2008 Primaries Thread

not in michigan, no

Ahh, I assume this has to do with the state's early-primary hijinx?

Mitt!

So, is it fair to say, at this point, that on the GOP side either there's no frontrunner or it's Romney? Every big contest has been won by a different candidate, and Romney has won 2.

If Huckabee wins S.C. and Fla., where does the GOP race stand? I can't see Huckabee winning it, but maybe. Maybe . . . a brokered convention?

"well last election it was the fags, this time let's use the beaners"
-- Shakey Mo Collier, Tuesday, January 15, 2008 6:47 PM (Yesterday)

Why they'd mess with a winning formula now is beyond me.

I guess plenty of Dem voters were urged to vote for Mitt just to keep him in the raise longer. Actually, I would have done the same thing. Why not throw support behind the guy who can never ever be elected yet will be in there long enough to draw fire from the other two GOP types?

Michigan's open GOP primary is kind of like that; it allowed me and several other thousand registered Democrats to vote for McCain in 2000, helping him to win that state.

these minor-candidate-free debates are great

so did I miss anything besides or I should take gabbneb at face value?

jesus, we must endure Romney for a little while longer, and The Corner's crowing for lots longer. Mark Levin:

I never thought a president would be impeached in my lifetime, but Clinton was (and should have been). I never thought a president would be elected again without winning the popular vote, but Bush was (and legitimately so). I never thought the continental United States could be struck as it was on September 11, 2001. I have to say — at least at this point — that I don't believe it is impossible for the Republican nomination to be settled at the convention. I'm not saying it will, but it can't be completely ruled out.

Sullivan quotes this letter:

(1) Romney's supporters consist overwhelmingly of the Republicans who still like Bush (as, to a lesser extent, do Huckabee's). McCain and (of course) Paul draw their vote from the Republicans and Independents who don't like him.

(2) The exit poll of that weird race on the Democratic side indicates that ultimately Hillary will beat Uncommitted by only about 13 points -- her 2 to 1 current lead is simply because the returns from Detroit are always the last to come in, and blacks are overwhelmingly voting Uncommitted because they're not allowed to vote for Obama. (The exit poll also indicates that, if Obama had gotten on the ballot, Hillary would have beaten him about 45-37, with Edwards getting 12%.) But poor people in general definitely prefer Hillary, as they did in Iowa and New Hampshire -- which means that poor Democratic whites must be going for her overwhelmingly.

So the odds are rapidly growing that the Democrats will end up getting entangled in a really vicious racial fight for the nomination -- blacks and well-off reformers overwhelmingly for Obama, poor and lower-middle class whites overwhelmingly for Hillary -- with serious repercussions for November.

(3) Indeed, the main message of this latest fight is that things may end up changing politically in this country a lot less than commentators have been saying. We may very well end up seeing a Romney vs. Hillary race, despite the unpopularity of both among the American people as a whole, simply because the majority of Republicans still like Bush and therefore like Romney, while the majority of Democrats still like Bill Clinton and so like Hillary -- with the majority of Americans in the middle of the spectrum getting shut out of the process completely, as they usually do. And we may also end up seeing a revival of the brutal racial split between white and black Democrats that people were beginning to think was finally buried. Plus ca change...

Hillary: "John, who is, as we know, the son of a mill worker..."

awesome

from the Times today...

Ms. Ramsey, 59, is supporting Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. She likes him, she said, but she is also tired of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and her husband, Bill Clinton, the former President. "Hillary and Bill, we've done that," Ms. Ramsey said."

wotta sexist

alfred's post is :(

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/15/a_brokered_convention_consider.html

We're going to be hearing pretty soon about the genius of the Rudy strategy--hoping that the early contests will produce no clear front runner, waiting for moderate, delegate-rich states to vote.

70% of African-Americans in Michigan voted for uncommitted over Hillary Clinton. Not a good sign for her.

Brad Delong compares the stimulus approaches - http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2008/01/economic-stimul.html

We're going to be hearing pretty soon about the genius of the Rudy strategy--hoping that the early contests will produce no clear front runner, waiting for moderate, delegate-rich states to vote.

It's certainly true that you couldn't have set it up for Giuliani any better: No single frontrunner emerging and a dire need for an establishment-backed, delagate rich alternative to Mike Huckabee.

Rudy is over. They have John McCain now.

(and Huckabee. and Romney. etc.)

You're probably right about Giuliani, Gabb. I'm just saying that this is probably what he would have hoped for, short of him doing very well in early states where he basically conceeded the contest and didn't campaign. It's just not a very good strategy.

blacks and well-off reformers overwhelmingly for Obama, poor and lower-middle class whites overwhelmingly for Hillary

This is true. I've begun to see Obama as a "Bill Bradley plus" candidate, basically as outlined above. Like Bradley, he has the highly-educated, high-information voter (cutting across racial lines), but perhaps unlike Bradley, he can also draw a significant block of African-American voters who don't already fall into the "Bradley constituency."

But (a) the key may be Hispanic voters who aren't already in the "Bradley constituency," (b) seeing Obama this way makes him look less like a transformative figure and more like a candidate that pops up in every Presidential cycle, with traditionally limited appeal and (c) it highlights a criticism of Obama that I liked to upthread (that, for any number of reasons, he doesn't tap into the outrage of the Democratic base as well as, say, HRC or Edwards).

Depressing, since I have such high hopes for Obama. If Obama wins the next two contests, tho, he can regain that momentum moving into Super Tuesday. But I see that HRC's national support has recently neared 50% of Democrats again, which means Obama probably has a hard road to travel.

yea, if obama doesn't get SC or nevada, i think he's pretty much done - not that he doesn't have a strong chance of winning those states, though. it does sadden me though that HRC is probably going to be the nominee.

Yeah, I think that's true. He's sort of a "movement" candidate, and he needs to ride that wave. But I think he has a very good shot at winning both contests.

are you guys talking about what they call "common wisdom"?

i mean what a bullshit phrase and oxymoron to boot.

http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Stop hurting America, Tucker.

Zogby: Clinton and Obama tied nationally; Obama leads in Clinton's age demo

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1554681020080116

i'm sorry if this was already done but it's too funny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKsoXHYICqU

being that ppl actually pay attention to like current events, y'all have probably seen it like 20 times, but it just made my mornin ; )

Hillary: "John, who is, as we know, the son of a mill worker..."

Admittedly, not bad for a race-baiting, change-agent elitist c*nt who just found her voice.

Except I'm not sure she was consciously trying to be funny.

You then, must see the continuing saga of Obama Girl.

She rocks.

(xp)

yes i just saw that, how funny!!

wait, guyz, this is too funny! you hafta see this! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDwODbl3muE&feature=related

was that Tracy Flick/Hillary video from slate posted upthread? (i can't be "arsed" to look) pretty obvious but i lolled.

For Elmo: The Adventures of Conventional Wisdom Man.

haha: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/mccain-campaign-responds-to-mailing-in-sc/

“Today, a shadowy political organization calling itself ‘Vietnam Veterans Against McCain’ launched a vicious attack on John McCain in an attempt to impugn his character in the closing days of the South Carolina Republican Primary,” Orson Swindle, who was a fellow prisoner of war in Vietnam with Mr. McCain, said in a statement put out by the campaign. “The group claims that John McCain turned his back on his fellow POWs in order to save his own skin.”

There's something just so hilariously lazy about some of these jerk-offs thinking, "well, hell, it worked last time, let's do it again"

"Orson Swindle"

OMG. Jim Pinkerton, new advisor to Mike Huckabee, on how he (and, presumably, Huckabee) would deal with American Muslims.

Orson Swindle sounds like a failed porn name.

^^^lolz

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/cin_wasmccainbrainswashed.htm

http://www.madore.org/~david/images/cards/english/queen-diamonds.png

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080116/capt.dfdb107a18814ba597d5f66388e00a54.huckabee_2008_scab238.jpg?x=400&y=248&sig=hPdIbWXlO0nE_Ixw2bdq8g--

He looks like the grinch.

http://churche.home.mindspring.com/tb/irish.jpg

http://rofl.wheresthebeef.co.uk/McCain%20Angry.jpg

http://www.doublespeakshow.com/images/2006/08/mccain_wow.jpg

http://tusb.stanford.edu/mccain0508.jpg

oh my wau

http://www.stanforddaily.com/article/2008/1/16/editorialChelseaLacksClassAtExclusiveEvent

http://nymag.com/arts/theater/features/42753/

yes, that's exactly what she said