2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

Biden with the zingers

I got also a bridge I got to sell you and guess what? It's in Alaska, and it goes to nowhere."

This sort of reads like an excerpt from that George Saunders piece about Palin.

if McCain was smart they'd have Palin going after Biden's MBNA whoredom.

Fortunately, McCain is not smart.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/wo0i6gjglukrrl2a8zdiza.gif

Back, I say!

Yes!

http://gawker.com/5051193/sarah-palins-personal-emails

http://www.deviantart.com/download/75512801/Custom_Ghost_Rider_Super_Hero_by_Shin_Goji.jpg

a bunch of /b/tards spent weeks working on a fake e-mail account to make it look like it belonged to somebody else? you don't say

http://pastebin.com/f652c44fb

"tl;dr"

#
- A poster on /b/ did a lookup on the cellphone number which returned this information:
#

#
Type: Cell Phone
#
Provider: Dobson Cellular Systems
#
Location: Palmer, AK
#

hackers are lame

haha my manager sent me that link

haha! haha

ha
ha

a bunch of /b/tards spent weeks working on a fake e-mail account to make it look like it belonged to somebody else? you don't say

it could be a fake (i mean, she seems to have made plenty of enemies in alaska) but whoever's faking it isn't a /b/tard, unless they've been obsessing over chicky for a whole helluva lot longer than she's been a national figure. the account dates back a long while...

whatever, the tragedy is that it's the world's most boring e-mail.

also that ppl are ringing up bristol palin's cellphone, which is just assholery.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/08/03/magazine/03trolls-600.jpg

haha
i never noticed the anon mask in the background

who is winning teh game

McCrazy still 58% likely winner?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/morning-musings.html

Democrats are like Cubs fans -- they assume that something will go wrong until proven otherwise.

no one else is showing numbers like that, morbius.

but it's Nate Silver!

boy, West Va. is solidly red? Those Dems and their grassroots, I tell ya...

(also, the "win pct" on that site is not the popular vote projection. I think it's the likelihood of who wins? today?)

Correct.

Silver hasn't updated his numbers since yesterday, tho.

538's model is still weighted in favor of polling numbers which rely on information about voters who were already registered for 2006, 2004, etc. Gallup is the only polling organization I know of that calls cell phones.
This is also the first time Silver's done politics AFAIK.

Meaning there should be a "beta" somewhere in his site logo

they are pretty conservative about moving their numbers around so I'd say their projection is still deep in GOP-convention-bounce land

the ground that Obama seems to have gained back as reflected in the daily tracker won't show up on their site until there are some more recent state polls

right, it seems like it's a couple days behind everyone else's projections. but everyone is always wrong anyway.

Yeah, the election is going to be close, but whatever anguish you're feeling about current polling is best used as a motivator to go out and volunteer, donate, etc.

I only trust David Silver.

go out and volunteer, donate, etc.

Deck chairs, Titanic, etc.

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Entertainment/abc_david_070730_ssh.jpg

"It's the economy, stupid!"

morbius, are you a republican or a democrat or an independent or another thing I didn't mention?

hes a DOCTOR

"I'm a drunkard."

and a Groucho Marxist

http://www.myvillage.com/images/celebs/photos/doctor-who2.jpg

Blasphemy.

he's a grouch but he's our grouch

http://people.bath.ac.uk/ch1os/whittlesey/steveo%20the%20grouch.jpg

I'm in RI so my presidential vote is highly irrelevant, but I am considering agitating in NH for obama. I mean, I understand the "more of the same, politicians cut from the same cloth" attitude, but I'd really like to avoid the possibility of having abortion become illegal and creationism become required teaching in elementary school during my lifetime.

under the palin presidency, natch

lol panic

we can always do much better than the current democratic party, in whatever state it's in. however, we can do much much worse than having expanded democratic control, in any context.

the 538 modeling is some kind of magical state-by-state algebra. those guys are always pretty circumspect about it, even though it is the raison d'etre of the whole site. better to read their parsing of the polls, i think.

it's not a 58% probability of a win, it's a win in 58% of silver's models, which are based upon a combination of recent national and state-based polling, trends in polling (hello mccain bounce), and a regression model based on how states have voted in the past. it doesn't reflect the fact that, for instance, the difference between Dem and GOP voter registration in NV this year is more than twice the margin by which Bush beat Kerry last time.

the state of the race, afaic, is that Obama has effectively won 264 electoral votes (counting MI, NH, IA and NM) and we're waiting for NV to give us a tie and/or CO, VA or OH to put us over the top. McCain is leading by a few in OH, but CO and VA appear to be right on the edge, with Obama perhaps holding a small lead in the former.

i thought ARG's polls were kinda worthless in the primary, but here's some state-by-states they put out today:

CO: McCain 46-44
MO: McCain 50-45
MT: McCain 49-47
NV: McCain 49-46
NM: Obama 51-44
OH: McCain 50-44
WV: McCain 49-45

I keep seeing the same electoral map as 2000.

Rove's map says the tossups are CO, MI, NV, OH, PA and VA

CNN/Time polls just out

Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47 (ARG says its McCain 52-41)
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47