speaking of betting markets how much $ have you made on my intrade advice caek??
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 11:59 (eleven years ago) link
i am currently up about $28. looks like i sold romney at pretty much the exact top of his market.
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 12:08 (eleven years ago) link
It's best to not argue with people who were likely conceived at an L.A. Guns concert.
simultaneous lol & middle finger
― Inconceivable (to the entire world) (underrated aerosmith bootlegs I have owned), Thursday, 1 November 2012 12:37 (eleven years ago) link
I rolled my eyes and then I remembered when I saw Poison at the Cap Centre in Landover, Maryland in 1988 when I was 13, I saw a couple openly having sex in full view of everyone and theoretically that could have resulted in a baby who would be voting in a few days.
― Walter Galt, Thursday, 1 November 2012 13:56 (eleven years ago) link
if it makes you feel any better, I'm voting for Obama
― some dude, Thursday, 1 November 2012 14:07 (eleven years ago) link
lol
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Thursday, 1 November 2012 14:08 (eleven years ago) link
today in the war on our friend nate silver http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/11/todays-war-on-nate-silver-quiet-flows-the-don-edition.html
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:01 (eleven years ago) link
Proof that Romney is already doing good things for the economy.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:10 (eleven years ago) link
OF ENGLAND
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:15 (eleven years ago) link
GERMANY ACTUALLY
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:21 (eleven years ago) link
I was torn on which to go with tbh, England seemed funnier
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:24 (eleven years ago) link
i think your instincts were solid
― caek, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:25 (eleven years ago) link
Wanted to post this long quote (somebody named Gelman, via Sullivan) because it's exactly the point I was making yesterday. (Sorry if someone's already linked).
I can simultaneously (a) accept that Obama has a 72 percent chance of winning and (b) say the election is too close to call. What if the weatherman told you there was a 30 percent chance of rain — would you be shocked if it rained that day? No. To put it another way, suppose Mitt Romney pulls out 51 percent of the popular vote and wins the election. That doesn’t mean that Nate Silver skews the polls (as is suggested by this repulsive article at Examiner.com, which, among other things, criticizes Silver for being thin and having a soft voice). Romney winning the election with 51 percent of the vote is well within the margin of error, as Silver clearly indicates. That’s what too close to call is all about.
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:27 (eleven years ago) link
gelman is a statistician who does a lot of polisci stuff and he has a good blog
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:30 (eleven years ago) link
it's true in a v limited way of thinking, like maybe it's too close to call but not too close to put a probability on, one tells you something the other nothing
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:32 (eleven years ago) link
another way of looking at it is one way would help you win at poker, the other not so much
Everyone take a nap for the next 5 days.
― Jeff, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:33 (eleven years ago) link
Great idea.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:33 (eleven years ago) link
gelman's better critique in another post was that as far as these sorta conceptual probabilities go, 538 is probably being *too* precise and rounding to the nearest 10% would be less confusing
xp
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:34 (eleven years ago) link
omg imagine the seizures when the prediction flipped from 60 to 50%
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:36 (eleven years ago) link
and in this case the only poker here is intrade or whatever. but as far as just understanding what's going on 72% vs 73% doesn't help people and can be deceiving in a sense.
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:37 (eleven years ago) link
yeah I thought of that too, when you round to the nearest 10% people misinterpret things in the other direction.
it helps show the movement over time, if maybe not day to day
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:38 (eleven years ago) link
and it would be way less fun to check every day
I think he should just do it like the homeland security alert system, 5 colors
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:39 (eleven years ago) link
top threat level soviet red
― lag∞n, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:40 (eleven years ago) link
I'm guessing the actual results will be slightly better for Obama than the raw polls indicate because a lot of them don't include households without a landline -- missing a lot of the under-30 voters, who don't turn out to the polls as much as others, but who lean Democratic. (I believe 538 takes this into account but I'm not sure.)
― abanana, Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:51 (eleven years ago) link
the odds of Romney winning goes down the more he says things like this:
http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/10/31/romney-compares-sandy-relief-to-cleaning-up-after-high-school-football-game/
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 1 November 2012 17:59 (eleven years ago) link
I saw that last night while watching Last Word (ugh, Lawrence O'Donnell) because nothing else was on. Was hoping some other media outlet would pick up on it so I don't have to link to his page.
― Johnny Fever, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:02 (eleven years ago) link
(xpost) I imagine the world Romney carries around in his head looks a lot like this:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__hspjzfC024/TDLdWOX1uMI/AAAAAAAABd0/FzCfyhWzQYA/s1600/pleasantville-Islam.jpg
Which I sort of understand--the one in my own head looks something like this:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/auteurs_production/images/film/dazed-and-confused/w448/dazed-and-confused.jpg?1337960424
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:20 (eleven years ago) link
the world in my head looks like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXT6KrX-PF4
― Gandalf’s Gobble Melt (DJP), Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:24 (eleven years ago) link
"What World Do You Carry Around in Your Head?"
http://www.springfieldfiles.com/albums/food/0229.JPG
― clemenza, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:27 (eleven years ago) link
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQiZhghc1d3tWt0yjX1EbUYUoM5iaf6istSZIwzWQWaVEjLhw8Q9Q
― Sug ban (Nicole), Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:31 (eleven years ago) link
^^ good idea, but needs its own thread. not here, plz.
― Aimless, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:32 (eleven years ago) link
Doesn't one big statistically misread involve the overwhelming, almost exclusive support Obama has among blacks and Latinos? I could have sworn I read something about how the various models have trouble with political data that anomalously skewed.
― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 1 November 2012 18:37 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxMD02zU9SE
mittens getting ruffled by a (quite conservative, iirc) iowa radio host about his political waffling vis-a-vis the stance of the mormon church on abortion
― j., Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:41 (eleven years ago) link
holy crap
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:44 (eleven years ago) link
wait what the hell?
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:46 (eleven years ago) link
would love to see the setup/context for that, it seems like mitt just starts shouting like crazy for no reason but OMG this guy is a basketcase, really bizarre next to that "silent statue of jello while crowd shouts down global warming protester"
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:46 (eleven years ago) link
O_o Kinda shows why Mitt hasn't really talked religion much on the campaign trail.
― Sex Kitten mind control slave (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:48 (eleven years ago) link
OMG this guy is a basketcase
hey how the fuck else are you supposed to hold all that shit together
― j., Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
the pacing!
― difficult listening hour, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:50 (eleven years ago) link
Video is from 07?
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:51 (eleven years ago) link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MRbIwshAvU
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:52 (eleven years ago) link
this is an odd thing to only see NOW
xxpost Really? Wow. Can't believe it hasn't been passed around more, it's just...the blowsy short-tempered bullying quality of it, it's this glimpse into the board-room hardman Mitt that we got teeny little glimpses of in the debates, the total impatience with the person he's arguing with. I really can't wait for the inevitable tell-alls from his campaign staffers.
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:53 (eleven years ago) link
http://youtu.be/IFkaCji-UDA
20 min director's cut (rage portion starts @ 10:00
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:55 (eleven years ago) link
7:45 or so gets onto the topic it seems
― Doctor Casino, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:57 (eleven years ago) link
OK obv he's a dick in this video but it's almost a relief to see some blood flowing here...I think this actually humanizes him. Also relative to his typical convolutions his argument seems (?) rhetorically sound.
― Hadrian VIII, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:58 (eleven years ago) link
yeah I agree, if anything reminds me of romney in debate #1
― iatee, Thursday, 1 November 2012 19:59 (eleven years ago) link