serious asshole
http://i48.tinypic.com/1f4op.jpg
― but the boo boyz are getting to (Z S), Friday, 2 November 2012 18:44 (eleven years ago) link
despite all the cheery poll numbers, i think i'm just go to have this low level anxiety until the election is over....
thinking about signing up for a shift canvassing for obama, at least feel like i've done something i guess
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 21:45 (eleven years ago) link
2 possible ways to visualize/make intuitive a 70% chance of winning-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3[...]― flopson, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 5:06 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
-> if there were an election every day for ten days, w/ the result every day independent of that of the previous day obama would win 7 days, and romney 3[...]
― flopson, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 5:06 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
really late to reply to this, but this would only be correct if the election was done by sampling, which it isn't. with actual voting it could be more like a 69% chance of obama either winning all 10 days, a 29% chance of romney winning all 10, and 2% a mix of results.
― abanana, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:01 (eleven years ago) link
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VlmHNP9So5Y/S86arf3VhTI/AAAAAAAAFcI/yZ-JaIaYn2o/s1600/mcconnell.jpg
― Iago Galdston, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:17 (eleven years ago) link
c'mon guys we've been over this re: Senator Blobfish
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01565/blobfish_1565953c.jpg
― Force Boxman (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:18 (eleven years ago) link
it's become kind of hilarious watching everyone on ile take a turn at coming up with a shaky analogy about what polls may or may not actually mean
― some dude, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:20 (eleven years ago) link
Shakey's pretty good about making analogies himself.
― the ones that I'm near most: fellow outcasts and ilxors (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:23 (eleven years ago) link
eh, if you follow sports where silver gets most of his methodology from it's not that hard to get`a grasp on
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:23 (eleven years ago) link
that's why all the pained attempts to overexplain it are funny!
― some dude, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:24 (eleven years ago) link
it's like if you put 7 obamas and 3 romneys into a bag....oh nevermind.
― ryan, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:25 (eleven years ago) link
if daily elections were held in one hundred alternate universes, the reverse vampires would elect romney πx7 times
― some dude, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:27 (eleven years ago) link
I was less trying to come up with an illustration of what 70-30 means--I'm quite sure everyone understands that--then why no one ought to be shocked if the 30% end of it were to happen (and, by extension, why the Republican freak-out of Nate Silver is silly). Surprised, sure, but not shocked.
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:30 (eleven years ago) link
"of Nate Silver" = "over Nate Silver"
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
80-20
― lag∞n, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
O'Nate Silverpants.
― Jeff, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:31 (eleven years ago) link
Yes, up to 80-20 now--if I remember 2008 correctly, it will keep increasing until Tuesday (absent any evidence that it shouldn't).
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:33 (eleven years ago) link
kinda of excited that this election has lead to a nationwide debate over statistics and probability theory
― ryan, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:35 (eleven years ago) link
They should skip the whole election and just roll a d10 every day; if it comes up 2, 6 or 7 Romney gets to be President that day, otherwise Obama gets to be President
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:36 (eleven years ago) link
xp: 2 or 7 now
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:37 (eleven years ago) link
Saving throw vs. mind flayers
― Ned Raggett, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:37 (eleven years ago) link
Future presidents to be exclusively drawn from the worlds of baseball sabermetrics and Texas Hold 'Em champions.
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:40 (eleven years ago) link
mitt vs. death
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:42 (eleven years ago) link
daryl morey at head of nasa, depodesta at hud, epstein at treasury, beane at state, bill james attorney general
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:45 (eleven years ago) link
Would have excellent, but I think he died.
http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/kicks105.com/files/2012/01/robert-hegyes.jpg
― clemenza, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
lasorda as henny kissinger
― sug ones (omar little), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:48 (eleven years ago) link
john schuerholz as mitch danielsjoe morgan as rick perry
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:53 (eleven years ago) link
jose canseco as donald trump
― balls, Friday, 2 November 2012 22:54 (eleven years ago) link
Quite understandable, but seriously, just do what I'm doing and drink a lot and play Xcom. It's doing wonders for my anxiety to blast Sectopods into fragments by like three dudes with plasma sniper rifles.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Friday, 2 November 2012 22:55 (eleven years ago) link
yeah playing ac3, but it's just...always....there
― seasonal hugs (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 2 November 2012 23:02 (eleven years ago) link
man, Silver's "there weren't so many assholes in sports journalism" cuts pretty deep
― saltwater incursion (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2012 23:57 (eleven years ago) link
Lol at "mitt v death"
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:22 (eleven years ago) link
Romney & Ryan's Alternate-Reality Adventure
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:23 (eleven years ago) link
i don't care what they claim on internet comment sections i refuse to believe any republican has any enthusiasm about voting for romney
― Mordy, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:26 (eleven years ago) link
Mitt vs. Death by Mitt
― Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:33 (eleven years ago) link
Maddow shining spotlight on Florida's attempt to fuck up the voting experience
― Raymond Cummings, Saturday, 3 November 2012 01:34 (eleven years ago) link
http://fayobserver.com/articles/2012/11/01/1214384?sac=fo.home
― reggie (qualmsley), Saturday, 3 November 2012 02:10 (eleven years ago) link
http://americablog.com/2012/11/computer-glitch-votes-black-florida-county-election-fraud.html
― Fetchboy, Saturday, 3 November 2012 18:28 (eleven years ago) link
― ryan, Friday, November 2, 2012 6:35 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
me, too
― flopson, Saturday, 3 November 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
How many of this year's Voter Fraud cases involve Republican tampering? I guess if the problem wasn't there much before, they are doing there best to prove it really exists.
― Emperor Cos Dashit (Adam Bruneau), Saturday, 3 November 2012 19:28 (eleven years ago) link
so I lost my ID and I was pretty sure that as a registered democrat I'd never be able to get a replacement. I went Friday and they just asked for my social and gave me the card, took 2 or 3 mins, didn't ask for any documentation. Really?!
― flag this post and die (roxymuzak), Sunday, 4 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
if the ID card had a photo, they could check it against your appearance and... bob's your uncle
― Aimless, Sunday, 4 November 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
uh-oh - carolina won.
― balls, Sunday, 4 November 2012 22:03 (eleven years ago) link
So is AC3 worth it? The podcasty reviews from the last week have been mixed.
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Sunday, 4 November 2012 22:08 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.thenation.com/blog/171011/eleventh-hour-gop-voter-suppression-could-swing-ohio#
― Mordy, Sunday, 4 November 2012 22:37 (eleven years ago) link
As a displaced NJ voter, by order of the governor, I can now vote by email. However, this seems to require a printer and a scanner, so it's not quite as easy as it sounds. Not sure if this will invite massive absentee ballot fraud.
― o. nate, Sunday, 4 November 2012 23:27 (eleven years ago) link
That OH story is disgusting
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 00:13 (eleven years ago) link
bums me out
― Gukbe, Monday, 5 November 2012 00:17 (eleven years ago) link
http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/the-smug-vs-the-stupid
― Raymond Cummings, Monday, 5 November 2012 00:41 (eleven years ago) link
Guess what: if the research is correct, up to at least one in five Americans have sociopathic tendencies strong enough to believe that full-on overt fascism would be a great idea and total improvement. There's a reason why Alan Keyes got the numbers he did when he ran against Obama, or why Nixon's approval ratings were nonzero on the day he got on that helicopter to leave office, or why Dubya's numbers never dropped elong a certain point. What do you do, how do you adjust your Enlightenment-era view of the benefits of rationality, reason, and democracy when knowing how fucked up a large enough percentage of people think?
― the max in the high castle (kingfish), Monday, 5 November 2012 01:13 (eleven years ago) link
Education, education, education.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 5 November 2012 02:13 (eleven years ago) link