2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

is there any evidence that it is possible to make political analysis your vocation without becoming so accustomed to the void of accountability that you turn into the moral and intellectual equivalent of http://www.ngsprints.co.uk/images/M/689547.jpg

ooooo i like the glowy bits, we can make money off that

McCain seems not to know who Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero is, or whether Spain is our ally, or perhaps where Spain even is:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/bizarre-mccain-remarks-ap_n_127346.html

Cranky Grandpa needs his nap, apparently

and his globe.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/411K0MSXVPL._SL500_AA280_.jpg

http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Joe_Biden
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Barack_Obama
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=John_McCain

and teh best one of allls:

http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Sarah_Palin

Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator, yup yup absolutely

J0hn D and others, I've never claimed to be discussing anything about blue collar/dysfunctional voters that wasn't completely anecdotal and/or based on years of living with people who are not as inclusive as the rest of us here. The flipside of this is that my better-off relatives who go through the same shit don't rationalize etc, they just accept their punishment or buy a decent lawyer when their DUIs come up. I am not classist: plenty of people who are not well off go about their lives with honesty and there is no poverty bar to douchery.

Tom I can't really figure out what your beef is with silver but if you're annoyed that he's not making firm predictions I think you're barking up the wrong tree...

http://www.slate.com/id/2200301/

did anyone ask palin about dinosaurs last night?

R2000/dKos tracking (9/18): Obama 49-43

Rasmussen tracking (9/18): tied at 48

CBS/NYT (9/12-16): Obama 48-43 (RVs)(+7 from last week, +2 from pre-conventions)
among likely voters: Obama 49-44
who do you think will win: Obama 45-38
among white women: Obama 47-45 (+21 from last week, +7 from pre-conventions)
among Clinton supporters: Obama 65-25 (70-22 LVs)
among men: McCain 48-42 (+6 from last week)
among Obama RVs: 79-18 mind made up (+3 from last week)
among McCain RVs: 81-19 mind made up (-2 from last week)
party crossover delta: McCain +4 (+3 from last week)
Obama a different kind of democrat: 47-48 (Kerry in July 2004: 30-55; Clinton in October 1994: 47-44)
McCain a different kind of Republican: 40-57 (Bush in August 2000: 35-52)
would Obama bring change: 65-29 (+13 from July)
would McCain bring change: 37-59 (+15 from July)
would McCain be Bush II-more conservative-less conservative: 46-22-26 (last week: 42-30-20; little change from August)
can you relate to Obama: 57-40
can you relate to McCain: 47-51
does Obama share America's values: 66-27
does McCain share America's values: 61-33
is Obama prepared to be President: 48-46 (+12 from last week)
is McCain prepared to be President: 71-24
Obama favorables: 45-35-19 (+3 from last week) (among independents: 41-31)
McCain favorables: 44-37-19 (-2 from last week) (among independents 43-27)
Biden favorables: 38-17-45 (+6 from last week) (among Clinton supporters: 63-3-34)
Palin favorables: 40-30-30 (-12 from last week) (among Clinton supporters: 20-48-33)
can relate to Biden: 43-42 (+4 from last week)
can related to Palin: 55-42 (-13 from last week)
Biden prepared to be Veep: 74-11
Palin prepared to be Veep: 42-52 (-15 from last week)
is Biden qualified to be Prez or concerned about same: 65-24
is Palin qualified to be Prez or concerned about same: 33-62

Quinnipiac (9/11-15): Obama 49-45
among independents: Obama 46-45 (-5 since before conventions)
among men: McCain 50-43 (+2 since before conventions)
among women: Obama 54-40 (no change)
Obama favorability: 56-33
McCain favorability: 54-34
Biden favorability: 40-23-36
Palin favorability: 40-30-28

Time national (9/11-15): among noncollege white women: McCain by 18 points

SUSA New Mexico (9/14-16): Obama 52-44
among those whose mind is made up (86%): Obama 54-45
among those who could change their mind (12%): McCain 45-40-8 other-6 undecided
among hispanics: Obama 69-28
among independents: Obama 51-42
among men: Obama 54-44
among women: Obama 51-45

SUSA Ohio (9/12-14): McCain 49-45
among those whose mind is made up (80%): Obama 49-48
among those who could change their mind (18%): McCain 55-31
among independents: McCain 45-44
among women: Obama 49-45
among those for whom the economy is most important: Obama 52-44
crossover voting delta: McCain 19-7
among liberals: Obama 77-17
among 18-34s: Obama 53-40
greater Cleveland: Obama 51-44
greater Columbus: McCain 52-41
greater Dayton: McCain 53-41
SE Ohio: non-meaningful number of respondents

SUSA Virginia (9/12-14): Obama 50-46
among those whose mind is made up (83%): Obama 51-48
among those who could change their mind (18%): Obama 42-38-8 other-11 undecided
among men: tied at 48 (+11 from last week)
among women: Obama 52-43 (marginal difference from before Palin pick)
among independents: McCain 48-44 (+17)
among 50+: McCain 48-47 (+13 from last week)
under $50K: Obama 58-38 (+14 from last week)
Party Crossover voting delta: Obama 17-12 (+4 from last week)
Shenandoah: McCain 53-44 (movement to Obama)
NoVA: Obama 51-43 (movement to McCain)
Southeast VA: Obama 56-40
Central VA: Obama 50-46 (movement to Obama)

Selzer/Indy Star-WTHR Indiana: Obama 47-44

arg, I wasn't consistent with my +'s and -'s - +'s: in the national polls, they're + or - for the candidate listed on the same line (tho McCain's movement among men in CBS/NYT should be - rather than +), while in SUSA VA, all +'s are in Obama's favor

You need some graphics.

he was right
http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this.jpg

http://www.butterscotch-pony.com/images/products/butterscotch-pony4.jpg

xp

oh i think it's still very close, but the sky is not falling

more people on this thread need to be like the GAMBLER

I am confident about the fate of the world!

more people on this thread THE INTERNET need to be like the GAMBLER

dynamic rendition

Sabato's (mental) map:

Tossups
Colorado - some Obama lean, but could be because of local convention bounce
Michigan - should come home to Obama on party loyalty
New Hampshire - primary results say don't believe the polls?
Nevada - Dem registration vs. next-door-neighbor
Ohio - 'nuff said
Pennsylvania - should come home to Obama on party loyalty
Virginia - leans slightly McCain, but could come back with better Obama performance in NoVA or won in any event on the ground

Leaning McCain
Florida - McCain has advantage, but hard to predict
Missouri - not bloody likely [me: ground game CYA?]
North Carolina - probable McCain, but looks closer on the ground?

Likely McCain
Indiana - but some next-door-neighbor impact

Now out of reach - Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota

http://www.nysun.com/opinion/underestimating-obama/86083/

http://i38.tinypic.com/21dgbpx.gif

Nader, Barr ballot news:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/09/nader_will_be_on_florida_ballo.html

http://blogs.courant.com/on_background/2008/09/bob-barr-sues-texas-over-ballo.html

You may begin your "two-parties-only" fascist rants now.

those damn Fascists and their dual-party governments

I think your Captain Midnight decoder ring needs a tune-up, Morbs.

Tupac Shakur, for example, would not be as iconic a rapper if he had been taller and bulkier, had a full head of hair, and did not have large eyes. He brought out a parental instinct in men and women, and so does Mr. Obama.

I LIKE THIS POLITICAL ANALYSIS

kerm, saying with a picture what i couldnt say in a 1000 words

I have always wanted to wrap tupac in a blanket, give him a cookie and some warm milk

Especially now.

he keeps dropping the cookie

perhaps I will just take obama to the park and throw a ball to him

I want to wrap John McWhorter in a blanket.

http://media.npr.org/programs/morning/features/2006/aug/race_series/john_mcwhorter200.jpg

Barr is completely OTM re: Texas.

tyler perry for president

There aren't enough fat suits in politics. He dated Tyra, he could make her first lady.

T Perry??? lol, the American President's Beard

I would like to wrap mccain in a blanket, and put him in a chair by the window overlooking the garden. look, john, a rabbit. do you remember rabbits?

poor john, it's just the dementia talking those horrible swear words. i know he didn't mean a word of it, honey. oh come now, there's no need to cry.

BOXCAR

So that's what the reboot of For Better or For Worse was all about.

Oh yes, McCain is totes Grandpa Jim. Of course, in the foobverse Grandpa Jim dies in 2009.

foobverse

I have never encountered this term before and now I feel like someone reading Gerald Feinberg's discussion of tachyons.

A whole new world.

my favorite was when grandpa jim told that spanish reporter to go back to mexico

lolz with Chuck

She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials," Hagel said in an interview published Thursday by the Omaha World-Herald.

At first I seriously thought this read "Obama World-Herald".

Obamaha

Home of Obama's winning electoral vote.