2008 Primaries Thread

similar with thatcher here in the UK (cf Blair in 96/7?)...

http://www.slate.com/id/2101842/

yeah, too bad hitchy's take on the boob doesn't stick.
m.

Yeah, I was just thinking today about how there must have been a tipping point in the last couple of years where dem. strategists decided they had lost the fight on Reagan and decided to coopt him instead.

Have Republicans always been willing to say a few nice things about JFK or is that a recent thing?

It's popular to regard him as the last 'tough' national security Dem, but I don't think there's too many people who'd want to run against the '64 map either.

heh:

One could go on. I only saw him once up close, which happened to be when he got a question he didn't like. Was it true that his staff in the 1980 debates had stolen President Carter's briefing book? (They had.) The famously genial grin turned into a rictus of senile fury: I was looking at a cruel and stupid lizard. His reply was that maybe his staff had, and maybe they hadn't, but what about the leak of the Pentagon Papers? Thus, a secret theft of presidential documents was equated with the public disclosure of needful information. This was a man never short of a cheap jibe or the sort of falsehood that would, however laughable, buy him some time.

The fox, as has been pointed out by more than one philosopher, knows many small things, whereas the hedgehog knows one big thing. Ronald Reagan was neither a fox nor a hedgehog. He was as dumb as a stump. He could have had anyone in the world to dinner, any night of the week, but took most of his meals on a White House TV tray. He had no friends, only cronies. His children didn't like him all that much. He met his second wife—the one that you remember—because she needed to get off a Hollywood blacklist and he was the man to see. Year in and year out in Washington, I could not believe that such a man had even been a poor governor of California in a bad year, let alone that such a smart country would put up with such an obvious phony and loon.

This article analyzes the GOP race correctly, I think. There are three groups: Nat'l Security GOP voters (who favor McCain), Economic GOP voters (who favor Romney) and Social Conservative GOP voters (who favor Huckabee). The voters in the final two categories would likely unite against McCain if Huckabee (who can't pick up the Economic GOP voters) dropped out. And these factions, together, they would -- easily, I think -- beat McCain.

So, at this point, Huckabee = Dud.

Also, I hadn't realized that S.Car. was an open primary. Still, it gives McCain significant momentum going into Super Tuesday.

Since SC is open, does that mean independents can vote one week in the GOP primary and then come back the following week and vote in the DEM primary? Surely not.

There are three groups: Nat'l Security GOP voters (who favor McCain), Economic GOP voters (who favor Romney) and Social Conservative GOP voters (who favor Huckabee).

yes, we know

The voters in the final two categories would likely unite against McCain if Huckabee (who can't pick up the Economic GOP voters) dropped out.

likely? mccain and romney will surely fight for the social conservative vote, and romney may have a leg up, but there's still lingering distrust there, and mccain has made some decent plays in that territory. remember also that there are a fair number of Feb 5 states in which social conservatives are not a major factor.

how problematic would the latino vote be for obama? how likely is it that he would pick a latino running mate? how likely is it that would be richardson (http://www.westerndemocrat.com/2008/01/obama-richardso.html) as opposed to salazar (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/01/04/salazar_says_hes_available_for_veep.html)? recall where our convention is.

gabbneb if u had to pic who you think is gonna take the nomination are you behind our dude obama or do you think hillary's probably gonna lock it up

hillary

"Perhaps if Obama spoke more forcefully about the hundreds of thousands of nonviolent drug offenders who were not as fortunate as he, and are now locked up in jail, he might gain a bit more credibility and support from those who accuse him of being devoid of substance.

Obama is fortunate he wasn't busted during Bill Clinton's years in office. Clinton left behind a larger, darker prison population than when he took office. Black incarceration rates during the Clinton years surpassed those during Ronald Reagan's eight years. That Clinton did nothing about mandatory minimum sentences was no surprise. That he did nothing to change the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine that disproportionately affects African Americans was no surprise. That he successfully stumped for "three strikes and you're out " in the crime bill, for restrictions on the right of habeas corpus and expansion of the federal death penalty was no surprise. When he came into office one in four black men were in the talins of the criminal justice system in some way; when he left, it was one in three. In many states ex-felons are denied the right to vote, a factor that had a direct impact on the 2000 presidential vote in Florida."

http://www.counterpunch.org/bliss01212008.html

I’ve been skeptical of an Obama/Salazar nomination since it was first discussed on Meet the Press a year or two ago. If Senator Salazar is in the conscious of any Democrat, it is either for:

1. Introducing and supporting former Attorney General Gonzales.
2. Lambasting MoveOn and the anti-war movement for supporting Ned Lamont against Senator Lieberman.

This isn’t to say he hasn’t been an excellent senator, he has, but Obama will need to strengthen the base by selecting an experienced, and beloved liberal. Frankly, it might be wise to look at former politicians, not contemporary ones.

One more comment about playing the Latino vote. If we’re serious about playing racial politics to gain a Democratic advantage we should be putting pressure on Governor Richardson to run against Senator Domenici. This is a winnable seat for Richardson.

Oops. Not run against, but run for Domenici’s seat. Obviously.

boy do i hate 'conscious' as noun. i agree that richardson should run for domenici's seat (and don't think of him as a great veep candidate). i also probably agree that obama may/should pick an experienced former politician. i don't agree necessarily that that candidate will/should be a base-reassuring liberal. i think the closest you'll get is an outspoken older type who is credible on non-ideological grounds like bradley or gore.

salazar wouldn't be my favorite veep pick, but i wouldn't mind him either. he would certainly reinforce the this-is-not-the-old-democratic-party message.

People are underestimating the Democrats ability to combust. More so than the dramatically fractured Republicans, I believe the Democrats will be unable to fully compromise on a candidate.

Senator Obama and Clinton’s supporters detest each other with a fervor that I believe to be unmatched in the Republican party, or by any prior Democratic contest and supporters of John Edwards are simply confused to why the Democratic party has shifted from its historical values.

Whomever is nominated will have to do the impossible task of reuniting their party. A task becoming increasingly difficult when primary margins are shrinking rather than widening.

While we can speak specifically to the nuances that push Clinton to the left of Obama or vice versa I think the flag-barer Democratic blocs, who have thus far been somewhat underrepresented, see both as too moderate to represent their long-held Democratic values. A liberal on the bottom of the ticket will go a long way to bringing together the party.

There’s certainly the issue that no one clearly stands out as a potential running mate for Obama. Simply put, there’s too many shortages in his potential candidacy that would usually be filled by their vice presidency for one person, and those who come close tend to be supporters of Clinton or Edwards. As soon as a potential name is brought up it takes no-time to shoot it down.

Frankly its reminiscent of President Bush. Remember when Lynne Cheney seemed like a likely choice for his running mate?

I think the flag-barer Democratic blocs, who have thus far been somewhat underrepresented, see both as too moderate to represent their long-held Democratic values

RONG

Um, OK? Why?

flag-barer?

Pete Domenici just announced he'll be retiring because of some disease or another.

is obama connected w/the dlc?

is obama connected w/the dlc?

No.

obama has the endorsement of the 5 most liberal senators. i think its pretty clear where he stands even if goofy edwards supporters still dont get it and confuse juvenile us-against-them confrontationalism w/ "real liberal" values

Governor Romney paid tribute to Martin Luther King, Jr. when speaking to a group of employees at Gate Petroleum today and then shook hands and posed for photos with African-American families at a parade....

He jumped off the Mitt Mobile to greet a waiting crowd, took a picture with some kids and young adults and awkwardly quipped, ”Who let the dogs out? Who who.”

He took pictures with many in the crowd and greeted one baby wearing a necklace saying, “Hey buddy! How’s it going? What’s happening? You got some bling bling here!”

Romney even received some hugs, but some Obama supporters held up signs and one woman yelled, “Mitt Romney go home. You are holding up the parade!” Once the parade did start Romney hopped back on the Mitt Mobile and headed to his next stop.

video here: http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/01/21/romney-who-let-the-dogs-out/

is it too much to hope that b.g. beats mitt romney to death for that

started to watch video, had to shut it off before wincing could start

awkwardly quipped, ”Who let the dogs out? Who who.”

seriously wtf so hard to know who to hate more, him or giuliani.

THIS GUY!

the scariest thing is that the kids seem to like him... i can imagine romney getting 10-20% of the black vote against hillary if the racist-clinton stuff sticks

Are you gonna post that on your 'evidence to stop Romney from getting elected' thread?

I don't think the guy stands a fucking chance, personally.

kids like romney?

or are they just scared of hilary?

i still want him to get the nom because i think hes more beatable than mccain and because dude would provide nonstop lolz but i dont think its necessarily a slamdunk

lol, i love romney even more now

what are the odds theres a serious romney skeleton in the closet? unlike giuliani or really any other GOP dude i think even just a tiny bit of infidelity or ugly personal stuff will sink mitt's whole appeal

a few people have speculated that the unnamed-candidate-scandal story concerns him, but it would seem like what-if-ism

i know its 99% improbable but i still hold on to my initial feeling that hes got a big child porn collection or something

he smoked once. in high school.

what are the odds theres a serious romney skeleton in the closet? unlike giuliani or really any other GOP dude i think even just a tiny bit of infidelity or ugly personal stuff will sink mitt's whole appeal

0.01%

he once smelled coffee

my guess is he's easier to beat because he's less known, a mormon, an obviously shameless panderer, awkward at times, kind of a weirdo, and maybe there are more than a few republicans who like ethan just don't like a dude in a starched shirt and tie. i'm probably wrong, but i flirt with fearing him less than others in office because of what i take as his empirical orientation. i'm not gonna say that he's a fake republican or anything other than a consultant justifying whatever ends the party establishment prefers, but i do have a sense he may really believe in research, tho i suppose his tendency to make fine rhetorical distinctions should remind me less of an academic and more of the current truthiness regime.

he once lived in France. really.

Massachusetts too i hear

Giuliani: "Florida counts, and I'm counting on Florida. Both ways."

"i'm probably wrong, but i flirt with fearing him less than others in office because of what i take as his empirical orientation. i'm not gonna say that he's a fake republican or anything other than a consultant justifying whatever ends the party establishment prefers, but i do have a sense he may really believe in research, tho i suppose his tendency to make fine rhetorical distinctions should remind me less of an academic and more of the current truthiness regime."

what are you talking about?

romney perfectly fits the 80s movie frat/jock archetype

staying on message - http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/01/poll_shows_rudy.html