a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

Marie Colvin was on the news just last night

"That's enough now, the regime must go," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy after his government confirmed the two deaths.

Good luck in convincing the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians about this.

I guess folks upset over civilian deaths from drone attacks are also bothered by ugly regime attacks from the likes of Syria (or maybe they just expect better from the US and other Western nations that profess to be better and state that they are trying to avoid casualties, while the likes of Syria are clearly intending to cause them)

Marie Colvin was on the news just last night

Yeah, was just going to say that.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/22/marie-colvin

I guess folks upset over civilian deaths from drone attacks are also bothered by ugly regime attacks from the likes of Syria (or maybe they just expect better from the US and other Western nations that profess to be better and state that they are trying to avoid casualties, while the likes of Syria are clearly intending to cause them)

fwiw killing journalists /= killing civilians in the world of realpolitik. not saying I agree with this evaluation, but they are viewed differently.

A United Nations report concluded on Thursday that Syria had committed “gross human rights violations” as a matter of state policy, as the country’s forces continued attacks in Homs

The last few days have been really depressing

yeah.

otoh it's kind of surprising that this was the first Arab Spring uprising-type thing to go, really REALLY bad. Like, I would not have put odds on the successful overthrow of Qaddafi or Mubarak a few years ago.

so this conference today seems like a pretty clear signal that ramping up for full-scale civil war is imminent...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/world/middleeast/friends-of-syria-gather-in-tunis-to-pressure-assad.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2

Russia has said it will not attend the Tunisia meeting and news reports on Thursday said China had not committed, blunting the gathering’s chances of securing strong action against Mr. Assad’s government.

...

The photographer and Ms. Colvin had been working in a makeshift media center that was destroyed in the assault. Activists said that the center had been targeted and that Syrian reconnaissance aircraft had probably spotted satellite transmitters on the roof of the building where it was located. The government denied targeting journalists.

One of the wounded journalists, Edith Bouvier, 31, is a freelance reporter for the French newspaper Le Figaro. Videos on YouTube showed her and Paul Conroy, a photographer who lives in Britain, appealing for help.

One of the videos also shows a Syrian man in medical scrubs and a stethoscope who seconded Ms. Bouvier’s call for immediate evacuation and said her life was in danger. “We need help to stop the bombardments and save Edith,” the man said in Arabic.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/friends-of-syria-to-call-for-un-to-start-planning-syria-peacekeeping-mission/2012/02/24/gIQA0LUdXR_story_1.html

Despite the show of unity, which diplomats said they hoped would impress upon Assad that the end of his family’s four-decade autocratic rule is inevitable and at hand, there were signs of division. Some nations argued for arming Assad’s foes, while others called for the creation of protected humanitarian corridors to deliver aid.
Neither idea was included in the conference’s final document, which instead focused on steps nations should take to tighten the noose on the regime, including boycotting Syrian oil, imposing travel and financial sanctions on Assad’s inner circle, and working with the opposition to prepare for a post-Assad Syria, including lucrative commercial deals. It also welcomed the appointment of former U.N. chief Kofi Annan to be a joint U.N.-Arab League special envoy for Syria.

This whole Paul Conroy situation appears to have become a massive clusterfuck.

What do you mean? British Sunday Times photographer Paul Conroy is no longer in Syria, having been smuggled out of the besieged city of Homs and the Syrian constitutional referendum passed, all is good!

Oh, At least 59 Syrian civilians and soldiers were killed on Sunday

Bodies found dumped. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-activists-dozens-of-bodies-found-near-homs-in-one-of-worst-mass-killings-of-conflict/2012/02/27/gIQANnebeR_story.html?hpid=z1

7,500+

Maybe we should start arming the opposition even if we know nothing about them. Likely not to be worse, right?

from what I can tell there are PLENTY of weapons in Syria, the bigger issue is probably organizational - safe communications, supply lines, etc.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/02/29/venezuela-aids-syria-regime-with-fuel-shipments/

This does not help

http://news.yahoo.com/terrified-residents-syrian-border-cities-quseirare-fleeing-lebanon-103500866.html

Not entirely convinced given the sources (Stratfor via Wikileaks, Jerusalem Post), but anyway:

Alawite defections from Syrian army may be on rise

In a video posted on the Internet, Abdo Hussameldin, the deputy oil minister, said he had defected from President Bashar al-Assad’s government, making him one of the highest-ranking civilian officials to bail on Mr. Assad in the increasingly chaotic insurgency, which the United Nations estimates has left at least 7,500 people dead.

But
http://www.newsroomamerica.com/story/222843/u.s._officials_warn_against_syrian_intervention.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/egypts-ngo-raids-are-a-full-frontal-assault-on-civil-society/2012/03/11/gIQAP1jx5R_story.html

This is the 2nd piece I have read suggesting that Fayza Aboulnaga, Egypt’s minister for planning and international cooperation, a holdover from the Mubarak regime, is a problematic presence

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/12/analysis-stopping-syria-via-russia/

We'll see if US efforts to get Russia to alter their view will work. I'm skeptical

The Obama administration has decided to resume funding for Egypt’s military and will bypass congressional requirements that U.S. officials certify the country’s progress toward democracy, according to Capitol Hill aides.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-to-resume-aid-to-egypt/2012/03/22/gIQA3B3UUS_story.html

This decision seems wrong to me

The post-Gaddaffi Libyan situation has now created chaos in Mali

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46813540

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-running-out-of-ammunition-as-government-presses-offensive/2012/03/22/gIQA05CNUS_story.html

Can I advocate supporting the Syrian rebels without sounding like a neo-con and their not well thought out ideas regarding Iraq, Iran and Syria?

x-post-I guess that Malian coup will prevent the election scheduled there in around a month

So I am sure the EU's new sanctions on Assad's wife will cause her hubby to give up.

The £3,795 that Asma Assad spent on a pair of Christian Louboutin shoes with crystal heels, or the £29,200 she spent on candlesticks and chandeliers from Paris, were just a fraction of the real price that Syria’s First Lady will have to pay for such excesses. They are about to cost her

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-accepts-annans-peace-plan-china-russia-also-on-board/2012/03/27/gIQAjav7dS_story.html

I knew it, his wife made him do this. (yes I am kidding )

crystal heels....

He's gonna break this deal though, the question is how soon

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-soft-landing-for-syria-that-could-oust-assad/2012/03/28/gIQAKhkNhS_story.html?hpid=z3

W. Post columnist is optimistic about this plan (but no mention of candlesticks, chandeliers, and crystal heels)

US State Department folks were on NPR this morning defending the renewal of US military aid to Egypt. An Egyptian blogger who was interviewed (and who had been previously jailed) disagreed.

http://www.negrophonic.com/2012/cairo-city-of-sand/

DJ Rupture's week in Cairo

via Greenwald, long NYT Mag piece on lawlessness and militia rule in post-Qaddafi Libya:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/magazine/in-libya-the-captors-have-become-the-captive.html

Also, from Tuesday's NYT:

Truckloads of armed men attacked the Tripoli headquarters of Libya’s interim prime minister on Tuesday, in a new demonstration of the lawlessness pervading the capital just weeks before a scheduled national election. . . . Security in the capital is negligible, and gunfights between armed groups from rival neighborhoods or towns are a frequent occurrence in its streets. . . .

“You know that security here is a big joke,” Fathi Baja, a council member, said at the time. With an antiaircraft gun mounted on a pickup truck, he said, “you can do whatever you want — nobody can stop you.”

So Greenwald is pointing out that Libya is now chaotic. Ok. But if the US and the others involved in getting rid of Q, had instead decided to stick around to help maintain order in the transition, wouldn't Greenwald be grumbling about the US and Western powers being in yet another country?

Or is he arguing that a Q dictatorship was preferable in a Mussolini trains run on time kinda way.

this seems stupid. of course it's chaotic, they're remaking their country after 50 years.

it's the NYT not GG dooing the reporting.... All that's being illustrated is you don't get to go "yay, victory, democracy via bombs and an execution, cue Star Wars medal theme."

so, Rumsfeld-style "messiness"

pretty sure 99% of democracies started with bombs/executions tbh

generally speaking peaceful transitions from one form of government to another don't happen

Around 1/3 of Americans were loyalists during the Revolution and many were tarred and feathered (usually fatally) and forcibly disposssed of their property. Also, the Whiskey Rebellion....

I want Libya's Thomas Jefferson and "yay democracy" now(we'll ignore some of TJ's faults)

Perhaps someone who know Libya's people, and who saw the mistakes in Iraq, can make a case that the US and the West could have avoided some (but not all) of this Rumsfeld style messyiness and aided in a transition by doing x, y and z, and getting a, b, and c involved.

http://www.afriquejet.com/libya-nears-key-moment-in-democratic-transition-2012051138274.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0927/Lessons-for-US-in-Libya-s-transition-Avoid-mistakes-of-Iraq-Afghanistan

Election in Egypt today. Runoff likely

DJ Rupture on Egyptian radio in below link

http://www.negrophonic.com/2012/radio-cairo/

"It is a shock. I don't want either one, so I am not going to vote."
AHMED KABANY, an engineer, on the upcoming Egyptian election for president, in which a hardline Islamist is facing off against an authoritarian former general.

from NY Times

and there's this bit of sad, horrible news too

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/bombardment-of-syrian-village-leaves-more-than-90-dead-activists-say/2012/05/26/gJQAQcwBsU_story.html

32 children under the age of 10 killed

WTF WTF WTF