I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

romney and paul might win, idk. but obama's energizing his base pretty well and the repubs just seem like assholes.

i think that's what it will come down to.

nov 6 forecast still at 80% but obama nowcast is now at 91.6%

saw a number of Romney signs in yards in Alexandria, Virginia (a mostly liberal town in Northern VA). They were outnumbered by the yards with no signs(the silent Obama majority!)

nov 6 forecast still at 80% but obama nowcast is now at 91.6%

Yeah, and a 51.2% - 47.5% popular vote landslide.

that's a landslide?

I've seen alot of R/R bumper stickers on cars in Atlanta, which is more or less a Dem oasis in a vast sea of Republicans.

Atlanta, maybe, the Atlanta metro area not so much so

xp Nah, I'm underlining Tracer's point upthread, that getting 48% of the vote isn't exactly the sign of a party on the decrease. Though some of that is just How Politics Works these days, it's been 28 years since the runner-up got less than 45% of the vote (after you throw out any third-parties).

By the estimation of Nate Silver, a "landslide" is a ten percent or higher edge over the opponent.

I assume that's electoral votes. Ten percent in the popular vote seems unlikely nowadays. :(

That's funny, I was just pondering the other day, here in Atlanta, why I've seen almost NO Romney bumperstickers this close to voting day.

Even Dukakis was within eight points with 45.7%--and the electoral was 426-111 that year. (Mondale, on the other hand, barely inched over 40%.)

when 48% becomes yr roof, you have a big picture problem, even if you can still win a (democratically unrepresentative) congress on a good year.

xp

so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen

i saw one but it turned out it said "nobama" and i thought i heard someone say "obama" the other day but they said "fauxbama."

If registered Democrats were as likely to vote as registered Republicans, the margin would be a lot wider.

so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen

In Atlanta? SO MANY.

Bama, Bama, Bo Bama
Faux Bama Fanna, Faux Bama
Fee Fie, No Bama
Obama!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MJLi5_dyn0

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qilVUxdSdKo/T9qYMQE4QsI/AAAAAAAASYw/rmb3D5ONhvo/s1600/BARRY+CHOOM+OBAMA+VERSUS+MITT+Romney.jpg

this pretty much sums it all up for me

i wonder if "close" (ie, non-landslide) elections aren't just a permanent reality now--given the media environment, polling, and the mutability of the political parties. they're kinda *too* good to allow either side to really get swamped. the "middle" will just get shifted to wherever certain antagonisms can be best exploited.

I think so, pretty much, at least until some huge paradigm shift like another Great Depression.

Our politics have been a binary system for over 150 years now. That's several wars, one depression, many recessions, several Constitutional amendments, among other things. It will take something positively seismic to bump a third or fourth party into prominence.

Sullivan just pointed to this:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107177/daily-breakdown-fox-news-poll-undermines-romneys-theory-the-race

I agree w/ that johnny fever, I just don't think the 2nd party will be called the republican party

yeah the GOP will just morph into something else. but the GOP as we've known it since most of us were born is dying and is gonna die within my lifetime.

so uh how many obama bumper stickers have y'all seen

In Atlanta? SO MANY.

― Johnny Fever, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:14 PM (1 hour ago)

so guess what was on the car in front of me when I pulled off the hwy lol

that said I don't feel a lot of passion from either side this go-around, maybe because ppl realize our problems are so deep and long term at this point they can't be fixed in one term - 10 year wars, 5 year recessions

honestly i don't see the republican party disappearing any time soon. the current two-party system's been more or less stable for a century, and i think the tea partiers breaking off and forming their own party and getting 2 percent of the vote in 2016 is more likely than the GOP breaking apart and dissolving.

The 27% crazification factor continues to hold true:

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8305/7982844829_b64b827613.jpg
27-percent-again by dengre.bj, on Flickr

Xxxxxxxxpost to Edward III, I've seen a lot of Obama stickers in NE Ohio.

GOP probably not going anywhere anytime soon

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/13/major-ron-paul-operative-jesse-benton-departs-to-work-for-the-ranking-republican-senator-mitch-mcconnell.html

it's not going anywhere, it's just going to change into a radically different animal

true. it will be interesting watching them walk back significant portions of their platform - particularly in the social arena - in the years to come. i'd be willing to bet there won't be any mainstream candidates publicly against marriage equality by 2020.

mainstream POTUS candidates, that is

I've been trying to keep my optimism in check but when I heard OH was trending obama I thought "it's curtains for mittens"

"it's curtains for mittens" is deathcab for cutie tribute band afaik

http://i.imgur.com/oIves.png

I think tea partiers backing down is likely too. People have become really rabid about politics. I mean, I'm not voting Republican but the way people talk Mitt Romney is worse than Ronald Reagan!

I agree w/ that johnny fever, I just don't think the 2nd party will be called the republican party

― iatee, Thursday, September 13, 2012 5:51 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

seems much more likely the gop will just go through a fallow period then shift their coalition, but who know either is possible, a new party would be p exciting i wonder what their animal will be

a chupacabra

true. it will be interesting watching them walk back significant portions of their platform - particularly in the social arena - in the years to come. i'd be willing to bet there won't be any mainstream candidates publicly against marriage equality by 2020.

― it's smdh time in America (will), Friday, 14 September 2012 00:17 (14 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Dunno, I've been seeing a lot of thinking along the lines of "The upcoming demographics are pretty socially conservative but won't vote for the Republicans while they're so racist - if they can shift that plank then the future is theirs"

assuming social conservatism will be concerned w/the same issues it is now in ten years and that whatever demographics youre trying to slice and dice will hold the same views is prob not going to work out, will is right that marriage equality will be mainstream in short order, just as interracial marriage is today

republicans can't shift the racist plank when its the only plank left

upcoming demographics aren't socially conservative

racism is what their base demands

its like if you go to a concert and the band refuses to play any of its hits

facebook win

"Brace yourself for a tidal wave of Facebook campaigning before November’s U.S. presidential election. A study of 61 million Facebook users finds that using online social networks to urge people to vote has a much stronger effect on their voting behavior than spamming them with information via television ads or phone calls, Science Now reports.

The study follows a Science paper that tracked how people influence each other’s online behavior through Facebook.

On Election Day, about 60 million people received a message that encouraged them to vote. It included links to local polling stations, a clickable “I Voted” button, and photos of six of their randomly chosen friends who had already clicked the “I Voted” button.

The photos apparently worked: People who received messages alerting them that their friends had voted were 0.39% more likely to vote than those who received messages with no social information. That translates to an additional 282,000 votes cast, the team reports online today in Nature."

right, they're fucked cause being less racist *loses* them more votes and enthusiasm than it gains xp

facebook posts are the new yard signs

except you can block all the ones you don;t want to see

btw i had a dream last night that i was elected senator and they had a super sweet party to welcome all the n00bs in

Always been interesting that republican party has been so invested in identity politics. I guess whether you think they will survive or not depends on whether they will continue on the positive feedback loop of chasing a dwindling demographic or if, at a certain tipping point, there will be a top down change when they are effectively locked out of power. Tho, again, this may underestimate how effective campaigns and media are and how fast they can change.