I am beginning to become scared that Romney/Ryan will win. Can smart people please post here and say reassuring things to convince me that he won't?

static compared to previous elections or static throughout this election? because i can believe the latter. everyone says bump this and bump that but it feels like everything that's happened in the last few months has just confirmed for people what they already believe and made them more confident in the choice they made ages ago.

Romney increasingly feels like a John Kerry figure whose only real appeal is that he isn't his opponent

Yeah, I get the impression that most of the votes for Romney will be grudging votes for [REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE].

That's the only reason I voted for Kerry in 2004. He wasn't W.

(But I lived in Tennessee, so it didn't matter at all.)

I mean, this is the guy who, in the debates four years ago, all the other candidates treated like a joke. It's hard to believe a lot of Republican voters aren't actively choking down that same sentiment now.

# of undecided voters is something like 3%, which is lower than in prior election years

New polling from The Washington Post and ABC News shows there are fewer genuinely undecided voters during the 2012 election campaign than there have been in any of the last three elections.

And less than one in five voters says there is any chance at all that he or she will change his or her mind.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-incredible-shrinking--and-increasingly-valuable--undecided-voter/2012/07/23/gJQAcRMH4W_blog.html

I'll def become an undecided voter for cash.

ah, interesting. thanks for doing the searching i was too lazy to do myself! (xpost)

Romney increasingly feels like a John Kerry figure whose only real appeal is that he isn't his opponent

― IN REAL LIFE (some dude), Friday, September 7, 2012 5:55 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

To prove this point, Kerry is playing the Romney role in mock debates with Obama.

yup, its not enough to just be against something

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-approval-jumps-after-dnc?ref=fpb

I have a few thoughts: first, Romney's bounce from both the VP pick and the convention (as seen on the RCP average) has crested, and it's already returning to a near-tie with slight Obama advantage. Obama has retained an advantage in electoral math even while Mitt surged (see 538 for reassurance on this point).

Second, note that the recent Romney/Ryan surge has accompanied a large amount of pandering to the knee-jerk anti-tax, knee-jerk anti-government Tea Party right - i.e., people they should have already had. People who were not even potential Obama voters. People, in other words, that the GOP should already have sewn up by now. So everything Romney/Ryan do to pacify this base can actually be seen as a sign of weakness. If Obama was such a failure, and so obviously inept, then R/R shouldn't need to do anything but breathe for a few more months. As it is, I feel that it's telling, and NOT a good sign, that they have to keep slinging red meat to the base.

Third, I've heard a lot of crowing from the right about how ooh, Obama's been below 50%, that's a bad place for him to be; incumbents who are below 50% at this point are in trouble. Perhaps, but, I don't think that means that people genuinely, positively, prefer Romney. And I think in the current environment it won't be enough to just say "vote for me because I'm not the other guy." That hasn't reliably worked. (See Deeds vs. McDonnel in Va.)

Finally, though I'm sanguine about Mr. Obama's chances, I have striven to inoculate myself against the possibility that I'm wrong. I look for ways to process a potential Romney win as being paradoxically good in the long run. Note: as Lindsey Graham pointed out, demographically, the current Republican message is doomed. You can't just run on the angry white guy energy forever; indeed, this year may be the high-water mark of that kind of sentiment.

So okay, let's say that the knee-jerk anti-tax, anti-government, anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-environment folks win out this time. One might nurture a small hope that the public will see the results of that body of policy being enacted, and realize (again) that it doesn't work. The electorate may need to really see (again!) that "get government out of the way" does not, in fact, lead to a cascade of prosperity that lifts all boats. Such as result may not totally kill that idea, but it will make the Tea Party argument harder to make credible in future.

my concern with your last point is if the economy does rebound (however slightly) on its own accord in the short term, those fucking clowns will all be like "SEE!?"

yea for exactly four years

anyway w/r/t Kerry vs Romney, dems didn't secretly hate Kerry.

xp

i think i mightve secretly hated him

i thought he was lame

dem base/dem pros/dem likelies were all still hopelessly garbled and mixed up about THE WAR in 04, and the whole election was a referendum on that.

I look for ways to process a potential Romney win as being paradoxically good in the long run.

i'm not sure romney won't govern pretty closely to how obama will

congress

Congress may cause that on some things

i'm not sure romney won't govern pretty closely to how obama will

On many economic and defense issues maybe, but not social ones and not on court appointees. Plus Romney will want even more drill baby drill for oil

It does seem like Congress will be the big wildcard here. If we end up with another Republican House and Democratic Senate who are loathe to compromise, then it seems like not much may happen regardless of who is President. Big changes only seem likely to happen if control of Congress lines up with control of the Presidency. I guess I haven't heard much about projections for gains/losses of Congressional seats by the two parties this cycle, with all the focus on the Presidential race, but the Congressional races could end up being more significant.

Romney's foreign policy pronouncements (Iran! Russia! Syria!) have been radical, so you'd have to hope an apple knocks sense into him, plus hope that the apple doesn't hurt him enough so that Paul Ryan must take over.

This site projects Republican keeping control of the House and gaining a slim Senate majority:
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php
I guess Dems could still threaten to filibuster, but it would be harder politically to maintain a hard line with a Republican in the White House as well.

Since the most likely outcome is a Republican-controlled Congress and Obama in the White House, then I guess it was appropriate that his entrance music on Wednesday night was Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down". The main thing he can offer Democrats for the next 2 years is that he'll take a hard line in negotiating with Republicans in Congress.

http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/09/obama-bounces-up-to-52-approval-48-to.html

Since the most likely outcome is a Republican-controlled Congress and Obama in the White House, then I guess it was appropriate that his entrance music on Wednesday night was Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down". The main thing he can offer Democrats for the next 2 years is that he'll take a hard line in negotiating with Republicans in Congress.

may 1000 vetos bloom

so my bet is on a Senate with 51 GOP, 47 Dems, and 2 Independents (who will caucus w/ Dems)

what's everyone's feeling on the House? are the Dems going to pick up any seats, or will they lose even more?

Dems ain't getting the House.

they'll pick up seats but won't take it

oh yeah, no way they're taking it. just typing out loud when i saw that that electionprojection site has Dems actually losing 2 seats

http://2012presidentialelectionpredictions.com/images/top2012.png

http://2012presidentialelectionpredictions.com/images/rightonline12.jpg

i'm not sure romney won't govern pretty closely to how obama will

Ho-lee shit. Was Mordy visited by an angel?

Romney can only lead the party in the direction the party wants to go. This would be forcefully impressed upon him if he won the presidency. This means that Romney would be strongly pulled to the right of Obama, no matter what his personal ideology might be.

it doesn't matter if you turn RIGHT or LEFT when BOTH ROADS lead to the SAME PLACE.

-- http://www.guzer.com/pictures/mr_cool_ice.jpg

yup. dude would be more right-wing than bush, not because he 'actually is' but because he doesn't have an ounce of credibility within the gop. xp

So okay, let's say that the knee-jerk anti-tax, anti-government, anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-environment folks win out this time. One might nurture a small hope that the public will see the results of that body of policy being enacted, and realize (again) that it doesn't work. The electorate may need to really see (again!) that "get government out of the way" does not, in fact, lead to a cascade of prosperity that lifts all boats. Such as result may not totally kill that idea, but it will make the Tea Party argument harder to make credible in future.

This feels supremely optimistic. The ties between big money, government, and the media are being tied tighter and tighter every election cycle, and the Tea Party argument is not going away. If anything it will get worse. Our only hope is the total collapse of mainstream media via some kind of asteroid or EMP aimed at all cable TV satellites.

As for Romney not really being that different than Obama, I wouldn't be surprised if he severely ramped up defense spending, goes on a government subsidy binge, and takes a chainsaw to whatever economic regulations are still holding up our precariously set house of cards. His whole career has been making a fortune while playing with other people's money, and it's silly to think he would stop doing this if he suddenly found himself in the White House with a stack of blank checks.

The most important of the many lessons learned from George W. Bush is how much lasting damage one president can manage in just four years.

BOTH ROADS lead to the SAME PLACE

The GOP has become considerably crazier in 2012 than it was in 2000, when Nader made his pitch that both parties were alike, because both were captive to corporations. Both roads do not lead to the same place atm.

I think imagining a Romney presidency is basically, take whatever issue, and imagine how it would be approached from a purely "Make as much profit as possible" perspective.

The most important of the many lessons learned from George W. Bush is how much lasting damage one president can manage in just four years.

And how easy it is to completely erase that from the public's memory.

I think imagining a Romney presidency is basically, take whatever issue, and imagine how it would be approached from a purely "Make as much profit as possible" perspective.

pretty sure he won't approach tax revenue from this perspective

or defense spending

"Fellow Americans, I have looked at the numbers and it is my conclusion that the American people can no longer afford a National Park system. This sale of the parks to the Disney Corporation will strengthen our country, by contributing to the economy, not stealing from it in the form of grotesquely overblown subsidies that benefit only a few RV owners."

"Myself and my cabinet will be granted a one time special dividend of $100b, any questions."

Last two posts remind me that, even though I think it's possible, it really is hard to imagine Romney as president.

The Dems have become considerably more militaristic and authoritarian in 2012 than they were in 2000 -- permanent kill lists for the POTUS, warrantless everything, "USA" chants over a dead old has-been, etc. They are basically 1992 Republicans who like gays.