I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

lawl

http://dsdtglobal.com/images/nodding_head_1_.gif

if obama win ohio or florida its over say good night

imagining Madonna joining Obama on stage election night to duet on "Take a Bow."

You've just given me a reason to vote for Romney.

I'd probably wait a couple of days till that last jobs report registers in the polling. Obama definitely seems to be ahead; I still see it more like 65/35, but then I spent most of '08 waiting for the roof to cave in. There's still the debates, still the various September economic reports, and I bet one more unexpected development. Canada severed all diplomatic ties with Iran yesterday, and now Netanyahu has called us "The leaders of the Western World." (Take that, America!) So the we've-fallen-behind-Canada-as-a-world-power issue will obviously loom large.

I honestly think Obama's going to beat Romney like a tied-up goat in the debates.

I doubt debates will change anyone's mind.

Maybe they'll change Romney's mind? Certainly I think they'll hurt Ryan, which will affect Republican future.

"anyone" seems a little broad.

I still see it more like 65/35

i don't mean to nitpick, but the reason i like 538 is that nate actually deploys his model to come up w/ his numbers. he doesn't make them up based on anecdotal evidence or his gut feeling. not that he's necessarily right and you're wrong, but i trust him more

Maybe they'll change Romney's mind?

maybe he'll drop out after the first one! ("Eh, fuck this").

not that he's necessarily right and you're wrong, but i trust him more

Wise move. Whenever I got discouraged in '08, Silver was a beacon of sanity, for the exact reasons you mention.

I have a lot of belief in the 538 statistical model; I'm mostly boggling at how high that percentage chance of winning is and think it will correct back down over the next week.

i don't understand why the nowcast thing turned around so abruptly. is that all the dnc convention?

Watching Ryan try to bluster his way through the whole 'I voted for sequestration, but I didn't really, and besides it's Obama's fault' thing yesterday I envision him coming out of the debates looking more weaselly, not less.

watching Alaskan reactions to the Biden/Palin debate really made me realize that most ppl who actually watch the debates have already made up their minds who will win them before they even start

yeah it's like rooting for your team

It's an 80/20 split in favour of a 51%-49% rousing sweep against a 49%-51% humbling defeat.

Yeah, that's why I downplay the odds. I realize Silver's model is partly based on realistic routes to victory, and that Romney's are few. It's just that so many of the alleged swing-state margins are very small.

All it would take is footage of Obama, when no-one's not looking, pouring a beer into a plant pot...

when no-one's not looking

I actually think the racist vote will be smaller this year than it was in '08, for the simple reason that the black guy already won once, and the world didn't end. They're demoralized.

Plus: more racists have died in the last four years.

Romney's team working overtime on the "Look it's okay to have voted for him, lots of exciting historical reasons for voting for him, but it's okay to feel that maybe he wasn't right for the job. Right? Riiight? *cough*affirmativeaction" though.

^That's the vibe I'm getting from the crap I hear from my mum. "He's a very nice man, I'm sure, but he *just isn't up to the job*" but srsly al these buzzwords and dog-whistles remind me of watching waves hitting a beach with less and less force as the tide goes out. Have been applying scorched-earth policy to family members by just calling them on the crypto-racism or just plain presenting them with how the three viewpoints they simultaneously hold are incompatible and maybe they better not repeat that shit outside the family lest they be taken as COMPLETELY FUCKING STUPID.

Sigh.

Just ask them how much their life saving were down in 2008 vs. now.

is "He's a very nice man, I'm sure, but he *just isn't up to the job* a dog whistle? I've been hearing variants since Reagan.

Obama's going to beat Romney like a tied-up goat

I have no idea who's gonna win but this is my new favorite phrase

xp When it's my mom saying it, YES. She has never pulled this shit when talking about another president, and it is as if Obama has to be three times as good at presidentin' as the incredibly meatheaded white candidates for her to decide he was competent. Plus, creative Michelle Obama dissing, how else am I gonna get the angry white person's latest remix of what they say when they really mean 'uppity' :-(.

debates don't really change anyone's mind (Alfred OTM - the people who tune in and pay attention are already partisans) but they are usually pretty entertaining and duh Obama is gonna murder Romney how can there be any doubt

oh yah def, suzy

Obama might suddenly blurt out, "Goddamn, America!" That would be a problem.

i don't understand why the nowcast thing turned around so abruptly. is that all the dnc convention?

― caek, Monday, September 10, 2012 10:26 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

silver had a post saying basically his formula assumed a baseline convention bounce larger for the challenger than the incumbent which romney really needed but when he didnt get it it let to a fairly large correction, then obama did get a bounce so

Silver's got a book coming

Don't think debates in and of themselves change minds, but a clearly terrible performance can definitely hurt. Palin, for example, was helped by not totally flubbing it. Had she totally fucked up, her reputation would have eroded even faster. If Romney and Ryan simply hang in there, I think they benefit. But if Obama and Biden hammer them, they definitely come out weaker. The challenge is how to do that without coming off like Gore in 2000, but neither Obama nor Biden seem that sort.

I'd probably wait a couple of days till that last jobs report registers in the polling.

― clemenza, Monday, September 10, 2012 10:15 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

jobs are a huge deal in this election obvs, individual job reports i suspect not so much, particularly when they keep being in the same ballpark aka limping toward recovery, which at this point p clearly favors obama

debates matter, particularly if a sweet zing occurs

I think the most important aspect of the DNC came via Clinton, when he reminded everyone how badly the US was losing jobs in 2008. That and saving the auto industry is prima facia proof that while things may not be good, we are certainly better off. There is absolutely no way to refute that. The narrative was so mired in the miserable jobs situation that many lost sight of the fact that it could be much, much worse.

this guy thinks michelle was better than bill http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/09/the-extremely-persuasive-michelle-obama

more racists have died in the last four years.

And... more have been born into racist families in racist neighborhoods in a society that has hundreds of years of institutionalized racism coursing through its veins.

Wait, four year olds can vote?

GOTTA CORNER THE INFANT ELECTORATE

Can I just point out to everyone boggling at Obama at 80% how absolutely horribly low public perception of the Republican party is and what an awful candidate Romney is. It's mind-boggling that anyone would vote that guy, frankly.

ha I was going to make Tracer's post but from the standpoint of "how many of the dead racists have been replaced by racists newly legal to vote" in order to avoid that joke

do like the idea of Romney pandering to the toddler vote tho

"Palin, for example, was helped by not totally flubbing it. Had she totally fucked up, her reputation would have eroded even faster."

How could it have eroded any faster?!?!?

when they keep being in the same ballpark aka limping toward recovery, which at this point p clearly favors obama

Yeah, that does seem to be the case; expectations have been adjusted, and 50,000-100,000 seems to be good enough. If a really bad report came through, something in the red, I'm sure that would present a problem.

Trying to imagine the world where Romney's trying to hang with DJ Lance Rock.

child voting rights is a worthy topic for speculative fiction imho

(also Alex, I don't doubt for a second that Obama is an overwhelming favorite at the moment, I just thought that American stubbornness re: changing one's mind would have mitigated more of that than it actually has based on Silver's model, hence me expecting a percentage chance number in the 70s rather than just over 80)

If a really bad report came through, something in the red, I'm sure that would present a problem.

― clemenza, Monday, September 10, 2012 12:54 PM (44 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i think wed maybe have to see a trend for this to matter, like two maybe three months, jobs move slow is the thing, an 08 like financial collapse on the other hand could bring down obama p fast