2008 USP(G)ET pt. II: counting the days to 2012 primary thread 1

How dare you mock this man's credentials.

http://www.leighbureau.com/data/speaker/DHoltzEakin_full.jpg

It's amazing to me that in the face of the rising drumbeat of bad economic news, dramatic Wall Street failures, etc., McCain's poll numbers are holding up and even improving. There is some serious decoupling going on here. Whatever Obama is doing to try and paint McCain as out of touch on the economy doesn't seem to be working. Maybe he needs a new tack. I don't think endlessly replaying clips of McCain saying that the fundamentals of the economy are strong is working.

He shouldn't let McCain get away with blaming the current crisis on Wall Street "greed" when his tax plan would reward the elite at the expense of middle-class Americans. If McCain is against greed so much, why doesn't he support reforming the carried interest loophole that allows private-equity hedge fund managers to pay far lower tax rates than their janitors and secretaries. The fact is that McCain subscribes to the economic philosophy that greed is good - that greed at the top drives economic growth, so those at the top should be given a break.

It's amazing to me that in the face of the rising drumbeat of bad economic news, dramatic Wall Street failures, etc., McCain's poll numbers are holding up and even improving. There is some serious decoupling going on here.

Or maybe you need to wait more than a day for the polls to reflect what's going on?

haha. What's the URL for that blog where they pore over and aggregate polls?

Something with a number in the title.

Jeez, how long do we need to wait? It's been going on for months!

xpost.

I knmow of two: fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com

www.fivethirtyeight.com

538 was the one I was thinking of. Thanks to you both.

In the most recent Gallup poll I've seen on this issue, from Sep. 5-7, McCain had gained ground dramatically on Obama on the question of who could better handle the economy. Maybe that was just a temporary post-convention bounce, but it's worrying.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110170/Economy-McCain-Gains-Ground-Obama.aspx

That probably reflects the mindset that either of them would be fucked when dealing with this mess.

It's also possible that from where most Americans are sitting the economic situation may appear to be improving. In places like New York the failure of Lehman looms large, but in middle America, things like falling gas prices and lower mortgage rates may seem more important.

I'd swear you people don't remember '00 and '04.

Sure I remember. 2000 didn't matter and 2004 was the one where no one was going to fall for Bush again.

mccain is dropping in the polls as of yesterday, I believe. cnn reported that his convention bounce was basically gone; palin's favoribility rating has plummeted; trendlines are in obama's favor, and he's up in Virginia.

Yea, Joe FlyoverState moves a little slower on stuff than we do.

I'd swear you people don't remember '00 and '04.

One thing I remember from '00 was that Gore tacked left on economic issues in the final weeks, sounding much more populist with "people vs. the powerful" rhetoric, which helped his poll numbers, but not enough.

what I remember is the Republicans always sound desperate. That Gore & Kerry had teletoxic personalities didn't help, but sounding desperate usually works OK for them.

He shouldn't let McCain get away with blaming the current crisis on Wall Street "greed" when his tax plan would reward the elite at the expense of middle-class Americans. If McCain is against greed so much, why doesn't he support reforming the carried interest loophole that allows private-equity hedge fund managers to pay far lower tax rates than their janitors and secretaries. The fact is that McCain subscribes to the economic philosophy that greed is good - that greed at the top drives economic growth, so those at the top should be given a break.

you may be interested in the remarks Sen. Barack Obama (D - Ill.) delivered in colorado today

Those remarks:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/sep/16/prepared-remarks-senator-barack-obama-golden/

Am I the only one who thinks the term "economic philosophy" is a bit bland? For example: "We've had this philosophy for eight years. We know the results." Wouldn't "ideology" be better?

pretty amazing to compare all the specific policy prescriptions in Obama's speech vs. McCain's spokesman today talking about "I don’t think that it’s at this moment imperative to write down exactly what the plan has to be."

next pundit to say "when is Obama going to move from this amorphous hope/change message into specifics??" gets a kick in the nutz (saw Chris Matthews say this last night)

he says "ideological policies" later on, fwiw

Gotta start somewhere:

Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin will meet with foreign leaders next week at the United Nations, a move to boost her foreign-policy credentials, a Republican strategist said.

Republican candidate John McCain plans to introduce the Alaska governor to heads of state at the opening of the U.N. General Assembly, although specific names weren’t yet firmed up. “The meetings will give her some exposure and experience with foreign leaders,” the strategist said. “It’s a great idea.”

McCain and Palin are expected to visit the U.N. on Tuesday, when President George W. Bush will address the international body.

Since her nomination, Palin has energized the Republican base, drawn huge crowds and propelled fund-raising. However, Democrats have attacked her as weak on foreign policy experience. Even on last week’s “Saturday Night Live,” actress Tina Fey spoofed Palin’s assertion that she is familiar with issues involving Russia, noting that Alaska is nearby. “I can see Russia from my house!” Fey-as-Palin said.

But McCain advisers hope her U.N. visit will show how quickly Palin can make key connections and become well-versed in foreign-policy issues.

Yes, I think I'm going to visit the UN and put it on my CV: http://www.un.org/tours/pages/atg.htm

This would be a good time for everyone in the media to stop talking about Sarah Palin, just go dead silent on that whole stupid thing. Report instead on bank failures, and banks near failure, and losses in financial institutions, and losses in the stock market, and falling home prices, and rising bankruptcies, and report what McCain and Obama say in regard to these.

Seems certain to me that WaMu flames out in October, along with several other lesser names. The whole Palin issue will sink to insignificance in comparison.

When do the head-to-head debates start?

I've been telling myself that when the debates get going Obama will slaughter McCain then I have to remind myself how convinced I was that Kerry would make mincemeat out of Bush.

When do the head-to-head debates start?

A week from Friday. Plenty of things to amuse one until then, I suspect.

obama's not such a great debater, but mccain is a little bit worse. my guess is the debates will not change anything dramatically except to remind people recently enamored of john mccain exactly what he looks like.

i remember kerry making mincemeat out of bush, in the first debate in particular, and i also remember no one actually caring

obama is a better debater than kerry. obama wasn't very strong against Clinton, I thought, but he still won the primary. McCain is a fucking terrible speaker and debater.

in fact, wasn't the consensus that Kerry won every debate?

I just read Obama's speech on the Wall Street meltdown. Since I know relatively little about regulation or the invisible hand, almost every proposal made some kind of practical sense.

obama looked so-so against clinton--i dont think hes a fantastic off-the-cuff speaker, and not a great debater, but i dont think his campaign is depending on the debates in particular as part of the strategy

I'm waiting for the usual quadrennial special on presidential debates where they show that JFK won because Nixon was sweaty, Carter won because Ford didn't know Poland was occupied by Communists, Reagan won because there Carter goes again, Dukakis had no reaction to a question about his wife being raped and murdered, Bush I looked at his wristwatch, and Gore wore too much rouge.

because the 2004 debates proved that the worst performer can still win.

Even better than the actual debate would be getting to watch the pre-debate negotiations. I'm not sure how you even the playing field when one candidate is 6'1", mid-40s, and handsome and the other is 5'7", 103, and looks like a squash.

Ain't enough phone books in the world for that man to stand on.

in fact, wasn't the consensus that Kerry won every debate?

Yes, but the wins weren't accompanied by big gains in the polls.

My point was that I think I built it up into something significant - that Kerry would expose Bush as the imbecile 50% of the country already knew he was, and that the other 50% would slap their heads and wonder why the fuck they ever voted for him in the first place.

yeah the first Kerry/Bush debate was one of the worst performances I've ever seen by Bush. I thought Kerry won the election right then and there :/

the consensus was that kerry won every debate, but also that regular people don't care and maybe actively resent and distrust a good debater who knows stuff more than a good man who stands up and bumbles through etc etc

i mean, the cw responses to any debate outcome are predetermined

xps

bush was hella shorter than kerry btw and they seemed to manage

the filmed them so their heads were at the same level which meant that podium took up like 50% of the kerry shot and 80% of the bush shot

i remember kerry making mincemeat out of bush, in the first debate in particular, and i also remember no one actually caring

I remember thinking the same thing (re: Kerry handily beating Bush about the head, fuck you "wanna buy some wood?"), and losing my shit when all the post-debate coverage bent over backwards to give Bush AT WORST a draw.

loooool I forgot about wanna buy some wood

also the debates gave us perhaps GW's greatest contribution: "the internets"

http://www.bettybowers.com/graphics/but_poland.gif

but yeah I think press expectations are gonna be for Obama to beat McCain and for Biden to absolutely leave Palin in tatters so if either one of the Repubs even remotely holds their own it'll be "ooooh strong performance"

dmr sadly otm

David Brooks:

Sarah Palin has many virtues. If you wanted someone to destroy a corrupt establishment, she’d be your woman.

http://terminerd.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/linda-hamilton_as_sc.jpg

I keep reading this thread title as GET UPSET but i will not be drawn in

More Troopergate funnies.

Palin supports OTHER bridge to nowhere

lmao that's almost too perfect

Palin still supports the second bridge, officially named Don Young's Way in honor of the congressman.

I remember thinking the same thing (re: Kerry handily beating Bush about the head, fuck you "wanna buy some wood?"), and losing my shit when all the post-debate coverage bent over backwards to give Bush AT WORST a draw.

It's sometimes hard to remember now, but the media was licking Bush's ass pretty unquestioningly until the sight of dead bodies floating in New Orleans shocked them outta their fawning ways.

(It's also sometimes hard to remember that Kerry did fuck-all to distinguish himself from Bush)

Looks like McCain wears lifts:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/09/16/us/16mccain-531.jpg