I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

I think so, pretty much, at least until some huge paradigm shift like another Great Depression.

Our politics have been a binary system for over 150 years now. That's several wars, one depression, many recessions, several Constitutional amendments, among other things. It will take something positively seismic to bump a third or fourth party into prominence.

Sullivan just pointed to this:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107177/daily-breakdown-fox-news-poll-undermines-romneys-theory-the-race

I agree w/ that johnny fever, I just don't think the 2nd party will be called the republican party

yeah the GOP will just morph into something else. but the GOP as we've known it since most of us were born is dying and is gonna die within my lifetime.

so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen

In Atlanta? SO MANY.

― Johnny Fever, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:14 PM (1 hour ago)

so guess what was on the car in front of me when I pulled off the hwy lol

that said I don't feel a lot of passion from either side this go-around, maybe because ppl realize our problems are so deep and long term at this point they can't be fixed in one term - 10 year wars, 5 year recessions

honestly i don't see the republican party disappearing any time soon. the current two-party system's been more or less stable for a century, and i think the tea partiers breaking off and forming their own party and getting 2 percent of the vote in 2016 is more likely than the GOP breaking apart and dissolving.

The 27% crazification factor continues to hold true:

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8305/7982844829_b64b827613.jpg
27-percent-again by dengre.bj, on Flickr

Xxxxxxxxpost to Edward III, I've seen a lot of Obama stickers in NE Ohio.

GOP probably not going anywhere anytime soon

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/13/major-ron-paul-operative-jesse-benton-departs-to-work-for-the-ranking-republican-senator-mitch-mcconnell.html

it's not going anywhere, it's just going to change into a radically different animal

true. it will be interesting watching them walk back significant portions of their platform - particularly in the social arena - in the years to come. i'd be willing to bet there won't be any mainstream candidates publicly against marriage equality by 2020.

mainstream POTUS candidates, that is

I've been trying to keep my optimism in check but when I heard OH was trending obama I thought "it's curtains for mittens"

"it's curtains for mittens" is deathcab for cutie tribute band afaik

http://i.imgur.com/oIves.png

I think tea partiers backing down is likely too. People have become really rabid about politics. I mean, I'm not voting Republican but the way people talk Mitt Romney is worse than Ronald Reagan!

I agree w/ that johnny fever, I just don't think the 2nd party will be called the republican party

― iatee, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:51 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

seems much more likely the gop will just go through a fallow period then shift their coalition, but who know either is possible, a new party would be p exciting i wonder what their animal will be

a chupacabra

true. it will be interesting watching them walk back significant portions of their platform - particularly in the social arena - in the years to come. i'd be willing to bet there won't be any mainstream candidates publicly against marriage equality by 2020.

― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 00:17 (14 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Dunno, I've been seeing a lot of thinking along the lines of "The upcoming demographics are pretty socially conservative but won't vote for the Republicans while they're so racist - if they can shift that plank then the future is theirs"

assuming social conservatism will be concerned w/the same issues it is now in ten years and that whatever demographics youre trying to slice and dice will hold the same views is prob not going to work out, will is right that marriage equality will be mainstream in short order, just as interracial marriage is today

republicans can't shift the racist plank when its the only plank left

upcoming demographics aren't socially conservative

racism is what their base demands

its like if you go to a concert and the band refuses to play any of its hits

facebook win

"Brace yourself for a tidal wave of Facebook campaigning before November’s U.S. presidential election. A study of 61 million Facebook users finds that using online social networks to urge people to vote has a much stronger effect on their voting behavior than spamming them with information via television ads or phone calls, Science Now reports.

The study follows a Science paper that tracked how people influence each other’s online behavior through Facebook.

On Election Day, about 60 million people received a message that encouraged them to vote. It included links to local polling stations, a clickable “I Voted” button, and photos of six of their randomly chosen friends who had already clicked the “I Voted” button.

The photos apparently worked: People who received messages alerting them that their friends had voted were 0.39% more likely to vote than those who received messages with no social information. That translates to an additional 282,000 votes cast, the team reports online today in Nature."

right, they're fucked cause being less racist *loses* them more votes and enthusiasm than it gains xp

facebook posts are the new yard signs

except you can block all the ones you don;t want to see

btw i had a dream last night that i was elected senator and they had a super sweet party to welcome all the n00bs in

Always been interesting that republican party has been so invested in identity politics. I guess whether you think they will survive or not depends on whether they will continue on the positive feedback loop of chasing a dwindling demographic or if, at a certain tipping point, there will be a top down change when they are effectively locked out of power. Tho, again, this may underestimate how effective campaigns and media are and how fast they can change.

i could see them start to chase a (faux) libertarian, but essentially 'pro-life' demographic. it will still be lily-white tho for a long time.

so not much different than now. just an appeal to younger people by being 'cool' w/ weed and gays and maybe atheists?

not sure how that would sit w/all their people who hate weed gays and atheists

xp That's ... pretty different?

lol @ the idea of an atheist friendly right-wing party in america

I'm sure there are gop members of congress who would be fine w/ making monotheism a requirement for american citizenship

maybe 'cool' is a stretch. less antagonistic?

but still, you know, trying to drown the government in the bathtub (except for basic middle class entitlements)

Might poll the order in which the Republicans will warm to weed / gays / atheists / Latinos / women. And the point past which the return on votes lost / votes won switches (spoiler: before they get to atheists)

except you can block all the ones you don't want to see

I live in an overwhelmingly liberal, or at least Democratic leaning, inner-burb. One of my neighbors, a token Republican, had in their front yard this huge yard sign up - like, 12 feet by 8 feet or something - that proclaimed "Repeal Obamacare!" The sign was up for something like 9 months, at least, on a busy street corner, lit up at night. A few weeks ago there was an OpEd in the local paper from these neighbors, complaining about harassment - eggings, TPings, people supposedly defacing the sign. After all those months, they finally had to take the sign down. In the OpEd they went on to decry the lack of support in a supposedly open-minded community, claiming the sign was just a friendly political competition among neighbors. One of my favorite letters in response basically agreed that it was unfortunate they felt their opinion was being silenced. But, it went on to say, at least they took down their giant, ugly, fucking eye-sore of a sign.

people suck - remember that

Might poll the order in which the Republicans will warm to weed / gays / atheists / Latinos / women. And the point past which the return on votes lost / votes won switches (spoiler: before they get to atheists)

― Andrew Farrell, Friday, September 14, 2012 10:13 AM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is an interesting question, im going with gays weed women latinos atheists

fair point

maybe atheists? maybe non-Christians/Jews

cant believe no one just didnt take that sign from them, show some heart suburban chicago

(except NO MUSLINS)

Atheists vs. Christians is probably the biggest red herring in the deal. Pretty much none of the Republican policies are in line w anything Christ The Lord and Savior Who Liberals Hate espoused or practiced. Framing it this way is unhelpful for the left, as there have been plenty of Christian religious leaders coming out on helping the poor, doing something about health care, cutting back on defense, etc.

In order of how likely the Republican party is to try to embrace:

Gays (embrace in this case just means accept that you will not be able to stone them and stop trying to pass fucked up legislation)
Latinos
Stoners
Women (if this means getting all pro-abortion then really this is never)
Atheists (hahahahaha)

xpost The sign was huge and affixed to the side of the house! I don't think anyone could take it, but it clearly made for an easy target.

I can't believe it is September 2012 and this shit KEEPS HAPPENING

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, an informal advisor to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said on Thursday he and his fellow members of a state board were considering removing President Barack Obama from the Kansas ballot this November.

Kobach is part of the State Objections Board along with Attorney General Derek Schmidt and Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer, all Republicans. The Topeka Capital-Journal reported that on Thursday the board agreed to consider whether to take Obama off the ballot because they said they lacked sufficient evidence about his birth certificate.

“I don’t think it’s a frivolous objection,” Kobach said, according to the Capital-Journal. “I do think the factual record could be supplemented.”

The board is looking at a complaint filed by Joe Montgomery, of Manhattan, Kan., who claimed the Obama is not a natural born U.S. citizen and so is ineligible to be president. The man appears to be part of a group of conspiracy theorists known as “birthers,” who deny Obama’s birth certificate is real.

Late Thursday, Kobach told TPM in an email conversation that he made his “frivolous objection” comment at the end of the meeting and was responding to a specific question.

“A ‘frivolous’ argument, in legal terms, is one that cannot reasonably be made under any circumstances,” Kobach wrote. “The objection passed that very low threshold, which is not saying much.”

The board will send records requests to Hawaii, Arizona and Mississippi for more documentation of Obama’s birth. They plan to meet again on Monday to discuss the matter. Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett questioned Obama’s birth certificate earlier this year and also briefly considered removing him from the ballot.

All they are is dust on the shoulder

Wasn't gonna win Kansas anyway

xp I'm enjoying that that the Obama campaign is treating them as such, just staring them down, daring them to actually put on the hayseed clownsuit on national TV. It's not like he's going to win Kansas anyway.