I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

Watched a few minutes of gloating Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe offering his cliched conservative rhetoric and talking to Chuck Todd about state polling. One of the good things that will occur if Obama wins, is that Joe and his not always helpful co-host Mika Brzezinski, will have to for a day or 3, at least, be defensive.

I posted some stuff on that on other threads. I am convinced this is a campaign stunt – or at least one rich dude w/ an agenda. If you are in Europe where it’s easy to get money on intrade you should buy some bamstock. At the very least it will go up before election day and you can sell it then.

xp

Adelsons and Koch Bros gaming InTrade? Who knew?

The Intrade thing is creepy beyond words.

if it's any consolation intrade got the supreme court health care ruling wrong

cost-benefit of gaming intrade is huge - lotsa people are talking about this, costs as much as some local tv ads or whatever. and timing-wise fits w/ the romney campaign's narrative over the last few days where they act more confident than they did when they actually had better numbers. anyway take my advice and you too can retire at age 40.

so how big is the market? how much would it actually cost to move it by 10 points?

there was no reason to believe that a predictions market would be any better than any other way of predicting what was going on in roberts' head. predictions markets are good at information aggregation - but the best information that exists on this stuff suggests that this is not a 50-50 election. also intrade is out of line w/ other betting markets.

its really small, ovbs the volume changes but there was an article that suggested you could move it 10pts w/like $15k, its ridiculous the news should stop covering it imho xp

well one person did that for romney temporarily w/ 17k and the market ate it back fairly quickly. intrade is small enough that it's obvious when a swing like that is happening. it's less obvious if someone is sitting there doing it slowly.
anyway, free money imo.

xp

intrade also not immune to the biases of the sort of people who think intrade is a good idea.

i was looking at the contracts for democrats taking all three the presidency senate and house like hmmm cause it was a p good deal but then there were like 3 shares available at that price, especially w/the more obscure bets theres just no one playing

yeah the prob is it's a zero sum game

there are lots of zero sum betting games people love to play tho

this i guess is just not that fun

well it's sorta like the betting market for the super bowl winner is gonna be way bigger than the betting market for how many yards will some rb get in the game. the betting market for president attracts a lot of attention, but house races etc. not really.

the betting market for how many yards some rb will get in the superbowl is prob 10000x bigger than the entire intrade

well it helps that it's *legal* you know. if americans could easily get money on intrade it would be way bigger. I think you have to like, send a check?

I actually made a couple hundred bux on intrade last election when it was obv that the hillary/obama shares were being manipulated.

did u have to send a check

I had a euro bank account at the time

ah anyway imho it has more to do w/people not being that interested in betting on politics, there are tons of bookmaking sites where you can bet on this stuff too, also i will vote for any candidate who pledges to bring back online poker

ya I mean I am not gonna argue w/ 'americans care more about football than they do about politics'. also are better informed about football. also it's hard to root for election night results in the same way you root for a team to win. but some people might benefit from hedging I guess. can afford a ticket to france if romney wins, if obama wins you don't have to die uninsured.

ha, ok. i just set up an intrade account

It's always been my dream to die in France, so I'm not sure who to root for.

would u settle for quebec

Yes--so I think Gary Johnson's my man.

to return to the thread's most important post...

also: http://www.thefirstrow.eu/sport/baseball.html

― dell (del), Saturday, August 11, 2012 7:54 PM

really, I need a site where you don't have to download something that will disable your PC.

On further reflection I don't think I'm actually anxious about the election. I think my brain is just producing anxiety chemicals and then I'm using contingency to guess what about.

im anxious abt the election, also im drinking more caffeine than usual

Not anxious about general election. Somewhat anxious about MN marriage amendment vote, as it's dead even now (and I want this one to buck the trend of oops, surprise, +7 in favor of gay marriage ban on election day compared to polls).

Not anxious because you're confident Obama will win or because you don't think it matters who wins?

I'm anxious thinking whether today the cafeteria will make those mashed potatoes I'm so fond of.

Do we have an anxiety thread?

Yes – every political thread.

Severe Anxiety

I bought alfred-college-mashed-potatoes at 58% but the market has crashed

youre whipped

creamed

i sold romney. it felt better than buying obama.

hah

really, I need a site where you don't have to download something that will disable your PC.

haha. i haven't been on those kinda sites in a while, but if you click strategically you should be able to avoid all the things that trigger downloads

i also put all $5000 of the play $ they give you on mike huckabee

wait no i didn't it won't let me. that is bullshit.

nate silver mentioned something about writing about intrade today. I bet the market will move a few points just on that article.

well i already made 27c, so i'm basically quitting academia as i write this

"From 9:57-10:03 this morning, someone pushed the Romney's Intrade stock from 41 to 48. Total outlay was $17.8k, and they overpaid by $1250."

https://twitter.com/justinwolfers/status/260755924493418496

brad plumer wrote about this yesterday, too

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/23/how-to-manipulate-prediction-markets-and-boost-mitt-romneys-fortunes/

being anxious about the election is playing right into mittsy's plutocratic little confidence game!

when you cash out your millions remember where this good advice came from xp

oh shiiiii i am down 27c now

is that before or after my investment advice fees

Not anxious because you're confident Obama will win or because you don't think it matters who wins?

Little of both.