2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

wow i didn't miss your dumb shit

i can read sarcasm on the internet very well sir

:)

i was being earnest

No, you were being HANDBAG.

My mom pointed out that blue collar men were LOVING the Palin pick and these are usually the guys who want a free pass for their small indiscretions eg. DUI because IT'S JUST NOT FAIR, nor was it fair when they got busted for net porn at the last job they got fired from. These are the tools who wanna be that little bit outlaw until some other douchebag steals their rims or something. Then they get all Law and Order.

Had an email from O campaign purporting to be from Michelle saying that it's going to be women's week and OH WHAT FUN WE'LL HAVE. Michelle has earned the karmic right to hand Palin's ass back to her, elegantly.

that should be interesting

surprised deeznuts hasn't started a FOO Poll: Palin vs M. Obama

white collar people never dui

No, they do sometimes. The only people that NEVER do are, like, Kennedys.

okay, but at least they don't look at porn at work

Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.

source?

yeah i was wondering about that too

Kennedys are polo collar!

Sorry, but I have never heard one single white-collar person moan about their DUI as if they were not there and it was the cop's fault for breathalysing them. My sis has the blue collar friends/husband whose catalogues of misadventure are SO NOT THEIR FAULT. Please...

source?

― Alfred, Lord Sotosyn, Thursday, September 18, 2008 12:00 AM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

yeah i was wondering about that too

― no (stunzeed) LZD (deeznuts), Thursday, September 18, 2008 12:01 AM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

it's called Google guys

http://www.google.com/search?q=Obama+leads+McCain+54+percent+to+38+percent+among+all+women.+He+holds+a+two+point+edge+among+white+women%2C+a+21+percentage+point+swing+in+Obama%27s+direction+from+one+week+ago.&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

xpost The Ronnie Dobbs complex. "Y'all are brutalizing me."

i have never heard any any-collar anyone not complain about how unfair their dui was. this goes hand in hand with how most people on the arrest end of anything are convinced that they got the raw deal. human nature, really, and not that surprising.

suzy yr class analysis there relies a little too heavily on anecdotal evidence I fear

It's possible -- likely, even -- that she was part of such an insular community that it honest-to-God never occurred to her that there should be a difference between personal and professional. That would explain a whole lot, no?

ok so I am against the asinine hacking stunt but the people thinking they were using their personal emails because Yahoo is more user-friendly or something are off base.

from that nyt sunday story

Interviews show that Ms. Palin runs an administration that puts a premium on loyalty and secrecy. The governor and her top officials sometimes use personal e-mail accounts for state business; dozens of e-mail messages obtained by The New York Times show that her staff members studied whether that could allow them to circumvent subpoenas seeking public records.

she's so much like Bush it's not funny. that story was great btw.

Yeah I'm pretty sure her using yahoomail was not her being "naive".

but gmail is so much better

i have never heard any any-collar anyone not complain about how unfair their dui was. this goes hand in hand with how most people on the arrest end of anything are convinced that they got the raw deal. human nature, really, and not that surprising.

yeah, and people w/ drinking probs (most of your duis) not really known for taking responsibility for their actions. that transcends yer socio-economic status pretty much always

or...not

http://www.236.com/video/2008/get_your_war_on_8919.php

My mom pointed out that blue collar men were LOVING the Palin pick and these are usually the guys who want a free pass for their small indiscretions eg. DUI because IT'S JUST NOT FAIR

So what you're saying is these people have met at most like 1, 2, or maybe 3 "blue collar men" ever? John D. otm.

nate silver is officially on my dipshit list

Our model is designed to react somewhat conservatively to new information, lest it mistake noise for signal.

accordingly, his website should be able to tell us who wins by about november 11th. keep riding that baseball cred, and welcome to the one trade in the world where negligible credibility ("i'm just reporting on what other people say") is considered a plus

is there any evidence that it is possible to make political analysis your vocation without becoming so accustomed to the void of accountability that you turn into the moral and intellectual equivalent of http://www.ngsprints.co.uk/images/M/689547.jpg

ooooo i like the glowy bits, we can make money off that

McCain seems not to know who Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero is, or whether Spain is our ally, or perhaps where Spain even is:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/18/bizarre-mccain-remarks-ap_n_127346.html

Cranky Grandpa needs his nap, apparently

and his globe.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/411K0MSXVPL._SL500_AA280_.jpg

http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Joe_Biden
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Barack_Obama
http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=John_McCain

and teh best one of allls:

http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=Sarah_Palin

Sarah Palin Baby Name Generator, yup yup absolutely

J0hn D and others, I've never claimed to be discussing anything about blue collar/dysfunctional voters that wasn't completely anecdotal and/or based on years of living with people who are not as inclusive as the rest of us here. The flipside of this is that my better-off relatives who go through the same shit don't rationalize etc, they just accept their punishment or buy a decent lawyer when their DUIs come up. I am not classist: plenty of people who are not well off go about their lives with honesty and there is no poverty bar to douchery.

Tom I can't really figure out what your beef is with silver but if you're annoyed that he's not making firm predictions I think you're barking up the wrong tree...

http://www.slate.com/id/2200301/

did anyone ask palin about dinosaurs last night?

R2000/dKos tracking (9/18): Obama 49-43

Rasmussen tracking (9/18): tied at 48

CBS/NYT (9/12-16): Obama 48-43 (RVs)(+7 from last week, +2 from pre-conventions)
among likely voters: Obama 49-44
who do you think will win: Obama 45-38
among white women: Obama 47-45 (+21 from last week, +7 from pre-conventions)
among Clinton supporters: Obama 65-25 (70-22 LVs)
among men: McCain 48-42 (+6 from last week)
among Obama RVs: 79-18 mind made up (+3 from last week)
among McCain RVs: 81-19 mind made up (-2 from last week)
party crossover delta: McCain +4 (+3 from last week)
Obama a different kind of democrat: 47-48 (Kerry in July 2004: 30-55; Clinton in October 1994: 47-44)
McCain a different kind of Republican: 40-57 (Bush in August 2000: 35-52)
would Obama bring change: 65-29 (+13 from July)
would McCain bring change: 37-59 (+15 from July)
would McCain be Bush II-more conservative-less conservative: 46-22-26 (last week: 42-30-20; little change from August)
can you relate to Obama: 57-40
can you relate to McCain: 47-51
does Obama share America's values: 66-27
does McCain share America's values: 61-33
is Obama prepared to be President: 48-46 (+12 from last week)
is McCain prepared to be President: 71-24
Obama favorables: 45-35-19 (+3 from last week) (among independents: 41-31)
McCain favorables: 44-37-19 (-2 from last week) (among independents 43-27)
Biden favorables: 38-17-45 (+6 from last week) (among Clinton supporters: 63-3-34)
Palin favorables: 40-30-30 (-12 from last week) (among Clinton supporters: 20-48-33)
can relate to Biden: 43-42 (+4 from last week)
can related to Palin: 55-42 (-13 from last week)
Biden prepared to be Veep: 74-11
Palin prepared to be Veep: 42-52 (-15 from last week)
is Biden qualified to be Prez or concerned about same: 65-24
is Palin qualified to be Prez or concerned about same: 33-62

Quinnipiac (9/11-15): Obama 49-45
among independents: Obama 46-45 (-5 since before conventions)
among men: McCain 50-43 (+2 since before conventions)
among women: Obama 54-40 (no change)
Obama favorability: 56-33
McCain favorability: 54-34
Biden favorability: 40-23-36
Palin favorability: 40-30-28

Time national (9/11-15): among noncollege white women: McCain by 18 points

SUSA New Mexico (9/14-16): Obama 52-44
among those whose mind is made up (86%): Obama 54-45
among those who could change their mind (12%): McCain 45-40-8 other-6 undecided
among hispanics: Obama 69-28
among independents: Obama 51-42
among men: Obama 54-44
among women: Obama 51-45

SUSA Ohio (9/12-14): McCain 49-45
among those whose mind is made up (80%): Obama 49-48
among those who could change their mind (18%): McCain 55-31
among independents: McCain 45-44
among women: Obama 49-45
among those for whom the economy is most important: Obama 52-44
crossover voting delta: McCain 19-7
among liberals: Obama 77-17
among 18-34s: Obama 53-40
greater Cleveland: Obama 51-44
greater Columbus: McCain 52-41
greater Dayton: McCain 53-41
SE Ohio: non-meaningful number of respondents

SUSA Virginia (9/12-14): Obama 50-46
among those whose mind is made up (83%): Obama 51-48
among those who could change their mind (18%): Obama 42-38-8 other-11 undecided
among men: tied at 48 (+11 from last week)
among women: Obama 52-43 (marginal difference from before Palin pick)
among independents: McCain 48-44 (+17)
among 50+: McCain 48-47 (+13 from last week)
under $50K: Obama 58-38 (+14 from last week)
Party Crossover voting delta: Obama 17-12 (+4 from last week)
Shenandoah: McCain 53-44 (movement to Obama)
NoVA: Obama 51-43 (movement to McCain)
Southeast VA: Obama 56-40
Central VA: Obama 50-46 (movement to Obama)

Selzer/Indy Star-WTHR Indiana: Obama 47-44

arg, I wasn't consistent with my +'s and -'s - +'s: in the national polls, they're + or - for the candidate listed on the same line (tho McCain's movement among men in CBS/NYT should be - rather than +), while in SUSA VA, all +'s are in Obama's favor

You need some graphics.

he was right
http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this.jpg

http://www.butterscotch-pony.com/images/products/butterscotch-pony4.jpg

xp

oh i think it's still very close, but the sky is not falling

more people on this thread need to be like the GAMBLER

I am confident about the fate of the world!

more people on this thread THE INTERNET need to be like the GAMBLER

dynamic rendition

Sabato's (mental) map:

Tossups
Colorado - some Obama lean, but could be because of local convention bounce
Michigan - should come home to Obama on party loyalty
New Hampshire - primary results say don't believe the polls?
Nevada - Dem registration vs. next-door-neighbor
Ohio - 'nuff said
Pennsylvania - should come home to Obama on party loyalty
Virginia - leans slightly McCain, but could come back with better Obama performance in NoVA or won in any event on the ground

Leaning McCain
Florida - McCain has advantage, but hard to predict
Missouri - not bloody likely [me: ground game CYA?]
North Carolina - probable McCain, but looks closer on the ground?

Likely McCain
Indiana - but some next-door-neighbor impact

Now out of reach - Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota

http://www.nysun.com/opinion/underestimating-obama/86083/

http://i38.tinypic.com/21dgbpx.gif

Nader, Barr ballot news:

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2008/09/nader_will_be_on_florida_ballo.html

http://blogs.courant.com/on_background/2008/09/bob-barr-sues-texas-over-ballo.html

You may begin your "two-parties-only" fascist rants now.