 were open for early voting.

very nervous, the prospect of a romney presidency is more terrifying than 4 more years of bush

look I don't like the idea of a Romney presidency but seriously?

I can actually see that argument. Partly it's because we've all survived a Bush presidency, but the landscape has changed so much.

i feel similarly. between the absolutely terrifying economic policy, the chances of heavy deregulation (particularly wrt environmental aspects), the near guaranteed tax handout to the ultra-wealthy (and requisite bashing of the middle class to make up the difference), the sabre rattling at iran, and the campaign promises of getting "tough" on china on day one, i think that romney/ryan could completely fuck up any progress we've made towards economic recovery, get us into another hopeless war, and accelerate global climate catastrophe.

Bush redefined the party in a way that ensures that every future GOP pres will be 'even worse' even if mittens himself might not seem so scary

Hope-filled Fred Barnes cites: "a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days" as a prime reason why Romney will win.

Whenever I read about GOTV efforts that cite huge numbers of phone calls made, I immediately think... robo-calls. Then I think, if the Big Brains For Romney believe that robo-calls will inject that last bit of self-motivation to get a non-voter out the door to vote, then they truly have more money than sense. GOTV is all about human volunteers making contact with other humans. 1,800,000 calls per day is a nonsense statistic to feed to big contributors and the media.

to ease the pressure in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy, the voting has been divided into 2 days. Republicans vote Tuesday. Democrats vote on Wednesday. Please pass along

when the robot tells u to vote u have to or it will shoot u with lasers

"HEY JEWS" -Mamet

http://www.jewishjournal.com/opinion/article/the_final_obama_romney_showdown_a_note_to_a_stiff_necked_people

the diminution in employment and income will decrease their opportunity to marry