I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

ya but theres a week to go so that stuff shouldnt factor anymore

I mean the economy is not going to shift between now and the election

is that last job report supposed to come out friday? will nate silver have time to cook those numbers too?

just put the numbers in a pot nate

btw we are on a first name basis w this guy now

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5. #notthatcomplicated

lol

I know this will be shot down immediately by three or four of you, but I was wondering if that final jobs report could have a marginal effect if it were at one extreme or the other--say, +200,000 or in the red. If it's where it probably will be, in that +50,000 - +125,000 range, no effect. But would an extreme number be enough to affect a very close state?

its less the 'effect' and more that positive economic data suggests that people were gonna vote for the incumbent cause their lives were going better

I think there's some disagreement about this, but imo job numbers are more of an index of what people are feeling in their personal lives than a number that actually sways people. I think the report is mostly priced into ppl's already existing opinions + poll responses before jobs report even comes out. ymmv etc

pretty sure our economy is going back into the shitter after the election since the eurozone has unemployment up to 11% due to their awesome deficit cut to prosperity plan.

dont tell anyone tho.

I mean good news is good news and bad news is bad news but the type of people who can tell you what a job report means also are not undecided voters in Ohio. I mean maybe like 3 of them or something. but just think back to the town hall meeting and ask yourself if those people know what the last jobs report number was.xp

***vizualizes***

The guy who got together with his co-workers to come up with the question on Libya: he knew.

Yeah, the people that pay attention to job reports are unlikely to favor this one over the past 4 years' reports, and the people that don't pay attention will continue to not pay attention.

I mean good news is good news and bad news is bad news but the type of people who can tell you what a job report means also are not undecided voters in Ohio. I mean maybe like 3 of them or something. but just think back to the town hall meeting and ask yourself if those people know what the last jobs report number was.xp

― iatee, Wednesday, October 31, 2012 6:29 PM (25 minutes ago)

actually no news is good news

i just voted-- maybe i shoulda waited for the jobs report.

This is great (via Salon):

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Chris-Christie-Welcomes-President-to-the-Post-Obama-Era

it's been almost three weeks since Romney gave an interview and more than a month since he answered a single question from the reporters that travel with him. He can't, obviously. He can't answer questions about his auto industry claims and now he can't answer about FEMA either.

is this getting traction in the MSM/ cable news? seems like a p big deal to me if Romney won't answer questions from the reporters traveling with him

― it's smdh time in America (will), Wednesday, October 31, 2012 11:45 AM (4 hours ago)

Watched some of the network news yesterday and it was mostly storm coverage, so no mention of the fact that he was asked 11 times if he would still de-fund FEMA and ignored it each time. I'm guessing the Biden challenge on the auto industry claims might make the news tonight.

car companies themselves pushing back seems p noteworthy

This is great (via Salon):

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Chris-Christie-Welcomes-President-to-the-Post-Obama-Era

― clemenza, mercredi 31 octobre 2012 23:44 (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

someone please tell me this bullfeces

Romney’s lead in the national polls may appear small, but it is likely much more significant, since the electorate that shows up on Tuesday will include proportionally fewer Democrats than most polls have assumed thus far.

Conservatives are beginning to understand that, though few will say so openly, for fear of encouraging complacency among voters, or tempting superstition.

xp you gotta be kidding me?

polls dont assume a gop/dem split they just call people

I love the "You shouldn't put too much stock in their predictions...because I HAVE A PREDICTION TOO!" rhetorical style that is so popular in election season

Here's the key paragraph from the Christie piece:

But the truth about Christie’s outreach to Obama is blindingly obvious: Mitt Romney is now running away with this election, freeing Christie to praise the president without fear that doing so will tip the scales. (Followed by Mordy's quote.)

will include proportionally fewer Democrats than most polls have assumed thus far.

Mitt Romney is now running away with this election

I read these sorts of pronouncement and I begin to fear that the invisible voters may steal this election, yet.

"Christie... will tip the scales."

I think there's a chance Obama will drop Biden for Christie over the weekend.

Conservatives are beginning to understand that, though few will say so openly

lolllllllllllll

aahahahahah "running away" is just pure candyland stuff, I would buy "race has tightened" and, much more plausibly "race has tightened but not enough to matter and the biggest tightening has been specifically in states where it doesn't matter" but "running away with the election," come on, dude needs to be a man and post some links or, etc

romney has literally been losing this election absolutely the entire time

obama to hire Christie as whitehouse bipartisan carer in chief and giver of worlds best hugs

how are these people going to feel if/when obama wins? are they just going to straight up have psychotic breaks?

conspiracyville

It's going to be really ugly. If you dig into conservativeland comment threads there's essentially nobody who believes the election is even competitive. They're not going to believe an Obama victory is remotely legitimate. It'll be a fun four years!

i'm probably one of the young one here and i'm wondering: was the level of anomosity between republicans and democrats that high before?

they thought bill clinton murdered dudes over small time land deals

to enter a conspiracyville of my own i wonder to what extent some of these punditsorwhatever actually believe that romney is "running away w the race" and to what extent if any they are consciously preparing to radicalize people.

The illegitimacy of Obama's presidency is manifest to far right reactionaries because how could a traitor who is destroying the republic be legitimate? They know he is a traitor who is destroying the republic because anyone who disagrees with them is a traitor who is destroying the republic. And he's black.

Conspiracy aside, the Christie thing is, for at least a day, just one big distraction for Romney in terms of media coverage. They've been going on about it all night on CNN.

Mind you, they'd probably be on Romney over the FEMA thing otherwise, so maybe it's not so bad.

i'm probably one of the young one here and i'm wondering: was the level of anomosity between republicans and democrats that high before?

No, but largely because the current shitstorm is more about Republican animosity towards our uppity Democratic president.

I think you can say a certain % of this is race related but it really is easy to forget to what extent republicans hated bill clinton

And what makes it worse for GOP diehards is that Bill gets to be all elder statesman/campaign rallier/etc now, maintaining an actual wide popularity. And in contrast W is... *shrug*

I mean, can you imagine W being back in 2016 in that capacity? Or later? Fuck no.

ISTR Clinton getting all kinds of partisan abuse for apparently being a cracker with extravagant appetites, Lady Macbeth for a wife and a Bingo lady for a mother.

it's easier to like a guy when his political career is over cf also reagan + democratic party

they don't have to like him, they just don't benefit anymore from demonizing him (reagan, clinton)

Van: let's just say that the 2004 campaign was mildly bitter.