I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight)
10/12/12 6:42 PM
Real good day for Romney in the polls. Maybe his best yet. He's now up to almost 40% in our forecast. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

u not understand the point of ths thred

wanted to make it more exciting

kinda fascinated w/ how quickly and to what extent the polls have followed the New Media Narrative

I feel similarly, like there's some kind of feedback loop in play here

i'm kinda shocked too. i don't really think of debates as real events, so it's hard to imagine a debate moving the dials so drastically. i have to reevaluate what an event is.

you obv can't remove media from the equation but there were tons of new media narratives that didn't budge the polls at all this campaign

feel like poll respondents heard Obama lost something and are like "what? I'm not voting for a loser!"

people are stupid

even so I still expect Obama to win handily, there is no way Romney can sweep all the states he needs to.

i wonder if obama is kicking himself

eh i agree w/ silver that its lessa bout obama doing poorly than it is about romney solidifying support after a few bad months. and honestly the race was always going to tighten after that -- its just the rate at which its quickening!

yeah it's like the GOP is rallying behind their guy both out of admiration that he did something right + desperation

I like my narrative that this is where romney shoulda been post-convention and this was basically convention take 2 w/r/t getting the normal 'ya prob not gonna vote for the democrats' ppl fully on board

No longer a chance Mitt will withdraw in favor of Mitch Daniels xp

Max, otm. GOP voters have been whinging for ages about the candidate they ended up with and the fact that Mitt wasn't trounced gave them some fire in the belly. The Fox/RNC would have stoked their Obama hatred anyway so this is probably not much of a game changer.

its just the rate at which its quickening!

That's part of what's so discombobulating for me. There are a hundred ways this could have ended up exactly the same place it's at now--maybe tied, maybe one guy or the other a point up--and I wouldn't have batted an eye. It's the speed at which it's happened, the extreme reversal, and the fact that it was triggered by a debate performance that was merely listless.

GOP smelled blood in the water with so many in the New Media conceding victory to Mitt. personally I didn't think Obama did that badly, I thought both were horribly boring.

well if the race stays narrow for a few weeks it's going to come down to ground game, and OfA has quite the ground game, as one might recall.

he didn't do badly at all, but mitt is the most competent debate candidate the gop has had in a longggg time + tricky shift to the center caught obama a little off guard w/r/t what he needed to be attacking mitt on

the gop won the 'lower the expectations' game by plotting this out 20 years in advance and making sure every candidate until now was barely literate

lol

Their butlers read to them.

its funny that the gop base is getting so fired up over someone who has decided running as a republican was a surefire route to defeat

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=4555583617923&set=a.2790859940934.2136786.1541438279&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf

Oof

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/384204_4555583617923_1352854593_n.jpg

Jesus

This fucking country

single issue voter, huh

oh god oh god oh god please don't let that fucker romney win! HE HAS THE LEAD NOW! ARRRRGGGGHH!

remember when it was bush/gore and all those people were like "eh, democrat, republican, what's the difference?" and it turned out that yes, actually, there was a pretty big difference?

I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

put a sock in it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvLeQbwuKys

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/10/13/us/politics/13fivethirtyeight/13fivethirtyeight-blog480.jpg

It's been clear for years that people hate, hate, hate, for no rational reason, Obama. But those are just the vocal haters. There's got to be a sizable number of people who hate him secretly who have just been waiting for an excuse to show their hand. Perhaps those are the same people who voted for him last time but do not plan on voting for him again.

Or maybe just Romney is rigging the polls?

Pretty surprised at the people on my FB who are hitting the "Like" on Romney and Ryan. I know these people and really wonder how the hell they think they will benefit from Romney/Ryan.

You might be right about them but also facebook has been doing some funky stuff with the side ads, making it look like people "liked" things that maybe weren't what it said when they clicked it.

clicking anything on Facebook clearly hazardous to yr health and friendships

Really???????? That is some sneakyassshit!

This is basically the result of the result of the first two consecutive weeks going by in which Romney hasn't punched himself in the nuts on live tv ((c) Aero) - it'll stop once he takes up that noble practice again.

youtubing Aerosmith Late Show Nut Punch, nothin coming up

Unfortunately, I think Romney is competent enough to avoid punching himself in the nuts for another couple of weeks, especially if he can make it thought Tuesday night. That note he slipped onto his podium during the last debate. "Don't punch yourself in the nuts."

I like my narrative that this is where romney shoulda been post-convention and this was basically convention take 2 w/r/t getting the normal 'ya prob not gonna vote for the democrats' ppl fully on board

― iatee, Friday, October 12, 2012 6:58 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i agree w/this but honestly im im getting a lil queasy just thinking abt the election/seeing this thread/reading 538

wish romney would start punching himself in the nuts again

i feel like Romney still pretty consistently says something horribly ill-advised on a daily basis, the "big bird" thing just ended up too silly to be damaging (partly because of Obama's stupid ad) and other things happened at the debate that made that not the main takeaway from it. no matter how safe he tries to play it at the next debate, he'll say some dumb shit that'll probably blow back on him more.

Z S a few months ago, forecasting the election: September Mitt looks admiringly at October Mitt.

http://dellioandwoods.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/mitts1-e1329447740242.jpg?w=590

tax cuts for sex offenders
retirees sent to work in prisons
walks on stage slung w/guitar on which to imitate hendrix' star spangled banner cover for opening statement
xp

He punches himself by insisting on taking any little thing and twisting it and making an issue out of it even if it seems out of character or unrelated to his interests. His *tough stance on Benghazi* just sounds petulant.

And shallow and not very tough, actually.

As sure as night follows day (Silver):

Yet some of the plausible arguments that Democrats were making earlier in the week about Mr. Obama’s standing — like that his position would be more robust in the swing states — are looking weaker now.

I don't know anything about Silver's predictive numbers, but obviously you can't use math to judge the probability of how well either candidate might perform in a campaign.